(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryUS PPI increases 1.4% in April, the largest gain since March 2022. The data triggered an immediate jump in US Treasury yields, significantly boosting market bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Additionally, the US Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Key Focus Today: President Trump’s visit to China dominates market attention and could affect global trade and economic policies. On the data front, watch the UK’s preliminary Q1 GDP—will high oil prices further affect the economy, and if Q1 growth holds at the expected 0.8% (previous 1%). US April Retail Sales are forecast to slow to 0.5% (previous 1.7%), potentially signalling weaker consumer confidence. |
Global Market Review 14/05/2026
Despite the US PPI exceeding expectations with its largest jump in four years, tech stocks propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to rebound and reach record closing highs on Wednesday, while the Dow closed lower. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.59%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%. In response to accelerating inflation, long-term US Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since mid-2025, and the US dollar extended its recovery.
Gold prices fell for a second consecutive session as rising US inflation dampened market expectations for rate cuts. Crude oil prices retreated, marking the first decline in four days, as surging hawkish expectations for the Fed sparked concerns over the oil demand outlook. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, while the IEA’s monthly oil market report stated that global oil supply will fail to meet total demand this year due to severe disruptions in Middle Eastern production caused by the war in Iran.
Key Events Today:
Trump-Xi Summit
- 14:00 GB GDP Growth Rate Prel Q1 ***
- 14:00 GB Industrial Production MAR **
- 14:00 GB Manufacturing Production MAR **
- 20:30 US Retail Sales APR ***
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
Tomorrow
- 07:50 JP PPI APR **
- 21:15 US Industrial Production APR **
- 21:15 US Manufacturing Production APR **
Markets Analysis 14/05/2026
- Resistance: 1.1743/1.1763
- Support: 1.1676/1.1655
EUR/USD remains in a consolidative phase at the end of the NA session on Wednesday. The ECB is expected to hike its deposit rate next month.
Analyst View: EUR/USD rebounds to around 1.1720 in Thursday’s early Asian session. Yesterday, the pair broke below key daily moving averages, opening downside potential towards 1.1700. Traders should monitor support at the late-April lows, with particular focus on the 1.1676/1.1655 range.
Bias: Mildly bearish
- Resistance: 1.3580/1.3610
- Support: 1.3485/1.3455
GBP/USD extended its decline on Wednesday, closing at its lowest level since April 30, amid US PPI data and UK political risks, with political uncertainty weighing heavily on the Pound.
Analyst View: GBP/USD accelerated its retracement yesterday, technically confirming that the daily moving averages have turned into resistance. Whether it can hold above 1.3500 will be key to determining the short-term trend. Market direction will be guided by the dual impact of US Retail Sales and UK GDP data.
Bias: Mildly bearish
- Resistance: 158.28/158.62
- Support: 157.17/156.83
Rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike fueled a rebound in USD/JPY yesterday, as the US Dollar recorded broad strength. This move has temporarily overshadowed the support for the Yen from BoJ rate-hike prospects.
Analyst View: After three consecutive days of gains, USD/JPY is now trading just below last week’s high. A break above last week’s high would signal a move towards 158.00; however, if resistance holds, watch for a reversal to test support near the 10-day moving average at 157.30.
Bias: Cautiously Bullish
- Resistance: 105.07/107.64
- Support: 97.20/93.96
Crude oil prices snapped a multi-day winning streak, retreating from above $103 amid accelerating inflation and rising expectations of further interest rate hikes. However, prices remain supported by the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and persistent concerns over natural gas pipeline supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Analyst View: After reaching a one-week high yesterday, crude oil prices fell as some traders took profits above $100. With support at the 10-day moving average, staying above this level could preserve the recent ascending channel, but a break below it would signal downward pressure towards a correction at $97.
Bias: Fading Momentum
- Resistance: 4743/4789
- Support: 4650/4593
- Resistance: 90.56/92.00
- Support: 85.90/84.44
Gold prices retreated as a stronger US dollar and rising yields slowed the upward momentum. After falling below $4,700, spot gold attempted to recover during Asia’s session. The market remains cautious ahead of the Trump–Xi summit and the April U.S. Retail Sales report.
Analyst View: Gold has fallen for two consecutive days amid rising expectations of Fed rate hikes. Technically, the price tested the major daily moving-average range but has held support for now. Consequently, bulls still have a chance to attempt a rebound, though momentum remains weak.
Bias: Short-term Bearish
- Resistance: 50366/50936
- Support: 49112/48562
Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices ended mixed, with the Dow lagging. The latest acceleration in U.S. inflation has revived the possibility of a Fed rate hike within the year, capping the Dow’s attempt to extend its rebound.
Analyst View: The Dow has recorded late-day rallies after intraday dips in two consecutive sessions, indicating that bulls are still technically trying to maintain control. As long as the index remains above its major moving averages on the daily chart, it is expected to continue oscillating within a high-level range. Market focus remains on the joint guidance from the China-U.S. talks and the upcoming U.S. retail sales data.
Bias: High-level consolidation
- Resistance: 29886/30286
- Support: 29006/28619
Driven by a rebound in semiconductor stocks, overnight tech shares regained momentum, with most mega-cap tech stocks closing higher. Alphabet surged nearly 4%, while Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia all rose more than 2%. The Nasdaq Composite flipped into positive territory in late trading, finishing at a new record high.
Analyst View: After resuming its rally and reaching a new peak yesterday, Nasdaq has reclaimed the 29,000 level. Bulls are likely to continue pushing for fresh records, with the 29,886–30,286 resistance zone as the next potential target. However, the rally’s intensity may be temporarily capped as the market adopts a “wait-and-see” approach ahead of the China-U.S. summit and upcoming U.S. retail sales data.
Bias: Regained momentum
- Resistance: 80971/81923
- Support: 77941/77006
Bitcoin slips for a third straight day, falling below $80k after hot April PPI data, as traders have even increased expectations of potential rate hikes later this year.
Analyst View: After three consecutive days of losses, BTC/USD has reached its lowest level in over a week. Following a breakdown below the 10-day moving average, the price is testing key support at the 20-day MA. A breach below this level would signal a return to April’s primary trading range, bringing the $77,941 – $77,006 support zone into focus.
Bias: Short-term Bearish
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