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Brent Slips to $103.49 as Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Claim Meets Hormuz Tensions

Brent Movement Overview

Brent crude slipped early on Monday after President Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend. December Brent futures fell 1.2% to $103.49 a barrel as of 07:55 UTC+8 on 12 October 2026. Kyiv and Moscow have not confirmed the agreement. Middle East tensions limited the decline.

Key Driver Behind The Move

The prospect of fewer disruptions to Russian fuel supplies weighed on prices. Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian refining and shipping infrastructure in recent weeks, which has caused major disruption to global diesel supplies. Trump also pressed Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian refineries. Separately, he announced a diesel supply deal with Russia on Friday, aimed at easing pump prices. Trump had also announced an energy ceasefire in mid-September that neither side confirmed.

Market Data And Reaction

Profit-taking after last week’s gains added to the pressure on crude. Gains in the prior week had come as Middle East tensions stayed high. The pullback was modest because supply risks in the region remain unresolved.

Broader Market Implications

Supply concerns in the Middle East continue to offset the ceasefire news. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz persisted, and Iran described a recent US proposal to reopen the waterway as insufficient. Clashes between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis also continued, with further Houthi attacks on Riyadh over the weekend, including on a major airport. With the Russia-Ukraine agreement unconfirmed, the ceasefire’s effect on supply remains uncertain, while Hormuz disruptions continue to support prices.

What Oil Traders Should Watch

  • Confirmation or denial of the energy ceasefire from Kyiv and Moscow
  • Any change in the US-Iran position on reopening the Strait of Hormuz
  • Further attacks on tankers in Hormuz or on Saudi infrastructure
  • Whether the reported US-Russia diesel supply deal eases fuel prices

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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