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Trump Says Oil Will “Come Plummeting Down” Once The Hormuz Deadlock Ends

Oil Movement Overview

Brent crude rose 1.2% to 98.79 in Monday trade on 28 September 2026, recovering Friday’s losses after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That came a day after Trump told reporters on Sunday, 27 September 2026, that oil would “come plummeting down” as soon as the war with Iran ends, which he said would be soon.

Key Driver Behind The Move

The immediate driver is the stalemate over Hormuz. Trump called Iran’s seven-day proposal “unacceptable” on Saturday, while Iran said it would not soften its conditions and was still awaiting a definitive US response through mediators Qatar and Pakistan. Trump said negotiations are expected to resume this week, but he has not ruled out further strikes before the November midterm elections. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy also said it seized a US underwater military vehicle in the strait.

Market Data And Reaction

Prices had eased on Friday on reports that Washington and Tehran were weighing a phased deal to reopen the strait. WTI settled at 92.45 that day and was down about 7.4% on the week. Brent remains up 16.88% over the past month, showing how much a Hormuz reopening is already partly priced in.

Broader Market Implications

Trump’s comments lean on his claim that record volumes of oil moved through Hormuz overnight, above pre-war levels. That claim is unverified, and the market response suggests traders want confirmed flows and a signed deal before pricing in a sustained drop. The US Energy Information Administration expects inventories to keep falling through the end of 2026, which limits how quickly prices could ease even if shipping resumes.

What Oil Traders Should Watch

  • US response to Iran’s proposal: Any reply through Qatar and Pakistan, and whether negotiations resume this week.
  • Tanker traffic through Hormuz: Independent data on whether flows match Trump’s claim of record volumes.
  • Military escalation: Any strikes or seizures in or near the strait before the November midterms.
  • Weekly US crude inventory data: The next report will show whether stocks continue to draw.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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