Dollar Firms Above 99 as Labour Data, Iran Talks Keep Traders Cautious

The US dollar index held above 99 on Thursday, supported by resilient US labour data and uncertainty around talks between Washington and Tehran, according to market reports. The move came as investors weighed whether stronger economic readings could keep the Federal Reserve cautious on interest-rate cuts while geopolitical risks continued to support the greenback as a safe haven.

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The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, has been trading near five-week highs after a run of gains driven by firm US data and elevated Treasury yields. Traders have been watching whether the index can sustain a move above the 99 level, a threshold that has attracted attention in recent sessions.

Recent US jobs figures showed the labour market remained solid in April, with payrolls rising more than expected and the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may keep rates unchanged for longer. That has helped underpin the dollar even as markets debate the pace of policy easing later in the year.

At the same time, headlines on US-Iran diplomacy have added a second layer of support. An Iranian official said no deal had been reached, though gaps had narrowed, while reports earlier this month suggested both sides were exploring a framework that could ease sanctions in exchange for constraints on Iran’s nuclear programme.

The broader backdrop remains sensitive to developments in the Middle East, where shifts in ceasefire prospects, sanctions policy and energy supply routes can quickly feed into currency and commodity markets. A sustained dollar advance would likely keep pressure on other major currencies and could complicate the outlook for commodities priced in dollars, including oil and gold.

Traders will now watch for further US economic releases and any fresh signals from Washington or Tehran for clues on whether the dollar can extend its recent climb or whether profit-taking will set in near 99.

About the author

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

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