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Warsh’s Hawkish Stance Boosts Rate Bets Ahead of Jobs Report This Week

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

  • Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish signal on fighting inflation, prompting markets to increase bets on a September rate hike, with probability estimated around 60%. Following his remarks, U.S. equities and gold closed lower, while the dollar rose alongside Treasury yields.
  • Today’s focus: Germany’s August inflation data (forecast 2.9% YoY, previous 2.8%) will directly inform Tuesday’s Eurozone CPI. The U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will reflect whether regional manufacturing activity remains weak.

 

Global Market Review 31/08/2026

  • Under Warsh’s hawkish tone, U.S. equities closed lower on Friday, though weekly gains held: S&P 500 +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.85%, Dow +0.53%.
  • The dollar rose 0.55%, its largest single‑day gain in two and a half months.
  • Gold fell over 3%, its lowest in more than a week.
  • Oil prices declined as markets assessed the Fed’s inflation signals and rumors of a shipping agreement in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Key Events Today:

  • UK Holiday
  • 09:30 CN NBS Manufacturing & Non Manufacturing PMI AUG **
  • 20:00 EU GERMANY CPI Prel AUG **
  • 22:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG **

Sep 1 (GMT+8)

  • 07:00 AU Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 08:30 JP Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 09:45 CN Manufacturing PMI AUG **
  • 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 17:00 EU CPI Flash AUG ***
  • 17:00 EU Unemployment Rate JUL **
  • 21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI AUG ***
  • 22:00 US JOLTS Job Openings JUL ***
  • 22:00 US Construction Spending MoM JUL **

 

Markets Analysis 31/08/2026

20260831 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1627 / 1.1670
  • Support: 1.1533 / 1.1490

Warsh’s remarks lifted the dollar, pushing EUR/USD to its lowest since August 19, holding near one‑week lows. Market focus shifts to Germany’s CPI.

Analyst View: Broke below the 10‑day MA on Friday, now hovering just under the 20‑day MA. This level is key to defending 1.1600. Failure to reclaim could see bears drive below 1.1550.

Bias: Under Pressure

20260831 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3575 / 1.3598
  • Support: 1.3504 / 1.3475

Warsh’s hawkish stance weighed on GBP/USD, with the pair recording its largest drop in over a month. UK holiday leaves sterling partly influenced by German data.

Analyst View: After three days of declines, now testing the 20‑day MA. A confirmed break would pressure toward 1.3500.

Bias: Under Pressure

20260831 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 160.19 / 160.46
  • Support: 159.78 / 159.52

Treasury Secretary Bessent said the yen has not been intervened in recently. USD/JPY broke consolidation Friday, posting its largest gain in over a week.

Analyst View: Price broke above the range top and is testing 160. A sustained hold above strengthens bullish momentum; a rejection could trigger a pullback below 159.80.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260831 US Crude Oil Futures (OCT) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 86.50 / 87.69
  • Support: 83.67 / 82.72

Oil fell on Friday as traders assessed Fed policy and rumours about the Strait of Hormuz. Prices rebounded early Monday after a U.S. strike on an Iranian island prompted Tehran retaliation.

Analyst View: Gapped higher, back above 10‑day MA. Holding above target $87, last week’s high.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260831 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4511 / 4555
  • Support: 4380 / 4324

20260831 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 67.87 / 69.13
  • Support: 64.82 / 63.82

Warsh’s hawkish remarks made inflation the Fed’s top priority, lifting September hike bets and driving gold sharply lower Friday.

Analyst View: Largest daily drop since June, broke below 10‑day MA, now testing 20‑day MA. Short‑term pressure, but support at the 20‑day MA could enable a rebound.

Bias: Slightly Under Pressure

20260831 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 53,998 / 54,382
  • Support: 53,151 / 52,773

U.S. indices fell Friday as Warsh reaffirmed the inflation fight, raising expectations for further rate hikes. Dow’s decline was modest.

Analyst View: Range not expanded but remains pressured. Testing 10‑day MA, likely consolidating between 10‑ and 20‑day MAs.

Bias: Range consolidation

20260831 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 29,547 / 29,653
  • Support: 29,002 / 28,870

Tech stocks mostly rose on Friday, but Nvidia fell 4.57%, weighing on Nasdaq. The index retreated after hitting an intraday one‑week high.

Analyst View: Holding near 29,400 where 10‑ and 20‑day MAs converge. Watching breakout levels; short‑term bias is consolidation.

Bias: Range consolidation

20260831 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 79,215 / 80,071
  • Support: 75,590 / 74,910

Bitcoin fell below $77,000 after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech warning that inflation remains too high.

Analyst View: After recovering from highs, BTC/USD attempted a recovery over the weekend, back above $77,000. Still capped by 10‑day MA resistance, short‑term bias is range consolidation.

Bias: Under Pressure

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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