Market Highlight 16/12/2025
Federal Reserve official John Williams said the policy has moved from “mildly restrictive” toward “neutral,” and expects inflation to ease next year. U.S. equities closed lower on Monday as investors positioned ahead of a heavy data week and assessed reports on potential Fed Chair candidates, along with policymakers’ comments for clues on the rate outlook. The Dow slipped 0.09%, the S&P 500 fell 0.16%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.59%. U.S. Treasury yields declined, while the U.S. dollar index edged down 0.09% to 98.318.
Spot gold gave back its intraday gains and finished flat, after U.S. officials and Ukraine’s President Zelensky made progress in key talks aimed at ending the war, and as markets awaited crucial U.S. employment data. Spot gold ended nearly unchanged at $4,301.58 per ounce after rising more than 1% earlier in the session. Oil prices retreated as investors weighed the impact of escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions, persistent oversupply concerns, and the potential for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
Key Outlook 16/12/2025
Markets are gearing up for the final U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report of the year, with November jobs growth expected to slow sharply again to 40,000 (from 119,000 in September). The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at a four-year high of 4.4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.6% year-on-year. The upcoming NFP print could once again reshape expectations for the Fed’s January rate decision and will be pivotal in determining the market’s direction heading into year-end.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 15:00 GB Unemployment Rate OCT **
- 16:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash DEC **
- 17:00 EU Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash DEC **
- 17:30 GB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash DEC **
- 18:00 EU Economic Sentiment DEC **
- 18:00 EU Balance of Trade OCT**
- 21:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls NOV ***
- 22:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash DEC **
Tomorrow:
- 05:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
- 15:00 GB CPI & PPI NOV **
- 17:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate DEC **
- 18:00 EU CPI YoY Final NOV **
- 23:00 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **
Markets Analysis 16/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1777/1.1796
- Support: 1.1720/1.1695
EUR/USD held firm near 1.1748 as a softer Dollar and pre-NFP caution supported the Euro. With traders awaiting key U.S. data to clarify the Fed’s easing path, the pair remains buoyed within its ascending channel. A stable pullback toward the mid-channel may allow the pair to attempt another move toward 1.1777 resistance.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3412/1.3455
- Support: 1.3316/1.3275
GBP/USD eased to around 1.3365 as rising BoE cut expectations weighed on Sterling, though Dollar softness limited further downside. With traders awaiting key U.S. labour and inflation data, the broader direction remains data-dependent. Technically, the pair is holding above 1.3316 support, and a stable pullback could see another attempt toward 1.3412 resistance.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 155.65/155.95
- Support: 154.34/154.04
USD/JPY slipped toward 155.35 amid rising expectations of a BoJ rate hike, boosting the Yen. With U.S. NFP and inflation data ahead, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Technically, the pair continues to struggle below the 155.65 area, and failure to reclaim this level may open the door for a pullback toward the 154.34 support zone.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 57.09/57.59
- Support: 56.28/55.77
WTI extended losses toward $56.6 as expectations of a significant 2026 supply surplus and progress in Ukraine peace talks weighed on sentiment. Venezuela-related supply disruptions offered only limited relief. Technically, price remains heavy after breaking prior support, and a failure to hold above the $56.28 area could leave WTI vulnerable to further downside.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4341/4369
- Support: 4274/4245
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 64.21/65.26
- Support: 59.82/58.78
Gold hovered around $4,307 as easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking capped upside, though Fed rate-cut expectations continue to underpin dips. Technically, price is consolidating after a sharp rally and holding above the $4,274–4,245 zone keeps the structure constructive, leaving room for a renewed push toward $4,341 resistance.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 49068/49473
- Support: 48032/47719
The Dow Futures edged lower as investors turned cautious ahead of key data releases, with healthcare outperforming while Fed leadership and policy uncertainty capped risk appetite. Technically, the break above the prior downtrend has shifted momentum higher and holding the 48,032–47,719 zone suggests consolidation rather than reversal, keeping the door open for a push toward 49,068.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25364/25600
- Support: 24842/24609
The NAS100 slipped 0.59% as tech stocks weakened, with ServiceNow’s sharp drop reviving concerns over AI valuations and earnings visibility ahead of key US data. Technically, the index is digesting gains near prior highs; holding the 24,842 area would favor consolidation and renewed upside rather than a trend reversal.
BTC
- Resistance: 89229/90507
- Support: 83814/82558
Bitcoin stayed soft below $89K as global risk appetite weakened ahead of key U.S. data (NFP, CPI, PMIs) and several major central bank decisions (BoJ, BoE, ECB). Technically, BTC has broken its trendline support , and momentum has faded, with a potential retest of the $83,814–$82,558 zone before buyers may return. A rebound toward near $89,229 resistance depends on whether the lower support holds.
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