特朗普获胜后,美元兑人民币大幅升值

在唐纳德·特朗普再次当选美国总统后,美元兑人民币汇率大幅上涨。

USDCNY - Daily Chart

美元兑人民币—日图

美元兑人民币已经跃升至7.177的阻力位,现在可能会瞄准8月份7.275左右的高点。

特朗普以276票对223票的压倒性胜利重新当选总统后,金价下跌,美元飙升。随着竞争的不确定性被消除,金价下跌超过1.5%。

美元兑人民币汇率也飙升了1%以上,因为交易员们准备好了对中国重新征收关税。

IG Asia策略师表示:“尽管美元走强和特朗普获胜后的高收益率可能对黄金构成不利因素,但一旦出现贸易紧张局势,这将与潜在的避险需求相平衡。”

然而,有人担心特朗普的政策可能会增加联邦赤字,从而增加通货膨胀的风险。

麦格理集团的Marcus Garvey表示,如果共和党大胜,不仅拿下参议院,还拿下众议院,“特朗普增加美国政府债务、推高赤字的能力要大得多。”

特朗普将关税和减税作为其选举策略的关键部分,大多数选民表示经济是选举中最大的问题。他的平台的另一个重要部分是在从银行到加密货币等领域放松管制。

DWS Group首席投资官David Bianco表示:“市场基本上认为这有利于经济增长,即使随之而来的是更高的通胀和利率。”

特朗普曾表示,他将对进口商品征收10%的关税,对来自中国的商品征收60%的关税,这将是未来几个月投资者关注的一个关键主题。德意志银行的一项研究表示,如果不实施关税,特朗普的胜利将使GDP增加约0.5个百分点。该研究补充称,关税可能会使GDP下降约0.25个百分点。

法国外贸银行投资组合策略师Garrett Melson表示:“特朗普在关税方面的力度有多大,仍将存在一些问号。”

美元在全球范围内对其他主要货币升值,人民币贬值可能对中国未来的货币政策产生影响。

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