美元兑加元汇率聚焦通胀和加拿大央行

美元/加元将再次聚焦美国通胀数据和加拿大央行利率决议。

USDCAD-–-Daily-Chart-1

美元兑加元-日图

美元兑加元汇率在1.35找到了支撑,目前正在寻求突破。阻力位在1.38-1.39附近,上行趋势支撑线使较高的水平发挥作用。

预计加拿大央行本周三将维持基准利率不变。在进行四年来的首次降息之前,它预计会出现进一步的通胀。市场押注最早可能在6月份降息。

加拿大的通货膨胀率从2022年6月8.1%的峰值回落。周五的劳动力调查也显示就业市场进一步疲软。然而,央行再次降息可能会推动房价再次上涨。

路透社的一项调查发现,超过70%的经济学家预计加拿大央行将在6月份首次降息,这与市场预期相符。其中七人预计第一次降息将在7月份;剩下的四个都是九月。

加拿大经济谘商会首席经济学家Pedro Antunes表示:“经济真的相当脆弱。”加拿大央行将在周三宣布其货币政策决定,美国也将公布通胀数据。

在这两项声明之后,美元兑加元将获得本周的指引。

经济学家预计,美国最近一个月的通胀率将从3.2%上升至3.4%,这给美联储预期的降息路径增添了疑虑。

随着投资者撤回对市场的预测,美元对其他主要货币的汇率正在降温。

MUFG汇市分析师在最新研究报告中称,”最新的事态发展加大了美联储在降息方面可能落后于其他主要央行的风险。”

他们补充称:“通胀再次出现意外上行,可能引发鹰派人士对美联储降息预期进行更大程度的重新评估,并为美元突破高位打开大门。”

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