基于美国经济衰退的担忧,股市暴跌债券上涨

周一,全球股市暴跌,债券价格飙升。对美国可能陷入衰退的担忧日益加剧,促使投资者逃离风险资产,押注于美联储迅速降息以支持经济增长。

重点:

  • 美股期货大跌:纳斯达克期货跌2.27%,标普500期货跌1.41%
  • 亚洲股市遭受重创:日经指数下跌5.5%,创七个月新低
  • 美国国债收益率暴跌:10年期国债收益率跌至3.723%,为2023年年中以来的最低水平

市场预期美联储将大幅降息:9月份降息50个基点的可能性为70%

抛售在亚洲尤为严重,日本日经指数经历了自2011年金融危机以来的最大三个交易日跌幅。摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)除日本外最广泛的亚太股指下跌2.0%,欧洲股指期货也开盘走低。

债券市场大幅反弹,10年期美国国债收益率跌至3.723%,为2023年年中以来的最低水平。此举反映出人们对美联储大幅降息的预期日益增强。

高盛分析师指出:“将未来12个月经济衰退的可能性提高了10个百分点,至25%。”他们将9月、11月和12月降息25个基点纳入了预测。

摩根大通的立场更为悲观,认为美国经衰退的可能性为50%,并预计美联储将在9月和11月的会议上降息50个基点。

货币市场对利率格局的变化做出了反应,美元兑主要货币走弱。欧元兑美元持稳于1.0920美元,日元兑美元升至144.99美元。

大宗商品油价从8个月低点小幅反弹,布伦特原油上涨27美分,至每桶77.08美元。然而,对需求的担忧继续令市场承压。

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