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U.S.–Iran Escalates Strikes; Markets Open the Week Cautiously

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S.–Iran conflict intensified as U.S. forces carried out their eighth consecutive night of strikes since ceasefire talks collapsed. According to LSEG shipping data, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined further over the weekend. Oil prices opened higher this morning, with overall market sentiment leaning risk‑averse.

Today’s focus: Germany June PPI expected to slow to 1.8% YoY (prior 2.2%), and U.S. June Conference Board Leading Index forecast to maintain modest growth. Tonight, Canada’s June CPI is expected to accelerate slightly to around 2.0% YoY, with core inflation steady near 2.2%. The data will shape expectations for Bank of Canada policy.

 

Global Market Review 20/07/2026

  • U.S. equities extended losses Friday: Dow ‑0.93% weekly, S&P 500 ‑1.55%, Nasdaq ‑2.9%.
  • The dollar ended flat on Friday, down 0.2% on the week.
  • Spot gold rebounded by over 1% on Friday but fell ~2.5% for the week, its largest drop in over a month.
  • WTI crude rose more than 2% Friday, hitting highs since mid‑June as U.S.–Iran strikes escalated in the Gulf.

 

Key Events Today:

Japan Holiday

  • 14:00 EU GERMANY PPI YoY JUN **
  • 20:30 CA CPI YoY JUN **
  • 22:00 US CB Leading Index MoM JUN **

July 21（GMT+8）

  • 14:00 GB Unemployment Rate MAY **
  • 17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUL **

 

Markets Analysis 20/07/2026

20260720 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1459 / 1.1473
  • Support: 1.1414 / 1.1400

EUR/USD steadied Friday but opened lower Monday as U.S.–Iran tensions escalated.

Analyst View: Testing 10‑day MA support. A break lower would target the 20‑day MA and potentially below 1.1400.

Bias: Short‑term weak

20260720 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3498 / 1.3537
  • Support: 1.3377 / 1.3339

Sterling fell for a second day on Friday. Burnham formally replaces Starmer as UK Prime Minister today, which may lend some support.

Analyst View: Watch 10‑day MA support at 1.3422. A break lower would extend the correction; holding support could refocus on 1.3500.

Bias: Short‑term weak

20260720 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 162.71 / 162.87
  • Support: 162.33 / 162.17

USD/JPY hovered near 162 on Friday, close to multi‑decade highs, with intervention risks keeping trade cautious.

Analyst View: Early Monday highs faded, but support held at the 10‑day MA. Maintaining above this level is key to staying in the high range.

Bias: High‑level consolidation

20260720 US Crude Oil Futures (SEP) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 85.00 / 86.30
  • Support: 82.42 / 80.76

Oil extended gains Monday, hitting its highest level since June 12 as tensions in the Middle East threatened supply.

Analyst View: Upside opened further after a gap higher. Watch resistance above $85; fresh headlines needed to break higher.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260720 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4043 / 4073
  • Support: 3982 / 3943

20260720 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 57.61 / 58.51
  • Support: 54.70 / 53.78

Gold reclaimed above $4,000 on Friday but posted its largest weekly drop in over a month. Silver fell to its lowest level since November 2025.

Analyst View: Gold opened lower on Monday, staying near last week’s lows. Daily MAs remain key resistance, keeping trade weak.

Bias: Weak trading

20260720 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 52,539 / 52,831
  • Support: 51,833 / 51,601

U.S. equities fell Friday as Middle East tensions fueled inflation risks. Dow dropped for a second day, hitting early‑month lows.

Analyst View: Breaking below key MAs, with the 20‑day MA near 52,200 now acting as resistance. Watch for further downside below 52,000.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260720 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 28,993 / 29,132
  • Support: 28,402 / 28,225

Tech stocks fell on Friday. Apple is negotiating with the DOJ over antitrust issues, while SpaceX dropped more than 5% after a launch halt. Nasdaq fell over 1%.

Analyst View: Dropped to lows since June 9, holding above prior support. Watch for retests of the previous low.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260720 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 65,576 / 66,485
  • Support: 63,508 / 62,584

Bitcoin recovered toward $65k on Saturday after sliding with tech stocks. Risk appetite was pressured by new developments in Chinese AI and fading hopes for U.S. crypto legislation.

Analyst View: Still consolidating near $65k. Holding the 10‑day MA is key to breaking out of the narrow range.

Bias: Range consolidation

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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