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Trump Hints at Potential Peace Deal; Market Risk Appetite Roars Back

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Geopolitical Update: US President Donald Trump cancelled planned airstrikes against Iran, citing progress in negotiations and hinting at a potential peace agreement this weekend.

Market Focus: Attention is on the UK’s monthly GDP data, with a 3-month rolling growth rate expected at 0.7% (up from 0.6%). A positive surprise could increase expectations for a Bank of England rate hike later this year.

 

Global Market Review 12/06/2026

The US annualised PPI for May saw its largest increase over three years. However, equities surged after Trump’s comments on the Middle East, with tech stocks leading. US Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened.

Gold prices rose 3.4% amid easing inflation fears over US-Iran developments, while crude oil tumbled to its lowest level since late April after Trump cancelled military strikes.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 14:00 EU GERMANY CPI Final MAY **
  • 14:00 GB GDP APR ***
  • 14:00 GB Manufacturing & Industrial Production APR **
  • 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JUN ***

 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

  • Monday: EU Industrial Production, US Industrial & Manufacturing Production, US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • Tuesday: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, RBA Interest Rate Decision, US Building Permits & Housing Starts
  • Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, GB CPI & PPI, EU CPI, US Retail Sales
  • Thursday: Fed Interest Rate Decision, GB Unemployment Rate, BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims
  • Friday: JP CPI, GERMANY PPI, GB Retail Sales

 

Markets Analysis 12/06/2026

20260612 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1605 / 1.1618
  • Support: 1.1550 / 1.1534

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, revising inflation forecasts to higher while cutting growth projections. The decision was largely expected, and EUR/USD strengthened alongside broader markets, buoyed by improved geopolitical conditions.

Analyst View: EUR/USD recorded its biggest daily gain in a month but is testing the 10-day moving average. Failure to break through may push the pair below 1.1550, while a clear breakout could open the path to 1.1600.

Analyst View: Mild Rebound

20260612 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3460 / 1.3485
  • Support: 1.3357 / 1.3333

De-escalation of US-Iran tensions dragged the greenback lower, lifting GBP/USD above 1.3400 to a four-day high. The pair holds its ground ahead of today’s UK GDP report and possible renewed expectations of a rate hike.

Analyst View: GBP/USD surged to near its daily high after dipping. The pair must break the 20-day moving average to sustain gains above 1.3400.

Bias: Mild Rebound

20260612 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 160.44 / 160.59
  • Support: 159.94 / 159.79

USD/JPY moved lower with the dollar yesterday, briefly rising above the one-week low to 160.00 during Friday’s Asian session. Concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities may limit the Yen’s decline and restrict the pair’s upside ahead of next week’s BoJ meeting.

Analyst View: USD/JPY partially rebounded after support at the 20-day moving average. Bulls aim to hold above 160 as the pair retests its 10-day average.

Bias: Wait-and-see around 160

20260612 US Crude Oil Futures (JUL) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 90.42 / 91.67
  • Support: 83.84 / 82.24

A resurgence of market optimism about an end to the conflict in the Middle East weighed heavily on crude oil prices. On news that the US and Iran could potentially sign a peace deal, oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels since mid-April.

Analyst View: Oil has sharply declined near this week’s lows. Watch if key support at $85 holds; if it breaks, further downside toward April 17 support is possible.

Bias: Under pressure

20260612 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4310/4377
  • Support: 4091/4025

20260612 Spot Silver Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 68.69/70.84
  • Support: 63.70/61.58

Gold rebounded to $4,200 after Trump cancelled strikes against Iran, consolidating its recent gains. However, expectations of a Fed rate hike later this year may limit its upside.

Analyst View: Gold turned around yesterday, bouncing back just before reaching the $4,000 mark. Immediate resistance for the current rebound is near the 10-day moving average around $4,330.

Bias: Short-term rebound

20260612 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 51102 / 51393
  • Support: 50176 / 49890

Investor sentiment got a boost after Trump hinted at a weekend peace deal with Iran. Easing geopolitical anxieties propelled US stock indices higher; the Dow gapped higher at the open and rallied to recover all prior-session losses.

Analyst View: Dow reclaimed the 20-day moving average and now tests 10-day resistance. A breakout could signal further recovery above 51,100.

Bias: Short-term rebound

20260612 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 29668 / 29928
  • Support: 28893 / 28567

Technology stocks rose as easing geopolitical tensions boosted risk appetite, with excitement over the SpaceX IPO adding to gains. This helped Nasdaq end its losing streak and led to gains among major benchmarks.

Analyst View: Nasdaq formed higher lows and focuses on resistance between 29,600–29,800 at the 10- and 20-day averages.

Bias: Short-term rebound

20260612 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 66387/68628
  • Support: 61336/59133

Bitcoin rose on Thursday as risk sentiment improved after President Trump announced a deal with Iran might be signed soon.

Analyst View: BTC/USD recorded its first daily gain in four days yesterday, moving above the 10-day moving average. Watch for potential upside toward last week’s resistance. A breakout could signal a shift to a higher trading range and a possible challenge of the $66,000 resistance.

Bias: Short-term rebound

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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