本周美国关键就业报告前，沃什鹰派信号推升加息预期 | ATFX

要点

* 美联储主席沃什就抗通胀发出鹰派信号，市场加大押注9月加息，预计美联储9月加息的概率约为60%。沃什讲话后，美股和黄金跟随收低，美元随美债收益率上涨。

* 今日关注：德国8月通胀数据（预计年率为2.9%，前值2.8%）的表现将直接为周二的欧元区整体CPI提供参考。美国达拉斯联储制造业指数主要反映美国地方制造业活动是否延续疲软态势。

全球市场回顾：

在沃什偏鹰派讲话影响下，美国股市上周五收低，但标普500指数周线上涨0.49%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.85%，道琼斯指数上涨0.53%。美元上涨0.55%，创两个半月来最大单日涨幅。上周五金价下跌逾3%，为逾一周以来的最低。油价收低，市场评估有关美联储抗通胀政策的信号，以及霍尔木兹海峡航运可能达成协议的传闻。

重要财经日历

英国假期
09:30 中国国家统计局8月制造业及非制造业PMI **
20:00 德国8月CPI初值 **
22:30 美国8月达拉斯联储制造业指数 **

9月1日（GMT+8）

07:00 澳大利亚8月制造业PMI终值 **
08:30 日本8月制造业PMI终值 **
09:45 中国8月制造业PMI **
15:55 德国8月制造业PMI终值 **
16:00 欧元区8月制造业PMI终值 **
16:30 英国8月制造业PMI终值 **
17:00 欧元区8月CPI初值 ***
17:00 欧元区7月失业率 **
21:45 美国8月制造业PMI终值 **
22:00 美国8月ISM制造业PMI ***
22:00 美国7月JOLTS职位空缺 ***
22:00 美国7月营建支出 **

【20260831 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1627/1.1670阻力
1.1533/1.1490支持

上周五，美联储主席讲话提振美元，欧元兑美元在创8月19日以来最低后维持在逾一周低位，市场继续关注日内德国最新CPI报告。

分析师观点：汇价上周五下破10日均线后，目前徘徊在20日均线微下方，该位置是决定是否捍卫1.1600关口的关键。如果不能收复该位，则空头可能继续在1.1550关口下方推进。

方向：承压

英镑兑美元

1.3575/1.3598阻力
1.3504/1.3475支持

沃什重提美联储加息预期，英镑兑美元受到影响而回落，录得逾一个月来最大跌幅。在英国假期期间，英镑将部分受到德国数据的间接影响。

分析师观点：汇价录得3日连跌后，当前正在测试20日均线，若确认跌破，则面临继续指向1.3500关口的压力。

方向：承压

美元兑日元

160.19/160.46阻力
159.78/159.52支持

美国财政部长贝森特表示，近期日元“未受到干预”。美元兑日元上周五突破盘整区间，录得逾一周以来最大涨幅。

分析师观点：汇价已突破近期区间顶部，并测试160关口上方。如果日内能守稳该位之上，多头动能将增强；但若遇阻，则可能向159.80下方回吐。

方向：温和看涨

美国原油期货（10月）

86.50/87.69阻力
83.67/82.72支持

由于交易员评估美联储利率前景，以及有关霍尔木兹海峡航运可能达成协议的传闻，上周五原油震荡下行。但在美国袭击伊朗霍尔木兹海峡的一个岛屿并引发德黑兰报复后，油价在周一早段反弹。

分析师观点：原油价格今早跳空高开，重返10日均线之上。若站稳该位之上，有望以87美元上方作为上周高位为目标。

方向：温和看涨

现货黄金

4511/4555阻力
4380/4324支持

现货白银

67.87/69.13阻力
64.82/63.82支持

美联储主席沃什在讲话中将通胀列为美联储的首要任务，被视为鹰派，促使交易员提高对9月份加息的预期，上周五黄金大幅回落。

分析师观点：黄金录得6月份以来的最大单日跌幅，下破10日均线后今早继续测试20日均线，随着市场继续消化沃什讲话，黄金短线可能承压，但是如果获得20日均线支撑则有望尝试反弹。

方向：略为承压

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

53998/54382阻力
53151/52773支持

上周五美股三大指数收盘集体下跌，美联储主席沃什重申抗击通胀的立场，市场对加息的预期有所升温，不过道指跌幅温和。

分析师观点：道指整体波动区间未因讲话而扩大，但仍处于承压状态。当前测试10日均线，预计日内可能在10、20日均线区间内整理。

方向：区间整理

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

29547/29653阻力
29002/28870支持

上周五大型科技股多数上涨，但英伟达跌4.57%，影响纳指整体表现，纳指盘中一度录得逾一周高位后回落。

分析师观点：纳指当前继续维持在10、20日均线交汇的29400附近，关注上述均线处的突破情况，短线暂时倾向于整理。

方向：区间整理

香港恒生指数HK50

25556/25676阻力
25200/25050支持

上周五港股走势反复，最终尾盘仅升19点；周线累跌424点或1.63%后，今早继续承压，低开逾百点。

分析师观点：HK50指数上周五收高，但由于继续受压于10日均线，动能受限，今早大幅回落，刷新逾一周低位。如果日内收盘低于25200，则8月中旬低位可能成为目标。

方向：承压

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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