美元兑其他货币反弹,日元稳定在七个月高位

周二,美元兑大多数主要货币的汇率有所回升,日元兑美元的汇率稳定在7个月高点附近。近日来一些较为引人注目的走势有所逆转,市场恢复了表面上的平静。

JPY

美元兑日元在连续五个交易日下跌后,最后报145.01,当日上涨0.54%。在过去五个交易日里,美元兑日元下跌了近6%。

股市也在进行重新评估,日本基准的日经指数周二上涨10%,此前一天下跌了12%。与此同时,欧洲股市也试图回升。

Merk Investments总裁兼首席投资官Axel Merk表示:“如果市场的波动尚未结束,我不会感到惊讶,但很明显,昨天的大幅波动在某种程度上已经正常化。”

日元最近的上涨是由波动性上升推动的,这导致投资者纷纷退出一度流行的套利交易。日本央行上周五的加息强化了这一点。

所谓的套息交易,即投资者从日本或瑞士等利率较低的经济体借款,为投资其他地方的高收益资产提供资金,这种交易依赖于较低的波动性。

“过去几天的一些走势似乎有些过头了,”Corpay首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta表示。

“我们看到避险需求正在消退,多数主要货币对的资金流动在某种程度上回归正常,”他表示。

美元指数此前上涨0.087%,至102.96。

瑞士法郎兑美元的汇率在当天几乎没有变化,自7月29日以来上涨了约4%。

像日元一样,瑞士法郎——另一种受欢迎的套息交易融资货币——自7月中旬以来大幅走强,因为这些交易被解除,周一避险资金流动进一步强化了瑞士法郎的涨势。

套息交易的解除,加上周五低于预期的美国就业数据和主要科技公司的令人失望的业绩,引发了全球股市的抛售,进一步加强了这一解除。

周二,美元也在欧元和英镑上恢复了部分失地。欧元下跌0.21%,至1.0928美元,在周一的动荡中曾达到七个月高点的1.1009美元。

英镑下跌0.64%,至1.2697美元,为五周来的最低水平,因为上周英国央行的降息削弱了其年初强势的支柱之一。

推动汇市波动的还有交易员试图为即将召开的美联储政策会议定价。

交易员们现在预计美联储今年将降息110个基点(bps),预计9月份降息50个基点的可能性接近70%,低于周一的85%。

周一,美国央行政策制定者反对认为7月就业数据弱于预期意味着经济正陷入衰退的自由落体。他们还警告称,美联储必须降息以避免这种结果。

澳大利亚央行行长米歇尔·布洛克的评论称,降息仍遥不可及后,澳元持稳0.55%,报0.6533美元。

正如预期的那样,澳大利亚央行周二维持利率不变,同时重申不排除采取任何措施来控制通胀。

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