(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Summary
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Global Market Overview 03/03/2026
Following the volatility triggered by U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran, U.S. equities closed relatively steady on Monday, recovering from earlier losses. The Dow fell 0.15%, while the S&P 500 edged higher and the Nasdaq gained 0.36%. The U.S. Dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand, with the Dollar Index (DXY) rising 0.31% to 98.37 and the Euro falling 0.85% to 1.1712.
Safe-haven gold closed higher yesterday amid fears of an expanding conflict, though gains were capped by the stronger dollar; spot gold settled at $5,326.94 per ounce, up 0.9%. International oil prices surged as U.S.-Israeli strikes and Tehran’s retaliatory actions forced the closure of multiple oil and gas facilities, disrupting critical shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Events Today:
- 07:30 JP Unemployment Rate JAN **
- 18:00 EU CPI YoY Flash FEB **
Tomorrow:
- 05:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock ***
- 06:00 AU Services & Composite PMI Final FEB **
- 08:30 AU GDP QoQ Q4 **
- 08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final FEB **
- 09:30 CN NBS Manufacturing & Composite PMI FEB **
- 16:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final FEB **
- 17:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final FEB **
- 17:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final FEB **
- 18:00 EU Unemployment Rate JAN **
- 18:00 EU PPI JAN **
- 21:15 US ADP Employment Change FEB ***
- 22:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final FEB **
- 23:00 US ISM Services PMI FEB **
- 23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **
Markets Analysis 03/03/2026
- Resistance: 1.1720/1.1731
- Support: 1.1663/1.1649
EUR/USD dropped 0.85% to 1.1712 as surging oil prices from Mideast tensions pressured the Euro. Europe’s high energy sensitivity relative to the U.S. weighed heavily on the currency, while the Greenback benefited from sustained safe-haven inflows and delayed expectations of a Fed rate cut.
Analyst View: The pair is trending lower within a descending channel and has broken below previous consolidation zones. Current price action shows a struggle to reclaim the 1.1720 resistance; a failure to do so reinforces the bearish momentum toward the 1.1649 support floor.
Bias: Bearish below 1.1700.
- Resistance: 1.3434/1.3455
- Support: 1.3347/1.3330
Sterling bounced off eleven-week lows (1.3310) to settle near 1.3400 as safe-haven Dollar demand faded mid-session. Despite the recovery, Sterling remains pressured by the Green Party’s shock by-election win and uncertainty surrounding the BoE’s March 19 rate decision following higher-than-expected services inflation.
Analyst View: The pair formed a long lower wick near the support, suggesting strong dip-buying interest. However, price action remains trapped within a descending channel. A sustained break above the 1.3455 resistance zone is required to shift the short-term bearish structure toward a more neutral outlook.
Bias: Bearish below 1.3450.
- Resistance: 158.28/158.93
- Support: 156.87/156.24
USD/JPY rose 0.7% to 157.13. Despite hawkish signals from Japan’s central bank, the Yen remained weak against a strengthening Dollar driven by safe-haven demand and soaring global energy costs.
Analyst View: The pair is trending higher within an ascending channel, recently breaking above the 156.8 level. Sustained momentum suggests a potential retest of the 158.28 resistance zone, provided the new support floor at 156.24 remains intact during the current risk-off environment.
Bias: Bullish above 156.50.
- Resistance: 73.13/74.46
- Support: 70.51/68.82
WTI crude jumped 6.3% to $71.23. Prices surged after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global supply chains and causing significant tankers to stall near the critical waterway.
Analyst View: Prices have surged into a major resistance zone between 73.13 and 74.46. A decisive breakout above this range could signal a move toward $80.00, while a failure to hold the 70.51 support level may lead to a temporary pullback.
Bias: Bullish above $70.
- Resistance: 5398/5430
- Support: 5259/5227
- Resistance: 95.47/98.84
- Support: 84.80/81.48
Gold holds steady near $5,330 after reaching a high of $5,420. Massive safe-haven demand remains driven by the U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran’s leadership and nuclear infrastructure.
While geopolitical risk bolsters prices, resurfacing inflation concerns from rising oil may prompt the Fed to maintain higher rates, capping non-yielding assets.
Analyst View: Gold is trading within a steep ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. Despite a slight pullback from recent highs, the trend remains strongly positive if prices stay above the $5,227-$5,259 support zone. Investors are now pivoting to Fedspeak from Williams, Schmid, and Kashkari for cues on the interest rate trajectory.
Bias: Bullish above $5,300.
- Resistance: 49472/49719
- Support: 48429/48188
The Dow fell 0.15% as airline and cruise stocks plunged amid rising fuel costs and airspace closures, offsetting gains in the energy sector during volatile trading.
Analyst View: The index is trading within an ascending channel. While it has recently pulled back from the 49,719 resistance level, it remains supported above 48,188. A failure to hold the 48,429 zone could signal a deeper correction toward the channel’s lower boundary.
Bias: Mildly Bearish below 49,000.
- Resistance: 25227/25406
- Support: 24648/24471
NAS100 gained 0.36% as strong buying in AI-related tech stocks, including NVIDIA and Microsoft, successfully offset broader market concerns regarding regional conflict and rising oil prices.
Analyst View: The index is consolidating within a narrowing range after recovering from recent lows. While it has successfully stayed above the 24,471 support zone, it faces immediate overhead resistance at 25,227. A decisive breakout above 25,406 is needed to confirm a shift in medium-term momentum.
Bias: Mildly Bearish below 25,000.
- Resistance: 70937/71913
- Support: 67722/66728
Bitcoin staged a strong Monday recovery, gaining 5.7% to reach $69,428 after a weekend slide to $63,000 sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Sentiment was lifted by Michael Saylor’s strategy of purchasing 3,015 coins for $204.1 million and a general bounce back in equity markets.
Analyst View: The rapid price stabilization suggests investors view the geopolitical escalation as a contained, near-term risk rather than a structural downturn. Technical charts indicate a potential retest of the $70,937 level if the current support at $67,722 holds firmly during the upcoming sessions.
Bias: Bullish above $67,722.
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