Market Highlight 13/02/2026
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fell, further reducing the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The three major U.S. stock indices fell sharply on Thursday as investors intensified selling in technology stocks and moved out of transportation shares amid concerns that artificial intelligence could trigger disruptive industry changes. The Dow Jones fell 1.34%, the S&P 500 declined 1.57%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.03%. The U.S. dollar was broadly steady against major currencies, stabilising as the latest batch of U.S. economic data delivered mixed signals.
U.S. employment data weakened market expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts, sending gold prices to a near one-week low. Spot gold closed down 3.13% at $4,919.69 per ounce. International oil prices also retreated as fears of renewed Middle East conflict faded and supply expectations increased. The IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, citing high oil prices that weigh on consumption.
Key Outlook 13/02/2026
The U.S. January CPI report will be released tonight. Markets expect the annual CPI rate to come in at 2.5% (down from 2.7%), while the monthly reading is forecast to remain at 0.3%. Core CPI is also expected at 2.5% YoY (previously 2.7%), the lowest level since 2021. After Wednesday’s nonfarm payrolls failed to generate sufficient volatility, this pre-weekend CPI report could reintroduce market fluctuations — particularly in shaping expectations for Fed rate cuts — with gold and U.S. equities likely to be the key assets to watch.
Key Data and Events Today: 18:00 EU GDP Q4 YoY Prel ***
- 21:30 US CPI YoY JAN ***
Key Data and Events Coming Week:
- Monday: China, United States Holiday; JP GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q4; JP Industrial Production DEC; EU Industrial Production DEC; CA CPI JAN
- Tuesday: China, Hong Kong Holiday; RBA Meeting Minutes; EU Germany CPI Final JAN; GB Unemployment Rate DEC; EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index FEB; US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index FEB; US NAHB Housing Market Index FEB
- Wednesday: China, Hong Kong Holiday, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision; GB CPI & PPI JAN; US Housing Starts NOV; US Building Permits NOV Prel; US Industrial Production JAN
- Thursday: China, Hong Kong Holiday, China Holiday; FOMC Minutes; US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock; AU Unemployment Rate JAN; CA Balance of Trade DEC; US Balance of Trade DEC; US Initial Jobless Claims; US Pending Home Sales JAN; EU Consumer Confidence Flash FEB
- Friday: China Holiday, EIA Crude Oil Stock Change; JP Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash FEB; EU Germany PPI JAN; GB Retail Sales JAN; EU Germany Manufacturing & Services PMI Prel FEB; EU Manufacturing & Services PMI Prel FEB; GB Manufacturing & Services PMI Prel FEB; CA Retail Sales DEC; US GDP & Core PCE Prices Q4 Prel; US Manufacturing & Services PMI Prel FEB; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final FEB
Markets Analysis 13/02/2026
- Resistance: 1.1924/1.1962
- Support: 1.1803/1.1766
EURUSD held near 1.187 as softer yields offset strong jobs data. Price trades below resistance at 1.1924–1.1962, with support at 1.1803–1.1766. With the Fed expected to remain on hold until mid-year, the pair may remain range-bound ahead of the CPI report.
- Resistance: 1.3669/1.3746
- Support: 1.3544/1.3482
GBPUSD moved sideways near 1.3600 as the dollar’s direction dominated amid limited UK drivers. Price remains capped below resistance at 1.3669–1.3746, while support lies at 1.3544–1.3482. Uncertainty around rate cuts and cautious risk sentiment may keep the pair consolidating.
- Resistance: 154.23/154.89
- Support: 152.09/151.44
USDJPY drifts near 153 as yen demand persists. Rallies fade around 154.23–154.44, while dips toward 152.09–151.44 attract buyers. Political optimism and steady inflation keep the pair biased to the downside despite a steady dollar.
- Resistance: 64.01/64.70
- Support: 61.80/61.10
WTI fell towards $62.9 as easing Middle East risk and a rising supply outlook weighed on sentiment. Price is now testing the $61.80–61.10 support band after breaking the short-term channel. If buyers defend this area, a corrective bounce towards $64.01–64.70 may unfold; otherwise, a deeper pullback could extend, as momentum remains fragile.
- Resistance: 5098/5149
- Support: 4826/4761
- Resistance: 81.43/84.75
- Support: 70.67/67.29
Gold slid below $5,000 to $4,915 after strong U.S. jobs data dampened rate-cut bets and triggered stops. Price is now probing the $4,826–4,761 support zone; holding here may allow a rebound towards $5,098–5,149, while a sustained break could open the door to a deeper corrective phase as sentiment turns cautious ahead of CPI.
- Resistance: 50020/50270
- Support: 48978/48736
Dow Futures fell 1.34%, retreating from the 50,020–50,270 resistance zone as stronger jobs data trimmed rate-cut hopes. Price is now hovering near 49,470; holding above the 48,978–48,736 support zone keeps the broader uptrend intact, while a break could trigger a deeper pullback, as cyclicals remain under pressure.
- Resistance: 25044/25224
- Support: 24464/24280
NAS100 slid about 2%, rejected near 25,044–25,224 resistance as AI-spending worries and higher-for-longer rates weighed on tech. Price is now approaching 24,464; holding above 24,464–24,280 may trigger a rebound, while a breakdown risks extending the corrective move towards deeper supports.
- Resistance: 69618/71903
- Support: 62181/59935
Bitcoin slid towards $65.6K after strong U.S. jobs data cut rate-cut bets. Price remains capped below $69,618–$71,903 resistance; weak momentum keeps the market cautious. Holding $62,181–$59,935 support may stabilise, but a break risks another leg lower.
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