美元兑日元等待经济增长和零售销售数据

在大幅抛售之后,周四的经济数据将考验美元兑日元汇率的反弹。

USDJPY-–-Daily-Chart-1

美元兑日元-日图

美元兑日元已从大幅回调中反弹至148附近。最近日元汇率的疲软震动了东京股市,交易员们将密切关注最新的数据。

周四香港时间上午7:50将公布日本经济年化GDP增长数据,分析师预计将从上月的-2.0%大幅逆转至2.1%。

如果日本经济如预期那样走强,最新的初步数据可能有助于支持日本央行最近的加息。

在干预汇市以减缓日元走软之后,日本央行出人意料地加息,关闭了卖空者的大门。这震动了日本股市,并导致日本央行退出了此时进一步调整货币政策的计划。

美国将在晚间晚些时候公布零售销售数据。该指数预计为0.3%,高于上月持平的0%。

疲弱的物价数据增加了美联储9月降息的可能性后,美元周三走低。

美国7月CPI同比从3.0%放缓至2.9%,略好于3.0%不变的预期,也是三年来最小的同比增幅。7月份扣除食品和能源的CPI从6月份的3.3%下降到3.2%,这符合预期,也是三年来最小的年增长率。

市场资深人士Ed Yardeni表示,美联储今年只会降息一次,因为经济过于强劲。这与许多其他分析师的看法相反,他们预计9月份将降息,12月份还将降息。

经济学家担心美国陷入衰退,一些人希望降低利率以减轻压力。

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