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Iran Plans New Hormuz Rules; Markets Eye U.S. Jobs Data

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

On Thursday, President Trump told reporters he believes the war with Iran will soon end. However, reports suggest Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit agreement would ban passage of “hostile” vessels. With markets awaiting today’s nonfarm payrolls, U.S. equities ended their rally, gold retreated from highs since June 18, while the dollar and oil rebounded.

Today’s focus: U.S. July nonfarm payrolls, seen as a critical test of labour market direction. Forecast: +80,000 jobs (prior +57,000), unemployment rate rising to 4.3% (prior 4.2%), average hourly earnings steady at +0.3% MoM. Against the backdrop of record equity highs, a soft dollar, and gold’s rebound, this report is the week’s global market centrepiece.

 

Global Market Review 07/08/2026

  • U.S. equities fell Thursday after strong gains earlier in the week. Markets watched for progress in U.S.–Iran peace talks and awaited payrolls. Dow ‑0.86%, S&P 500 ‑0.18%, Nasdaq ‑0.06%.
  • Treasury yields rose, dollar index +0.31%.
  • Gold turned lower after touching highs since June 18.
  • Oil rebounded on reports Iran is reviewing draft rules to ban U.S., Israeli, and other “hostile” ships from the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production JUN **
  • 20:30 US Non Farm Payrolls JUL ***
  • 20:30 US Unemployment Rate JUL ***
  • 20:30 CA Unemployment Rate JUL **

 

Key Data and Events Coming Week(GMT+8)

 

Monday: BoJ Summary of Opinions, EU Sentix Investor Confidence

  • Tuesday: RBA Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, US Existing Home Sales
  • Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, GERMANY CPI, US CPI
  • Thursday: GB GDP, Manufacturing & Industrial Production, EU Industrial Production, US PPI & Initial Jobless Claims
  • Friday: EU GDP, US Retail Sales & Michigan Consumer Sentiment

 

Markets Analysis 07/08/2026

20260807 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1549 / 1.1564
  • Support: 1.1484 / 1.1465

EUR/USD fell on Thursday near 1.1500, erasing much of earlier gains, ending a two‑day rally as markets awaited nonfarm payrolls.

Analyst View: Still within recent range. Payrolls will decide whether pair tests 10‑day MA support near 1.1490 or rebounds to range top.

Bias: Range consolidation

20260807 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3506 / 1.3533
  • Support: 1.3390 / 1.3363

GBP/USD fell to ~1.3450 Thursday. Renewed Middle East tensions and a dollar rebound pressured sterling.

Analyst View: Non-farm payrolls will determine whether the pair can defend 1.3400 MA support.

Bias: Narrow range consolidation

20260807 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 159.62 / 160.65
  • Support: 157.31 / 156.25

USD/JPY posted the biggest rebound of the week, extending recovery from intervention‑driven lows. Japan household spending fell for the seventh month, weakening BoJ hike odds.

Analyst View: Rebounded above 158 on Thursday. If momentum continues, may test 10‑day MA resistance near 159.75.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260807 US Crude Oil Futures (SEP) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 82.09 / 83.92
  • Support: 74.32 / 71.99

Reports Tehran seeks greater control over Gulf shipping, drafting rules to ban hostile vessels. Oil rebounded as traders priced geopolitical risk back in.

Analyst View: Oil recovered but remains in low range. Sustained tension could lift toward 10‑day MA resistance near $80.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260807 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4298 / 4326
  • Support: 4168 / 4139

20260807 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 63.27 / 64.26
  • Support: 60.02 / 59.01

Gold slipped on Thursday on a stronger dollar and oil rebound, after touching $4,300 highs since June 18.

Analyst View: Consolidating below highs ahead of non-farm payrolls. If the report eases hike expectations, gold may reclaim $4,300; otherwise risk of drop below $4,200.

Bias: Narrow range consolidation

20260807 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 54,377 / 54,583
  • Support: 53,498 / 53,295

U.S. equities fell on Thursday after reports that an Iran–Oman framework would ban U.S. ships until compensation. Dow ended five‑day rally.

Analyst View: Pulled back below 54,000 but still in high range. Non-farm payrolls will determine whether momentum weakens.

Bias: High‑levels consolidation

20260807 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 29,869 / 30,204
  • Support: 29,107 / 28,766

Nasdaq eased Thursday as Treasury yields pressured equities ahead of nonfarm payrolls.

Analyst View: Tried to recover but closed lower. Watch 20‑day MA support; Non-farm payrolls will decide if channel holds.

Bias: Trading with caution

20260807 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 65,120 / 65,677
  • Support: 63,317 / 62,751

Bitcoin edged slightly lower on Thursday amid an overall dent to risk sentiment from a surge in oil prices.

Analyst View: Stalled rally, hovering near 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Non-farm Payrolls will guide the next move: a break below MA support risks channel lows; a rebound could retest $65k.

Bias: Range consolidation

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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