Market Highlight 14/01/2026
U.S. consumer inflation for December came in in line with expectations, with the CPI rising 2.7% year-on-year. Some of the distortions that had artificially depressed November inflation—due to the government shutdown—are gradually fading, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this month. U.S. equities ended lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.8%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq slipping 0.1%.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.28% to 99.15. The euro weakened against the dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.22% to 1.1641, while the Japanese yen slid to its weakest level against the dollar since July 2024.
The inflation data strengthened market bets on interest rate cuts later this year, while ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty continued to fuel safe-haven demand. Gold and silver pulled back slightly after hitting fresh record highs. Spot gold edged down 0.1% to USD 4,587.67 per ounce. Meanwhile, international oil prices jumped more than 2%, as concerns over potential disruptions to Iranian crude exports outweighed expectations that Venezuela could increase supply.
Key Outlook 14/01/2026
Later today, the U.S. will release producer price data, with December PPI year-on-year expected at 2.6%. U.S. retail sales for November will also be closely watched, with the monthly growth rate forecast to rebound to 0.4% from stagnation, supported by a key boost from holiday-season spending.
In the early hours of Thursday, attention will turn to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, with markets focusing on the latest assessments of economic activity, employment conditions, and inflation trends.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 11:00 CN Balance of Trade DEC **
- 21:30 US PPI OCT **
- 21:30 US Retail Sales NOV**
- 23:00 US Existing Home Sales DEC **
- 23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **
Tomorrow:
- 03:00 Fed Beige Book ***
- 07:50 JP PPI DEC **
- 15:00 GB GDP NOV **
- 15:00 GB Industrial Production NOV **
- 15:00 GB Manufacturing Production NOV **
- 18:00 EU Industrial Production NOV **
- 18:00 EU Balance of Trade NOV**
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 21:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index JAN **
Markets Analysis 14/01/2026
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1689/1.1711
- Support: 1.1593/1.1569
EUR/USD remained under pressure as U.S. CPI data supported rate-cut expectations but failed to derail the dollar, while geopolitical and policy uncertainty capped risk appetite. Selling interest continues to emerge on rebounds, with price struggling to regain the former support zone near 1.1711 and downside pressure persisting toward 1.1593 area.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3470/1.3507
- Support: 1.3379/1.3350
GBP/USD edged lower amid broad USD strength, with a lack of fresh UK data catalysts keeping sterling on the defensive. Technically, price remains within a corrective downswing, with rebounds capped below the former support-turned-resistance zone around 1.3470–1.3507, while downside focus stays near 1.3379–1.3350.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 160.09/160.51
- Support: 158.73/158.31
USD/JPY hit fresh highs as Japanese political uncertainty and expectations of prolonged policy accommodation weighed on the yen, while firm U.S. yields supported the dollar. Technically, price remains in a strong upward structure, with pullbacks near 158.73-158.31 attracting buyers and keeping upside risks toward 160.09-160.51intact.
US Crude Oil Futures (FEB)
- Resistance: 61.79/62.62
- Support: 59.67/59.03
WTI jumped over 2% as escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed concerns over potential Iran supply disruptions lifted risk premiums, overshadowing inventory worries. Price has accelerated out of its prior consolidation range, with an upside bias holding if pullbacks stay above the $59.67–59.03 support band and momentum continue to build toward the $61.79–62.62 zone.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4688/4721
- Support: 4550/4509
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 90.83/92.46
- Support: 83.92/81.88
Gold surged to fresh record highs as softer U.S. inflation reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts, while ongoing geopolitical tensions continued to drive safe-haven demand. From a technical perspective, price remains comfortably within a rising channel, with pullbacks finding buyers near the $4,550–4,509 zone, keeping momentum biased to the upside as long as this base holds.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 49772/50088
- Support: 48742/48431
The Dow Futures eased, as financial stocks dragged on concerns over proposed credit-card rate caps, despite softer CPI data supporting Fed rate-cut expectations. Price is consolidating near record highs within an ascending channel. Holding above the 48742–48431 support keeps the broader uptrend intact, while upside remains capped near 49,772–50,088.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25835/26179
- Support: 25565/25290
The NAS100 softened as profit-taking surfaced near record levels, even as softer U.S. inflation kept rate-cut hopes alive. From a technical perspective, price is still riding a rising structure, but candles show hesitation near the upper band, suggesting consolidation rather than a reversal, while 25,290–25,565 acts as a key support, and 25,835 caps upside.
BTC
- Resistance: 97084/98626
- Support: 93135/91943
Bitcoin surged above $95,000 after Strategy announced a $1.3B purchase, reinforcing institutional confidence, while steady U.S. CPI data supported risk sentiment. Technically, the price has broken out of consolidation and remains in an ascending structure. Near-term resistance sits around $97,084–$ 98,626, with support at $93,135–91,943.
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