(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryMediated by Pakistan, President Trump agreed to pause the “bombing and attacks” on Iran for two weeks, on the condition that Iran reopens the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s foreign minister said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be maintained for two weeks. The two sides are expected to hold talks on April 10. Following news of the two-week ceasefire, oil prices plunged on Wednesday, gold extended its rebound, and equity index futures surged. Today’s key focus is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest interest rate decision. The market expects the RBNZ to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. However, due to elevated energy prices, some investors are now pricing in around a 60% chance of a rate hike in May. Later, attention will turn to the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes early the next day, to see whether officials provide further insight into their inflation outlook and whether they continue to emphasize a wait-and-see stance. |
Global Market Review 08/04/2026
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed on Tuesday, as signs of progress in negotiations emerged ahead of President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.18%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.08% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%. The U.S. dollar hovered near its highest level in almost 11 months, as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. deadline.
Gold rose overnight, gaining 1.19% to close at $4,702.50 per ounce, as market attention remained focused on Trump’s deadline. After Trump agreed to pause the “bombing and attacks” on Iran, spot gold climbed more than 2% during Wednesday’s Asian session, while WTI crude oil plunged by more than 12%.
Key Events Today:
- 10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision ***
- 11:00 RBNZ Press Conference ***
- 14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM FEB **
- 17:00 EU PPI MoM FEB **
- 17:00 EU Retail Sales MoM FEB **
- 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **
Tomorrow:
- 02:00 FOMC Minutes ***
- 14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MoM FEB **
- 20:30 US GDP & Core PCE Prices Q4 ***
- 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index YoY FEB ***
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
Markets Analysis 08/04/2026
- Resistance: 1.1728/1.1766
- Support: 1.1629/1.1600
EURUSD found support and rose to 1.1670 in early trading as the US Dollar softened broadly. The reported two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran reduced safe-haven demand for the Dollar, allowing the euro to recover during the Asian session.
Analyst View: EUR/USD has regained short-term upside momentum after defending the 1.1600 area, and the breakout above near-term congestion improves the tone. The next test is whether the price can cleanly extend into the 1.1728–1.1766 resistance band.
Bias: Bullish near 1.1700
- Resistance: 1.3479/1.3516
- Support: 1.3357/1.3319
GBPUSD also benefited from the broader pullback in the Dollar and climbed to 1.3390, following a similar pattern to EUR/USD. As geopolitical tensions eased and risk sentiment improved, Sterling gained alongside other non-USD currencies.
Analyst View: GBPUSD is recovering in a more orderly manner after reclaiming the nearby base, suggesting short-term demand has improved. Even so, the pair still needs a firm push into 1.3479–1.3516 to confirm that the rebound is broadening.
Bias: Bullish near 1.3400
- Resistance: 158.98/159.33
- Support: 158.29/157.95
USDJPY eased in early trading mainly because broad USD safe-haven demand faded, rather than due to a strong standalone yen catalyst. As Middle East tensions temporarily cooled, the Dollar pulled back, dragging the pair lower.
Analyst View: USD/JPY has softened after slipping back below the 158.98–159.33 zone, shifting the near-term balance away from the recent highs. For now, the chart points more toward support retest risk than an immediate return to the upside.
Bias: Bearish below 159
- Resistance: 101.95/107.91
- Support: 87.50/82.77
WTI crude plunged more than 19% in early trade and was quoted near $91.27 per barrel. The main driver was Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran, which prompted markets to unwind the heavy geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices.
Analyst View: WTI has undergone aggressive repricing following the ceasefire headlines, and the break below 101.95–107.91 leaves the prior bullish structure under clear pressure. Unless that zone is quickly recovered, rallies may be treated as corrective rather than trend-restoring.
Bias: Bearish below $98
- Resistance: 4939/5071
- Support: 4672/4538
- Resistance: 78.91/82.34
- Support: 72.07/67.83
Spot gold rose more than 2.5% in early trading, moving back above 4810 and trading near $4,823/oz. Despite the ceasefire-driven collapse in oil, gold continued to find support as investors waited for the Fed minutes and fresh data, keeping policy uncertainty in focus.
Analyst View: Gold has rebounded with stronger momentum than a typical relief bounce, and the move back above 4,672 improves the short-term structure. The key question now is whether buyers can sustain follow-through toward the 4,939–5,071 resistance zone.
Bias: Bullish above $4,730
- Resistance: 47159/47799
- Support: 45715/45086
The Dow lagged overnight in cash trading, closing down 0.18%, but futures rebounded sharply after the ceasefire headlines. That suggests the market is shifting from pricing an oil-shock growth hit to pricing relief from inflation and recession fears.
Analyst View: The Dow is attempting a near-term recovery from the 45,086–45,715 support base, but the broader structure remains corrective while price stays below 47,159–47,799. A sustained move through that resistance band would be needed to signal stronger upside follow-through.
Bias: Short-term bullish
- Resistance: 24506/24898
- Support: 23630/23232
The NAS100 had already shown relative resilience overnight, closing slightly higher and extending its winning streak to five sessions. After the ceasefire headline, broader risk appetite improved further, which is supportive for growth stocks.
Analyst View: The NAS100 is still in recovery mode, but it is starting from a firmer base than before. Holding above 23,630 keeps the rebound structure intact, while 24,506–24,898 is the area that needs to give way for momentum to build further.
Bias: Short-term bullish
- Resistance: 74382/76013
- Support: 70504/69204
Bitcoin moved higher alongside broader risk assets. After the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire announcement improved market sentiment, Bitcoin rose about 3.4% to around $71,664, suggesting investors were rotating back into high-beta assets that had been pressured by war and oil-shock fears.
Analyst View: Bitcoin has pushed back above the $70,504 pivot and is re-entering the upper half of its recent range, which improves the near-term tone. The next challenge is whether price can sustain acceptance above this area and extend toward $74,382–$76,013.
Bias: Mild bullish bias above $70,504
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