Client Portal
Open account

Oil Surges on Geopolitical Risk; Eyes on Global PMIs

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

On Thursday, President Trump vowed “major military punishment” against Iran and its Houthi allies. Safe‑haven sentiment rose further, oil prices closed sharply higher, while U.S. equities fell under pressure from technology stocks.

Today’s PMI releases across major economies will provide preliminary signals of July’s economic activity. U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to accelerate modestly within expansion territory, but energy price uncertainty from the Strait of Hormuz blockade poses new challenges to U.S. and European resilience.

 

Global Market Review 24/07/2026

U.S. equities closed lower Thursday on concerns over tech spending and escalating U.S.–Iran tensions. Dow ‑0.97%, S&P 500 ‑1.21%, Nasdaq ‑2.15%.

Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened. Gold fell 2%, retreating from two‑week highs, as Middle East conflict drove energy prices higher and stoked inflation fears.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted, intensifying global supply disruption risks. Brent crude jumped over 6%, breaking above $100/bbl for the first time since May; WTI crude closed +6.8%.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **
  • 14:00 GB Retail Sales JUN **
  • 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **
  • 16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **
  • 16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **
  • 20:00 US Building Permits Final JUN **
  • 21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL ***
  • 22:00 US New Home Sales JUN **

 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

  • Monday: GERMANY Ifo Business Climate JUL, US Durable Goods Orders & Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Tuesday: RBA Gov Bullock Speech, US CB Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, AU CPI
  • Thursday: Fed Interest Rate Decision, EU GDP, BoE Interest Rate Decision, GERMANY CPI, US GDP & Core PCE Price Index, US Initial Jobless Claims
  • Friday: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, JP Unemployment Rate JUN, AU PPI, CN Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI, EU CPI, CA GDP, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

 

Markets Analysis 24/07/2026

  • Resistance: 1.1408 / 1.1422
  • Support: 1.1362 / 1.1348

ECB kept rates unchanged Thursday but left room for a September hike. Dollar rebound dominated sentiment, pushing EUR/USD to early‑July lows.

Analyst View: Attempting a rebound but short‑term weak. Watch PMI data; technically still vulnerable toward 1.1350 support.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 1.3399 / 1.3460
  • Support: 1.3300 / 1.3250

Sterling fell for a sixth straight day Thursday, trading near 1.3300 as Middle East tensions escalated. Focus today on PMI and retail sales.

Analyst View: Broke below 20‑day MA, hitting early‑July lows. Holding 1.3300 is key; failure could extend decline toward late‑June lows.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 164.29 / 164.56
  • Support: 163.39 / 163.11

USD/JPY climbed to near 40‑year highs as U.S. yields rose and Fed hike expectations strengthened. Japan June CPI rose 1.7% YoY, core CPI in line with forecasts.

Analyst View: Tested highs near 164 Thursday. Watch for resistance at elevated levels and potential position adjustments before the weekend.

Bias: High‑level cautious

  • Resistance: 94.97 / 97.27
  • Support: 89.54 / 87.20

Iran blocked two key global oil supply routes, while U.S. threats escalated. WTI broke above $90 Thursday.

Analyst View: Oil hit highs since June 8. Next technical resistance near $95 may cap momentum unless geopolitical headlines drive further breakout.

Bias: Mildly bullish

  • Resistance: 4081 / 4110
  • Support: 4017 / 3988

  • Resistance: 59.15 / 59.84
  • Support: 56.16 / 55.44

Gold retreated from two‑week highs Thursday, breaking below $4,100 as Fed hike expectations and dollar strength weighed. Silver plunged over 3%.

Analyst View: Gold ended four‑day rally, closing within MA ranges. Watch support near $4,020; failure could trigger deeper correction.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 52,068 / 52,304
  • Support: 51,306 / 51,074

Equities fell Thursday on capex concerns and geopolitical risks. Fed hike expectations added pressure.

Analyst View: Dow opened sharply lower, hitting late‑June lows. Bears may target 51,000; watch U.S. data for guidance.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 28,857 / 28,994
  • Support: 28,225 / 28,090

Tech earnings reignited concerns over AI spending. Tesla plunged 14.52% on weak margins and EPS; Google fell 7.13% after raising capex guidance.

Analyst View: Nasdaq fell over 2%, closing near last week’s lows. Prior support may hold temporarily, but rebound momentum looks weak.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 66,485 / 67,426
  • Support: 64,416 / 63,507

Bitcoin fell 1.5% Thursday, trading below $66k. The decline followed stalled progress on the U.S. Senate’s CLARITY Act and surging oil prices amid Middle East tensions and Trump’s remarks.

Analyst View: BTC/USD fell for a second day, testing MA support. Holding $64,200 could allow a short‑term rebound; failure risks a retest of weekly lows.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

Recent News
Start Trading Now !

Try our demo account for free to learn trading. When you’re ready, switch to a live account and start trading for real.

Open Live Account
Open Demo Account
Popular posts
Learn more
with ATFX
Related Content

© ATFX.COM. All rights reserved.

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a group of entities including:

AT Global Markets (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom with registration number 760555. The Registered Office: Tower 42, Leaf 35C, 25 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HQ, United Kingdom.

AT Global Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission with AFSL number 418036. The registered office: Tower 2 Darling Park, Level 16, 201 Sussex Street, Sydney NSW 2000.

AT Global Markets SA (Pty) Ltd is licensed in South Africa by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority with FSP license number 44816 and a licensed OTC Derivatives Provider. The registered office: Office 1801B, 18th Floor Portside Tower, 4 Bree Street, Cape Town, Western Cape 8001. ATFX SA and ATFX Connect are trading names of AT Global Markets SA (Pty) Ltd.

ATFX Global Markets (CY) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under the license no. 285/15. The Registered Office: 159 Leontiou A’ Street, Maryvonne Building Office 204, 3022, Limassol, Cyprus.

AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission with license number C118023331. The Registered Office: G08, Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius.

AT Global Markets (SC) Limited is licensed by the Seychelles Financial Services Authority as a Securities Dealer with License No. SD093. The Registered Office: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles.

AT Global Financial Services (HK) Limited is authorized and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in the Hong Kong with license number BUM667. The Registered Office: 17/F, 80 Gloucester Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

ATFX MENA Financial Services LLC is regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA) in the United Arab Emirates with Category 5 license number 20200000078.

EMERGING MARKETS is regulated by the Jordan Securities Commission authority as an Introducing Broker license number 643 and is the regulated entity in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

ATFX is a trade mark of AT Global Markets INTL LTD a company registered in Mauritius under FSC and all services in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is offered through its Introducing Broker.

AT Global Markets LLC is a Limited Liability Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with company number 333 LLC 2020. The Registered Office: Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

ATFX (Cambodia) Company Limited in Cambodia is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia with the license number 040.

HIGH RISK INVESTMENT WARNING: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts for Differences (CFDs) is highly speculative, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may sustain a loss of some or all of your invested capital, therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Please read the full Terms of Business.

Restricted Regions: AT Global Markets LLC does not provide services to residents of certain countries, including but not limited to Canada, Japan, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Iran and United States of America (USA), or any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not available for Hong Kong investors and not related to any corporation licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong.

All the information and materials posted on this website should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, solicitation to buy or sell any investments.

使用限制：本網站的產品及服務不適用於香港投資者及與任何香港證監會持牌公司無關。

網站內部的信息和素材不應被視為分銷，要約，買入或賣出任何投資產品。

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://atfxgm.eu/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

AT Global Markets (UK) Limited does not offer trading services to retail clients.
If you are a professional client, please visit https://atfxconnect.com