(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryIran said on Monday that it wants the war with the United States and Israel to end permanently, while resisting pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal with Iran was “not good enough” and warned that if no deal is reached before Tuesday evening’s deadline, Iran could face major strikes on civilian infrastructure and even be “wiped out.” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also warned that the Middle East war could slow global growth and worsen inflation. Today’s focus is on the final March Services and Composite PMI readings from major economies. Investors will also watch U.S. durable goods orders, which are expected to return to positive monthly growth, though the rebound may be limited by weak manufacturing momentum. The Eurozone April Sentix Investor Confidence Index is also expected to show further deterioration. |
Global Market Review
U.S. stocks rose on Monday as investors continued to assess the possibility of a Middle East ceasefire, despite Trump’s threat to escalate attacks further if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, U.S. job growth rebounded more than expected in March, with payrolls increasing by 178,000, the largest gain since December 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.36%, the S&P 500 gained 0.45%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.5%. Currency market trading was subdued yesterday due to holidays in parts of Europe and Asia, while U.S. Treasuries and the dollar remained relatively stable. 07/04/2026
Gold prices edged lower as investors closely monitored developments in the U.S.-Iran situation and awaited further signals on the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,647.39 per ounce. Oil prices rose in volatile trading as indirect talks between the United States and Iran offered some hope of easing hostilities, even as rhetoric from both sides continued to intensify.
Key Events Today:
- 15:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final MAR **
- 16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final MAR **
- 16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final MAR **
- 16:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence APR **
- 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders FEB **
Tomorrow:
- 00:00 EIA Short Term Energy Outlook **
- 04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock ***
- 10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision ***
- 11:00 RBNZ Press Conference ***
- 14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM FEB **
- 17:00 EU PPI MoM FEB **
- 17:00 EU Retail Sales MoM FEB **
- 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **
Markets Analysis 07/04/2026
- Resistance: 1.1586/1.1614
- Support: 1.1499/1.1472
EURUSD held steady near 1.1540, as traders balanced softer US ISM Services PMI data against renewed safe-haven demand for the dollar amid escalating Iran tensions. At the same time, expectations of 2–3 ECB rate hikes in 2026 offered some support to the euro.
Analyst View: EUR/USD remains trapped within a broad rising channel, but upside momentum has faded after repeated rejection from the 1.1586–1.1614 resistance zone. Unless bulls reclaim that ceiling, the pair risks drifting back toward the 1.1499–1.1472 support area.
Bias: Neutral in the short term, waiting for a breakout
- Resistance: 1.3287/1.3318
- Support: 1.3187/1.3155
GBPUSD rebounded above 1.3200 after finding dip-buying near 1.3175, as reports of a possible 45-day US-Iran ceasefire weighed on the safe-haven dollar. Still, lingering geopolitical uncertainty and Trump’s renewed threat over the Strait of Hormuz continued to limit the pair’s broader upside.
Analyst View: GBP/USD remains under a broader descending structure, and the rebound still looks corrective while price stays below the 1.3287–1.3318 resistance zone. Unless bulls break cleanly above that ceiling, the pair remains vulnerable to slipping back toward the 1.3187–1.3155 support area.
Bias: Rebound remains capped below 1.3250
- Resistance: 160.46/160.81
- Support: 159.34/158.99
USDJPY held steady near 159.60 as softer US ISM Services PMI offset the dollar’s geopolitical support from rising Iran tensions. At the same time, growing expectations for a BoJ rate hike later this month helped keep the yen supported, leaving the pair stuck near the top of its recent range.
Analyst View: USD/JPY is pressing higher within an ascending structure, but the climb is starting to look laboured as price leans into the 160.46–160.81 supply area. The pair still has a bullish posture, though upside may turn increasingly fragile if repeated tests fail to produce a clean breakout.
Bias: Mildly bullish in the short term
- Resistance: 119.48/124.56
- Support: 108.31/103.27
WTI crude surged above $112 after Trump signalled no clear timeline for ending the Iran conflict, intensifying fears of prolonged supply disruption. With Hormuz shipping risks rising and inflation concerns building, oil’s move increasingly reflected a strong geopolitical risk premium.
Analyst View: WTI is holding a strong recovery structure, but price is now pressing into a stretched area after the sharp vertical rally. The market still carries bullish momentum, though follow-through may turn more uneven here, with dips likely to be watched as pullbacks rather than outright trend reversals unless 108.31–103.27 gives way.
Bias: Bullish above $110
- Resistance: 4811/4887
- Support: 4492/4417
- Resistance: 78.91/82.34
- Support: 67.83/64.35
Gold fell 1.7% to around $4,676 after briefly touching $4,800, as Trump’s hardline remarks on Iran pushed oil sharply higher and further reduced Fed rate-cut expectations. A stronger dollar index at 100.02 also weighed on bullion, while some investors sold gold for liquidity despite rising geopolitical risk.
Analyst View: Gold is stabilising after the sharp drop, but the rebound still lacks conviction below 4,811–4,887. Unless buyers reclaim that resistance band, the price may stay vulnerable to another pullback toward 4,492–4,417.
Bias: Waiting for a breakout within the range
- Resistance: 47565/48128
- Support: 45741/45187
The Dow rose 0.3% to around 46,500 as investors reacted to Friday’s stronger-than-expected payrolls report and hopes for a possible US-Iran ceasefire. Still, weaker ISM Services data and a sharp jump in prices paid kept stagflation concerns alive, limiting the index’s upside.
Analyst View: The Dow is trying to stabilise after a sharp breakdown, but the rebound still looks like a recovery bounce beneath 47,565–48,128. Unless price reclaims that zone, upside may remain tentative while support stays in focus.
Bias: Mildly bullish above 46,500
- Resistance: 24898/25289
- Support: 23630/23232
The NAS100 gained 0.5%, extending last week’s rebound as easing ceasefire expectations supported risk appetite after the holiday closure. However, rising oil prices and hotter input-cost signals from ISM Services suggested inflationary pressures are still building, keeping the rally cautious.
Analyst View: The NAS100 is rebounding from the lower support band, but the move still sits beneath the 24,898–25,289 resistance zone. Unless buyers clear that area, this recovery may stay tactical rather than trend-changing.
Bias: Mildly bullish above 24,000
- Resistance: 70501/71802
- Support: 66269/64990
Bitcoin rose 1.6% to above $69,000 as hopes of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran improved risk appetite. Despite Trump’s renewed threats and stronger US jobs data supporting higher-for-longer Fed expectations, sentiment stayed supported by broader risk-on flows and Strategy’s latest BTC purchase.
Analyst View: Bitcoin snapped higher from the lower support base, but this latest push still feels like a test of overhead supply rather than a clean trend escape. The market has improved, though 70,501–71,802 still looks like the area that decides whether upside can truly stretch.
Bias: Neutral to mildly bullish above 66,269
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