Nasdaq & S&P 500 Fresh Highs, Gold Rebounds; FOMC Minutes in Focus

Key Takeaways:

  • Lower expectations for an immediate Fed rate hike revived risk appetite, lifting the Dow 0.49% while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit fresh highs ahead of earnings season.
  • The softer dollar helped gold recover, though its chart still shows a range rather than a confirmed breakout ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
  • Oil rebounded but remains in a falling channel, while Bitcoin’s pullback ahead of the FOMC Minutes reflects uneven sentiment across markets.

Today’s Focus: Today’s focus is Germany’s industrial production at 14:00 (GMT+8), followed by US EIA crude inventories at 22:30 (GMT+8) and one-year consumer inflation expectations at 23:00 (GMT+8). A production rebound could support the euro; a Lower-than-expected oil inventory draw could strengthen WTI’s price. US NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations in focus; higher inflation expectations would reinforce concerns about further Fed tightening, potentially lifting the dollar and yields while weighing on gold and equities.

 

Global Market Review 07/10/2026

  • Reduced expectations for an immediate Fed hike supported equities ahead of third-quarter earnings, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh highs.
  • EUR/USD recovered as French bond pressures eased and the dollar weakened.
  • The yen struggled to benefit from comments supporting future BoJ hikes.
  • Gold rebounded regardless of higher yields, while oil remained supported by supply uncertainty.
  • Bitcoin’s recovery remained limited by still-elevated borrowing costs.

 

Economic Calendar

Key Events on October 7 (GMT+8)

  • China Holiday – National Day Golden Week (final day)
Time (GMT+8)EventImportance
14:00Germany Industrial Production MoM AUG**
22:30US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change**
23:00US NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations SEP**

Key Events on October 8 (GMT+8)

Time (GMT+8)EventImportance
02:00US FOMC Minutes – Watch Fed policy outlook***
14:00Germany Balance of Trade AUG**
20:30US Initial Jobless Claims**

 

Markets Analysis 07/10/2026

EURUSD 4H chart for October 7 shows resistance at 1.1271-1.1313 and support at 1.1217-1.1176 with a short-term recovery bias.

  • Resistance: 1.1271 / 1.1313
  • Support: 1.1217 / 1.1176

Analyst View: The 4H chart shows a rebound within a falling channel, with price below the 1.1271–1.1313 resistance zone. Stronger German production could support another test of resistance. A break above 1.1313 would strengthen the recovery; failure to hold 1.1217 would expose 1.1176.

Bias: Short-term recovery; broader downtrend remains intact.

 

GBPUSD chart on October 7 shows resistance at 1.3316-1.3342 and support at 1.3206-1.3181 with a cautious recovery bias.

  • Resistance: 1.3316 / 1.3342
  • Support: 1.3206 / 1.3181

Analyst View: Sterling has bounced from support but remains inside a falling 4H channel. A sustained move above the intermediate 1.3290 level could open the 1.3316–1.3342 resistance zone. Renewed dollar strength could stall the rebound; a break below 1.3206 would bring 1.3181 into focus.

Bias: Cautious recovery within a broader downtrend.

 

USDJPY chart on October 7 showing support at

  • Resistance: 158.65 / 159.04
  • Support: 158.34 / 158.03

Analyst View: The pair is recovering within a rising 4H channel and testing support around 158.34. Holding this level would favor another attempt at 158.65, followed by 159.04. A break below 158.03 would weaken the recovery and expose 157.71, particularly if U.S. yields ease further.

Bias: Cautiously bullish while 158.03 holds.

 

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT) chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 105.43/107.71, support 100.95/98.06; bias moderately bullish.

  • Resistance: 91.85 / 93.02
  • Support: 89.22 / 88.03

Analyst View: WTI(USOIL) has rebounded from the lower edge of its falling 4H channel. A move above 90.67 could extend the recovery toward 91.85, with EIA inventories as the main catalyst. A larger inventory draw would favor upside. However, a break below 89.22 would test 88.03.

Bias: Short-term rebound; broader channel remains bearish.

 

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 4397/4424, support 4283/4256; bias mild rebound.

  • Resistance: 4,185 / 4,210
  • Support: 4,129 / 4,104

 

Spot Silver (XAG/USD) chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 65.20/65.80, support 62.68/62.08; bias mild rebound.

  • Resistance: 62.39 / 63.03
  • Support: 60.31 / 59.68

Analyst View: Gold remains in a shallow, falling 4H channel after rebounding from support. A break above 4,185 would open 4,210; below 4,129, watch 4,104. Silver is consolidating within a rising channel, with 61.75 an intermediate hurdle before 62.39–63.03. Higher U.S. inflation expectations could lift yields and pressure both recoveries.

Bias: Gold range-bound; silver cautiously constructive while support holds.

 

Dow Jones Futures chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 52773/53152, support 52395/52023; bias rebound likely limited.

  • Resistance: 51,670 / 51,928
  • Support: 51,094 / 50,835

Analyst View: Dow has rebounded from support toward the upper edge of its falling 4H channel. A break above 51,670 would open 51,928 and strengthen the recovery. Rejection at resistance, especially if inflation expectations lift yields, could trigger a return toward 51,094 and 50,835.

Bias: Recovery phase; resistance breakout needed for confirmation.

 

NASDAQ 100 chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 29104/29206, support 28878/28779; bias rebound likely limited.

  • Resistance: 31,337 / 31,420
  • Support: 31,083 / 30,973

Analyst View: Nasdaq 100 remains in a rising 4H channel but has pulled back after testing 31,337. Holding 31,083–30,973 would preserve the bullish structure. A break above 31,420 could extend the rally; higher inflation expectations and renewed yield pressure could deepen the pullback.

Bias: Bullish structure; near-term consolidation below resistance.

 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart, 14 Sept 2026: resistance 77841/78551, support 75551/74827; bias weak consolidation.

  • Resistance: 84970 / 85536
  • Support: 83127 / 82570

Analyst View: Bitcoin pulled back from $86,659 within a rising 4H channel and broke out of the $84,970–$84,403 initial support zone, failing to preserve the recovery structure and forming a new downward pattern. A reclaim of $86,659 could reopen the $87,369 level; a break below $83,127 would increase downside risk and test the last low at $82,570.

Bias: Near-term pullback; recovery depends on support holding.

Enjoy Trading!

About the author

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

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