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U.S. Jobs Unexpectedly Fall; Gold Surges as Rate Hike Bets Fade

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell, undermining Fed rate‑hike expectations. July payrolls decreased by 23,000, while May and June data were revised down by 103,000. U.S. equities rose Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high. Gold jumped over 2%, hitting a seven‑week high.
  • On Sunday, Iran said its agreement with Oman on new Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes was in the final stage, but reiterated the strait would only reopen once other conditions were met.
  • Today’s focus: After recent geopolitical developments and shifts in central bank expectations, markets now turn fully to key macro data. U.S. July CPI and retail sales will directly test the economy and shape Fed policy outlook. RBA decision, UK and Eurozone GDP, and other major releases will drive cross‑currency volatility. U.S. Q2 earnings season nears its end.

 

Global Market Review 10/08/2026

U.S. equities rose Friday as weak payrolls dampened rate‑hike bets. Weekly gains: S&P 500 +3.58%, Nasdaq +5.19%, Dow +2.96%.

Dollar index ‑0.35% to 99.61, down for second week.

Gold +2%, hitting seven‑week highs, weekly +7% (largest since Jan 19).

Traders assessed the latest Middle East news on the Strait reopening. WTI crude fell over 1% Friday.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 07:50 BoJ Summary of Opinions **
  • 16:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence AUG **

August 11

  • Japan Holiday
  • 12:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***
  • 13:30 RBA Press Conference ***
  • 22:00 US Existing Home Sales JUL **

 

Markets Analysis 10/08/2026

20260810 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1581 / 1.1595
  • Support: 1.1533 / 1.1518

EUR/USD rebounded on Friday, hitting highs since June 17, supported by weak U.S. payrolls and softer Fed expectations.

Analyst View: Attempting a breakout from last week’s range. Watch resistance 1.1580–1.1600.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260810 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3516 / 1.3558
  • Support: 1.3449 / 1.3416

GBP/USD rose on Friday, the biggest weekly gain in over a week, briefly breaking 1.3500.

Analyst View: Twice failed to hold above 1.3500. If unable to break, expect consolidation within prior range.

Bias: Range trading

20260810 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 159.40 / 160.05
  • Support: 156.57 / 155.89

In early Asia trade, USD/JPY rose above 158. BoJ summary showed divisions between holding rates and faster hikes. Weak U.S. payrolls may cap upside.

Analyst View: Recovered after breaking 158/157 Friday. Resistance at 158.50 remains. Likely to consolidate within last week’s range.

Bias: Range consolidation

20260810 US Crude Oil Futures (SEP) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 82.13 / 83.61
  • Support: 75.80 / 74.34

Oil remained pressured on Friday amid hopes of the Strait reopening, but rebounded Monday.

Analyst View: Facing 10‑day MA resistance. Without headlines, likely stuck below $80.

Bias: Weak trading

20260810 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4355 / 4384
  • Support: 4262 / 4232

20260810 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 65.28 / 66.56
  • Support: 61.02 / 60.02

Gold surged over $100 on Friday, best weekly performance since January, on a weaker dollar, falling oil, and softer Fed expectations.

Analyst View: Slight pullback Monday, but above $4,300 could attract more buying. Watch resistance above $4,380.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260810 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 54,377 / 54,583
  • Support: 53,708 / 53,498

Dow rose on Friday, with modest gains, closing above 54,000 after weak payrolls.

Analyst View: Markets are still digesting the NFP report, if Dow sustains above 54,000, it may test record highs.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260810 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 30,203 / 30,548
  • Support: 29,110 / 28,770

Nasdaq +1.3% on Friday, lifted by weak payrolls and SpaceX rally post lock‑up expiry.

Analyst View: NFP will keep driving volatility, focus on resistance near 29,900–30,000.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260810 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 65,677 / 66,224
  • Support: 64,006 / 63,317

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fall, weakening Federal Reserve rate‑hike forecasts. Bitcoin rose slightly yesterday, hitting late‑July highs, but closed flat for two days.

Analyst View: Momentum slowing, consolidating above MAs. A break above $66k is needed to break the range.

Bias: Mildly bullish

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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