Market Highlight 10/12/2025
U.S. job openings rose by 12,000 to 7.67 million in October, but hiring remained subdued and the quit rate fell to its lowest level in five years, underscoring ongoing economic uncertainty. The S&P 500 edged slightly lower on Tuesday as investors anticipated that even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates this week, policymakers may maintain a hawkish tone. JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, became the biggest drag on the index after warning of elevated expenses heading into 2026. The Dow fell 0.37%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.09%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.
Optimism remained firm across markets ahead of the Fed’s decision. Gold climbed, with spot prices up 0.49% to $4,209.32 per ounce. Silver surged 4.38% to a record high, hitting the milestone of $60 per ounce amid persistent supply tightness. International oil prices extended their decline as investors monitored progress in Ukraine peace negotiations, concerns over ample supply, and the upcoming U.S. rate decision.
Key Outlook 10/12/2025
In the early hours of Thursday (Asia time), the Federal Reserve will deliver its final rate decision of the year—a pivotal event shaping year-end market direction. Markets broadly expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points. Because the rate cut has already been almost fully priced in, the Fed’s communication will be crucial. With several key U.S. economic indicators still missing and limited forward guidance available, the Fed may emphasize a cautious, wait-and-see approach. Markets have already partially priced in the possibility of a hawkish tone. Changes in the dot plot, economic projections, and inflation outlook will be key to determining the path of future rate cuts.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 09:30 CN CPI NOV **
- 22:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***
- 23:30 BoC Press Conference ***
- 23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **
Tomorrow:
- 03:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision ***
- 03:30 Fed Press Conference ***
- 08:30 AU Unemployment Rate NOV **
- 16:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision ***
- 17:00 IEA Oil Market Report **
- 21:30 US Balance of Trade SEP **
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
Markets Analysis 10/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1660/1.1682
- Support: 1.1587/1.1564
EUR/USD softened to 1.1629 amid a firmer dollar and expectations of a “hawkish” Fed rate cut. The price is slipping back toward the 1.1587 support zone, where buyers have previously defended it. A deeper dip remains possible before momentum rotates, with upside interest likely reviving only if the pair reclaims 1.1660.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3344/1.3385
- Support: 1.3252/1.3211
GBP/USD eased as firmer U.S. yields and pre-Fed caution kept the dollar supported, leaving sterling to follow broader USD flows. Price is holding above 1.3252 trendline-break support, but momentum has slowed. A sideways consolidation looks likely before buyers attempt to reclaim 1.3344, the key resistance capping upside.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 157.38/157.90
- Support: 156.12/155.70
USD/JPY pushed toward 156.80 as solid U.S. data and expectations of a “hawkish” Fed cut kept the dollar well supported, while earlier quake-driven yen strength faded quickly. Price is now hovering near a short-term peak, with a pullback into the 156.12–155.70 demand zone likely before bulls attempt another run at 157.38.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 59.19/59.69
- Support: 57.59/57.09
WTI extended its decline to around $58.25, pressured by ample supply and optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Price is hovering just above the rising trendline near $57.59 inside a broad wedge; holding this base could see a rebound toward $59.19, while a clean break lower would reopen the downside room.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4265/4296
- Support: 4163/4131
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 61.87/63.43
- Support: 58.09/56.81
Spot gold hovered around $4,210, holding its pre-FOMC bid as markets priced in an 87% chance of a 25 bp cut. Price is compressing beneath a descending trendline, with a breakout toward $4,265 possible if momentum improves, while rejection could drag gold back toward $4,163 support.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 48032/48432
- Support: 47081/46763
The Dow futures slipped 0.38% as rising 10-year Treasury yields kept risk appetite muted ahead of the Fed decision. JPMorgan’s 4.7% plunge on guidance for sharply higher 2026 expenses weighed heavily on the index. Price remains capped beneath a descending trendline, with buyers eyeing support near 47,081 for a potential rebound.
NAS100
- Resistance: 26182/26452
- Support: 25293/25018
The NAS100 edged 0.13% higher as tech outperformed the broader market ahead of the Fed. Nvidia softened on chip-export headlines, but the overall appetite for growth stocks remained steady. Price is consolidating below 25,670, with buyers eyeing 25,293 support for a potential rebound.
BTC
- Resistance: 94520/96025
- Support: 89754/88274
Bitcoin surged 5% toward $95,000 after Trump signalled the next Fed Chair may cut rates immediately, triggering a wave of short liquidations. Price is rotating inside an ascending channel, pulling back from resistance near $94,520. If buyers defend the support zone between $89,754 and $ 88,274, BTC could attempt another push toward the upper boundary.
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