(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryThe fragile Middle East ceasefire is holding, while renewed diplomacy may support the U.S.-Iran negotiation outlook. Trump, however, has raised pressure on Iran ahead of the talks. U.S. February PCE rose 0.4% m/m, the fastest since February 2025, while Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.5% annualized, offering mixed signals on inflation and growth. Today’s focus is whether there will be any progress from the U.S.-Iran talks, while attention also remains on U.S. inflation. U.S. March CPI year-on-year is expected to accelerate sharply to 3.3% from 2.4%, suggesting inflation has re-accelerated amid a surge in energy prices. Markets will watch closely whether the reading beats expectations, as that could further delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April will also be in focus to see whether rising inflation expectations have further weakened consumer confidence. |
Global Market Review 10/04/2026
Talks aimed at peacefully resolving the Middle East conflict are moving forward, easing market concerns about the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. U.S. equities extended their gains, with the Dow Jones rising 0.58%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.8%. EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.1698, after touching a one-month high of 1.1721. GBP/USD gained 0.27% to 1.3430.
Gold climbed more than 1%, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, while investors continued to assess the durability of the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran and awaited the U.S. CPI release. Spot gold closed 1.01% higher at $4,763.62 per ounce. As the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East held and Israel signaled that it would begin direct talks with Lebanon as soon as possible, international oil prices extended their pullback.
Key Events Today:
- 07:50 JP PPI YoY MAR **
- 09:30 CN CPI & PPI YoY MAR **
- 14:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY MAR **
- 20:30 CA Unemployment Rate MAR **
- 20:30 US CPI YoY MAR ***
- 22:00 US Factory Orders MoM FEB**
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel APR ***
Key Data and Events Coming Week:
- Monday: US Existing Home Sales MAR; OPEC Monthly Report
- Tuesday: CN Balance of Trade MAR; JP Industrial Production FEB; US NFIB Business Optimism Index MAR; US PPI MAR
- Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change; GB Unemployment Rate FEB; EU Industrial Production FEB; US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index APR
- Thursday: Fed Beige Book; AU Unemployment Rate MAR; CN GDP Q1; CN Retail Sales & Industrial Production MAR; GB GDP FEB; GB Manufacturing & Industrial Production FEB; EU CPI Final MAR; CA CPI MAR; US Initial Jobless Claims; US Manufacturing & Industrial Production MAR
- Friday: EU Balance of Trade FEB
Markets Analysis 10/04/2026
- Resistance: 1.1766/1.1795
- Support: 1.1629/1.1600
The euro firmed to 1.1698 after touching 1.1721, supported by broad USD weakness as traders weighed fragile prospects for a Middle East ceasefire and awaited U.S. CPI. A softer dollar kept EUR/USD in the bid, though upside may remain cautious ahead of inflation data.
Analyst View: EURUSD stays constructive above 1.1600–1.1629 support, but upside may stall into the 1.1766–1.1795 resistance zone. A soft dollar helps, though CPI risk could cap gains before a clearer breakout unfolds.
Bias: Consolidating around the 1.1700 level
- Resistance: 1.3516/1.3555
- Support: 1.3357/1.3319
GBPUSD rose to 1.343 as the weaker dollar offset broader geopolitical caution. The pair stayed supported by risk improvement and softer USD pricing, but near-term direction will still hinge on whether U.S. CPI strengthens the higher-for-longer Fed narrative.
Analyst View: GBPUSD remains supported above the 1.3319–1.3357 support zone, but the 1.3516–1.3555 resistance area may cap upside. A softer USD keeps the pair underpinned, though U.S. CPI could determine whether bulls can extend higher.
Bias: Facing resistance near the top of the range
- Resistance: 159.77/160.13
- Support: 158.64/158.29
USDJPY edged up to 159.02 as the yen softened, with Japan’s consumer confidence weakening and BoJ policy expectations remaining cautious. Even so, the pair is still driven mainly by U.S. inflation expectations and Treasury yield sentiment ahead of CPI.
Analyst View: USDJPY bounced off the 158.29–158.64 support pocket, indicating that dip-buying interest remains. But unless price can reclaim the 159.77–160.12 resistance band, this looks more like a rebound inside the range than a clean bullish breakout.
Bias: Under pressure below 159
- Resistance: 107.91/112.81
- Support: 92.32/87.50
WTI traded near $98.43 after settling at $97.87, with intraday gains fueled by concerns over Hormuz disruption and doubts over the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. If tensions re-escalate, crude could quickly retest the $100 handle.
Analyst View: WTI is trying to rebuild from the 87.50–92.32 support area after a violent pullback, but the recovery still looks fragile below 107.91–112.81. Unless geopolitical risk flares up again, this feels more like a bounce than a full return to breakout mode.
Bias: Two-way volatility while under pressure
- Resistance: 4806/4939
- Support: 4672/4538
- Resistance: 78.91/82.34
- Support: 72.07/67.84
Spot gold held near $4,760 after closing at $4,789.67, supported by a softer dollar and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Still, the market is reluctant to chase higher before U.S. CPI, as hotter inflation could revive hawkish Fed expectations.
Analyst View: Gold is no longer in free fall, but it is not fully back in control either. The bounce has carried price back toward the middle of the range, yet the real test sits higher at $4,806–$4,939, where sellers may start showing up again.
Bias: Watching from below $4,800
- Resistance: 49080/49710
- Support: 47799/47159
The Dow gained 0.58% as easing fears over immediate Middle East escalation lifted sentiment. Better risk appetite helped equities recover, but the rebound remains vulnerable if U.S. CPI revives inflation concerns and pushes Fed tightening expectations back up.
Analyst View: The Dow’s recovery has improved the near-term tone, particularly after reclaiming the 47,159 area. Even so, the broader structure still points to a corrective rebound unless price can extend convincingly into the 49,080–49,710 resistance band, where supply pressure may re-emerge.
Bias: Bullish above 48,000
- Resistance: 25289/25674
- Support: 24506/24115
NAS100 climbed 0.83%, outperforming as easing geopolitical stress and strong AI-related corporate optimism improved sentiment. However, tech remains sensitive to yields, so any upside surprise in CPI could challenge the rally by further lifting rate expectations.
Analyst View: The NAS100 has staged a solid rebound, but the next meaningful test sits at 25,289–25,674. Clearing that zone would strengthen the recovery case, while failure there may suggest the move is still only a relief bounce.
Bias: Bullish above 25,000
- Resistance: 73096/74377
- Support: 70488/69184
Bitcoin rebounded to around $72,349, supported by improved risk sentiment after Israel signaled willingness to negotiate with Lebanon, reinforcing the fragile ceasefire backdrop. Still, upside remains cautious as traders watch U.S. CPI and crypto policy uncertainty.
Analyst View: Bitcoin has recovered its footing above the $69,184–$70,488 support area, but the market is now approaching a tougher decision zone near $73,096–$74,377, where upside momentum may begin to slow.
Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish
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