澳元兑纽元汇率聚焦周三公布数据

周三新西兰和澳大利亚的经济数据将影响公布澳元兑纽元汇率。

AUDNZD – Daily Chart

澳元兑纽元-日线图

澳元兑纽元周二走高,阻力位在1.1100之前。更大的阻力位在1.1150。

澳大利亚储备银行行长布洛克告诉阿尔巴尼亚政府,进一步的选举支出将迫使利率在更长时间内保持高位。如果政策制定者在他们的支出决策中忽视了“非常意识到”通胀的信息,那么5月份在选举前降息将是不确定的。

经济学家一致预计,澳储行将把现金利率维持在2011年11月以来的最高水平。9月当季整体通胀率降至2.8%,为三年半以来的最低水平,澳大利亚央行称这一水平仍然过高。

周二是澳储行将基准利率上调0.25%的第12个月。央行在一份声明中表示,尽管价格自2022年达到峰值以来已经“大幅下跌”,但9月份季度3.5%的潜在通胀率需要降低。

澳储行还修改了周二发布的经济预测,该行预计通胀在2026年之前不会达到2% -3%目标的中间点。

报告称:“尽管总体通胀已大幅下降,并将在一段时间内保持较低水平,但潜在通胀更多地反映了通胀势头,目前仍过高。”

新西兰经济也存在潜在的疲软,央行警告说,情况可能会变得更糟。新西兰央行表示:“失业率上升开始给一些家庭带来严重的财务困难。”

新西兰储备银行预计第三季度经济将出现收缩,因为它提高了现金利率以降低通货膨胀。自8月份以来,由于通货膨胀率下降,央行已将官方现金利率下调了75个基点,但这并没有刺激经济。

新西兰央行行长奥尔在新闻发布会上表示,实体经济滞后于降息,能否度过这一滞后期令人担忧。

“你不希望在这段时间里出现意外或下行冲击,”奥尔说。

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