(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryTrump’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest proposal renewed doubts over a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while the World Bank expects energy prices to rise 24% in 2026 due to the Middle East war. The UAE will exit OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, weakening the group’s control over global oil supply. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but markets will focus on statement wording, inflation language, policy guidance, and signals from the new chair’s framework. A hawkish tone may support the dollar and pressure gold and stocks, while a dovish shift could have the opposite effect. The BoC decision will also be watched for its inflation view and impact on CAD. |
Global Market Review 29/04/2026
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, retreating from record closing highs as renewed concerns about the artificial intelligence boom weighed on technology shares ahead of quarterly earnings from five major tech giants. The Dow Jones fell 0.05%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.49%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.9%. U.S. Treasury yields rose to a three-week high, while the U.S. dollar strengthened as markets grew increasingly sceptical that the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran could be resolved in the near term.
Gold fell to a near four-week low, pressured by persistent inflation concerns after President Trump appeared dissatisfied with Iran’s latest proposal to end the war. Investors are also awaiting this week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Oil prices settled higher as concerns over supply shortages stemming from the Strait of Hormuz blockade intensified. The UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ also added to market uncertainty.
Key Events Today:
Japan Holiday
- 09:30 AU CPI YoY MAR **
- 17:00 EU Economic Sentiment APR **
- 20:00 EU GERMANY CPI MoM Prel APR **
- 20:30 US Building Permits MAR **
- 20:30 US Housing Starts MAR **
- 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MAR **
- 21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***
- 22:30 BoC Press Conference ***
- 22:30 EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock **
Tomorrow:
- 02:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision ***
- 02:30 Fed Press Conference ***
- 09:30 CN NBS Manufacturing & Composite PMI APR **
- 14:00 EU GERMANY GDP Flash Q1 ***
- 14:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales MoM MAR **
- 15:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate MAR **
- 17:00 EU CPI Flash YoY APR **
- 17:00 EU GDP Q1 YoY Prel ***
- 19:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes ***
- 20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision ***
- 20:30 US GDP & Core PCE Prices Q1 Prel ***
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 21:45 ECB Press Conference ***
Markets Analysis 29/04/2026
- Resistance: 1.1746/1.1771
- Support: 1.1643/1.1620
EURUSD slipped towards 1.1708 as the dollar recovered amid renewed concerns over a war in Iran and higher oil prices. Fed caution and energy-led inflation risks may keep the euro capped below the 1.1746–1.1771 resistance zone.
Analyst View: EURUSD is struggling to regain upside momentum after being rejected near the resistance zone. With oil-driven inflation risks supporting a cautious Fed tone, the euro may need a clear break above 1.1746 before buyers regain confidence.
Bias: Narrow-range wait-and-see.
- Resistance: 1.3546/1.3561
- Support: 1.3482/1.3467
GBPUSD eased towards 1.3520 as the dollar strengthened amid safe-haven demand. Sterling remains under pressure from Fed uncertainty, rising oil-driven inflation risks, and market caution ahead of major central bank guidance.
Analyst View: GBPUSD is attempting to stabilise after its pullback, but the rebound still lacks conviction, with price remaining below the 1.3546–1.3561 range. With Fed uncertainty and oil-driven inflation risks supporting the dollar, sterling may struggle to make further gains unless it breaks back above resistance.
Bias: Mildly bearish in the short term
- Resistance: 159.86/160.13
- Support: 159.26/159.00
USDJPY held near 159.65 after the BoJ kept rates at 0.75%. A larger 6–3 policy split briefly supported the yen, but growth concerns later pushed USD/JPY back towards the 160-sensitive area.
Analyst View: USDJPY remains well supported, with buyers continuing to defend the 159.00–159.26 area. However, as the price approaches 160, it becomes increasingly sensitive to BoJ comments, intervention warnings, and profit-taking pressure.
Bias: Mildly bullish
- Resistance: 105.63/108.70
- Support: 95.51/92.39
WTI surged 3.7% to $99.93 and briefly tested $100 as fears of Hormuz disruption outweighed the UAE’s OPEC exit. Supply risk remains the dominant driver, while hopes for US-Iran peace continue to fade.
Analyst View: WTI is now driven more by supply concerns than by demand logic. As long as the Hormuz disruption risk remains unresolved, dips may continue to attract buyers, though price could see heavier profit-taking as it approaches the $105.63–$108.70 resistance band.
Bias: Mildly bullish
- Resistance: 4638/4675
- Support: 4540/4511
- Resistance: 76.39/77.95
- Support: 71.74/69.78
Gold fell nearly 2% to trade at nearly $4,593 after hitting a four-week low at $4,554.91. Rising oil prices revived inflation concerns, reducing rate-cut expectations and leaving gold vulnerable to a $4,500 level.
Analyst View: Gold is trading with a clear defensive tone as the market shifts from safe-haven demand to concerns about sticky inflation and higher real yields. Unless price can recover above $4,638–$4,675, any rebound may remain vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
Bias: Weak wait-and-see
- Resistance: 49815/50366
- Support: 48562/48002
The Dow slipped 0.05% as investors stayed cautious ahead of Fed guidance and major earnings. Rising oil prices reignited inflation concerns, while mixed corporate results kept buying interest selective.
Analyst View: Dow shows relative stability compared with tech-heavy indices, but the rebound lacks strong follow-through. As long as price holds above 48,002–48,562, buyers retain a defensive base, though inflation concerns and Fed caution may keep the upside capped below 49,815–50,366.
Bias: Range-bound wait-and-see.
- Resistance: 27451/27830
- Support: 26551/26165
NAS100 fell 0.90% as AI growth concerns resurfaced ahead of major tech earnings. Reports that OpenAI missed internal targets pressured chip- and data-centre stocks, while Fed and inflation risks added to caution.
Analyst View: NAS100 remains structurally stronger than the Dow, but the latest pullback indicates buyers are becoming more selective at higher levels. As long as price holds above 26,165–26,551, the broader recovery remains intact, though AI-related disappointment may slow momentum below 27,451–27,830.
Bias: Range-bound wait-and-see.
- Resistance: 77298/78136
- Support: 75268/74602
Bitcoin slipped towards $76,377 after another failed breakout, near $79,000. US-Iran tensions, higher oil-driven inflation risks, AI-sector concerns, and key central bank decisions kept risk appetite weak, though institutional interest still provided support.
Analyst View: Bitcoin is attempting to stabilise after testing lower levels, but the recovery remains fragile as the price stays below the $77,298–$78,136 resistance zone. A stronger rebound will require renewed risk appetite; otherwise, sellers may continue to defend the upper range.
Bias: Neutral to slightly bearish below $77,298.
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