Market Highlight 03/11/2025
U.S. equities ended higher on Friday, led by Amazon’s upbeat earnings forecast, though investor optimism was tempered by renewed caution from several Federal Reserve officials. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq gained 2.24%, and the Dow added 0.75%. Several Fed hawks voiced opposition to further rate cuts, citing persistent inflation risks, which boosted the U.S. Dollar Index — up 0.79% for the week.
Spot gold slipped 0.5% on Friday to $4,001.78/oz, weighed by uncertainty over whether the Fed will deliver another rate cut this year, though it still gained 3.7% monthly. Oil prices were volatile, briefly surging on reports of a potential U.S. airstrike on Venezuela before easing back after President Trump denied the news, ultimately closing slightly higher.
Key Outlook 03/11/2025
This week brings several key global events, with the Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia rate decisions in focus. Markets are also closely watching whether the U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls Report will be released on schedule. In the absence of complete data due to the government shutdown, traders will rely more heavily on other indicators to gauge labor market health. Today, global October Manufacturing PMI final readings are due, with the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI being particularly critical, as it provides crucial insight into the economic outlook amid limited data availability.
Key Data and Events Today
U.S. & Canada Daylight Saving Time Began
- 16:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final OCT **
- 17:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final OCT **
- 17:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final OCT **
- 22:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final OCT **
- 23:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI OCT ***
Tomorrow:
- 01:30 BoC Governor Macklem Speech ***
- 08:30 JP Manufacturing PMI Final OCT **
- 11:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***
- 12:30 RBA Press Conference ***
Markets Analysis 03/11/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1569/1.1591
- Support: 1.1467/1.1445
EUR/USD remained under pressure around 1.1526, as the ECB’s neutral stance contrasted with the Fed’s persistent hawkish tone, keeping policy divergence in focus and weighing on the euro. Technically, the pair continues to trade within a clear downtrend. Resistance is located near 1.1569, while sustained weakness below 1.1530 could pave the way for a move toward 1.1467.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3222/1.3248
- Support: 1.3057/1.3024
GBP/USD held near 1.3134, pressured by renewed expectations of a BoE rate cut and cautious sentiment across global markets. The pound struggled to gain traction as traders factored in slower UK growth and a more subdued policy outlook. Technically, the pair remains capped by a descending structure, with resistance around 1.3222. A sustained drop below 1.3130 could expose deeper downside toward 1.3057.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 154.77/155.20
- Support: 153.27/152.70
USD/JPY climbed to around 154.11, extending its bullish momentum as the Bank of Japan’s cautious tone diverged from the Fed’s hawkish stance. Technically, the pair continues to follow an ascending trendline, with 153.27 serving as near-term support. A sustained move above 154.50 could open the door toward 154.77, reinforcing the bullish structure.
US Crude Oil Futures (DEC)
- Resistance: 62.16/62.60
- Support: 60.78/60.36
WTI crude hovered near $60.85, supported by OPEC+’s modest output hike and Venezuelan risks. The price broke above a descending trendline, hinting at potential upside continuation. Support lies at $60.78–$60.36, while resistance is seen at around $62.16–$62.60.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4057/4089
- Support: 3919/3887
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 49.43/49.88
- Support: 47.48/47.01
Spot gold remains steady near $3,999, as traders await further cues following recent comments from the Fed. Technically, the price consolidates between $3,919 support and $4,057 resistance. A move below $3,919 could deepen losses, while a clear rise above $4,057 might trigger bullish continuation.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 47801/47988
- Support: 47210/47023
The Dow futures hovered near 47,560, extending their six-month winning streak, supported by strong corporate earnings. Technically, the index consolidates between the 47,210 support level and the 47,801 resistance level. A rebound from 47,210 could trigger another push higher toward 47,801.
NAS100
- Resistance: 26178/26292
- Support: 25686/25574
NAS100 traded near 25,858, lifted by Amazon’s strong earnings outlook despite lingering AI-related cost concerns. Technically, the index remains range-bound between the 25,686 support level and the 26,178 resistance level. A rebound from 25,686 could pave the way toward 26,178 or even 26,292, while a breakdown may test lower support levels.
BTC
- Resistance: 111352/112535
- Support: 107506/106340
Bitcoin hovered near $109,500, pressured by weak risk sentiment and fading momentum from October. The crypto fell nearly 5% in October, its first monthly loss since 2018, as investors reacted to U.S.–China trade tensions and hawkish Fed signals. Technically, BTC remains capped below the $111,352 downtrend line; a rejection here could extend the slide toward $107,506.
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