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Hormuz Uncertainty Rises; RBA Decision in Focus

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

  • President Trump demanded compensation from Iran, adding uncertainty to negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rebounded sharply; U.S. equities fell; the dollar edged higher; while gold extended its rally to a nine‑week high.
  • Today’s focus: The RBA rate decision is expected to keep rates unchanged. Markets will watch whether the RBA maintains restrictive policy. If the RBA softens its hawkish stance or signals economic slowdown risks, AUD may face downside pressure. Conversely, if sticky inflation prompts continued hawkish rhetoric, AUD could benefit.

 

Global Market Review 11/08/2026

U.S. equities fell Monday, led by declines in Intel and other chipmakers. Dow ‑0.1%, S&P 500 ‑0.06%, Nasdaq ‑0.32%.

U.S. Treasuries fell, tracking weakness in European bonds. Dollar index +0.20%.

Gold extended gains to nine‑week highs.

Oil surged over 6% as U.S. and Iran exchanged compensation demands, clouding prospects of a Strait reopening deal.

 

Key Events Today:

  • Japan Holiday
  • 12:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***
  • 13:30 RBA Press Conference ***
  • 22:00 US Existing Home Sales JUL **

August 12（GMT+8）

  • 04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
  • 14:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY Final JUL **
  • 20:00 OPEC Monthly Report **
  • 20:30 US CPI YoY JUL ***
  • 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

 

Markets Analysis 11/08/2026

20260811 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1566 / 1.1581
  • Support: 1.1533 / 1.1518

EUR/USD slipped on Monday as Strait uncertainty indirectly supported the dollar.

Analyst View: Trading in range. Must hold 10‑day MA near 1.1530 to sustain consolidation. Awaiting U.S. CPI.

Bias: Range trading

20260811 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3558 / 1.3591
  • Support: 1.3483 / 1.3449

GBP/USD rose for two days, hitting highs since July 16, though momentum slowed ahead of U.S. CPI.

Analyst View: Holding above 1.3500, may test mid‑July highs. Watch resistance at 1.3558.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260811 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 160.05 / 160.89
  • Support: 158.06 / 157.40

Yen fell 0.96% on Monday, the biggest drop in five months. USD/JPY back above 159.

Analyst View: Testing 10‑day MA. Holding above could attract buyers toward 160.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260811 US Crude Oil Futures (SEP) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 83.61/85.08
  • Support: 79.15/77.31

Oil jumped to one‑week highs as compensation demands dimmed Strait reopening hopes.

Analyst View: Broke 10‑day MA, now near 20‑day MA. A breakout above could extend the rebound past $83.

Bias: Short‑term rebound

20260811 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4486 / 4552
  • Support: 4382 / 4317

20260811 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 67.53 / 68.53
  • Support: 65.29 / 64.27

Gold extended rally to nine‑week highs despite stronger dollar and oil. However, expect some positioning to grow cautious ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data.

Analyst View: Above $4,400, but pre-CPI caution may cap gains before $4,500.

Bias: Cautious follow‑through

20260811 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 54,377 / 54,583
  • Support: 53,708 / 53,498

Trump’s call for Iran reparations during Strait of Hormuz tensions dampened sentiment, with the Dow finishing flat after range-bound trading.

Analyst View: Likely narrow range until CPI. May test resistance above 54,000.

Bias: Range trading

20260811 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 29,869 / 30,203
  • Support: 29,443 / 29,110

A sell-off in AI chip stocks dragged down tech shares. Still, big tech saw Microsoft surge 5.71%, with Nasdaq retreating from a 3-day peak.

Analyst View: Stalled rally, facing resistance near 29,954. Likely range trading.

Bias: Range trading

20260811 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 64,569 / 65,125
  • Support: 63,327 / 62,762

Bitcoin slipped below $65k on Monday as an oil surge hurt risk sentiment. Strategy’s BTC sale added pressure.

Analyst View: Largest drop in two weeks, broke 10‑day MA. Staying below adds downside risk toward $63k.

Bias: Short‑term correction

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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