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September Begins with Key Eurozone CPI & U.S. Manufacturing PMI

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

The U.S. and Iran exchanged attacks for the first time in a month, with Trump threatening further strikes on Iran. Concerns over escalation, combined with markets digesting last Friday’s Fed Chair remarks, led to cautious trading on the final day of August: U.S. equities and gold edged lower, while crude oil rose on Middle East tensions.

Today’s focus: Multiple countries release final Manufacturing PMI readings, with particular attention on whether the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI remains in expansion (forecast 55.2, previous 55.6). Additionally, Eurozone CPI (forecast: 3.3% YoY, previous: 2.9%) and unemployment will directly influence short‑term euro pricing and September rate-hike expectations. In the U.S., JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 7.30M, previous 7.36M) is a closely watched labour supply‑demand indicator; continued declines would confirm cooling labour market conditions.

 

Global Market Review 01/09/2026

  • Amid escalating U.S.–Iran tensions, U.S. equities fell on Monday: Dow ‑0.7%, S&P 500 ‑0.33%, Nasdaq ‑0.12%.
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed August higher, ending two months of declines; Dow posted its fifth consecutive monthly gain.
  • Dollar slipped in quiet trading despite rising Treasury yields.
  • Gold fell, hovering near two‑week lows.
  • Crude oil rose as renewed conflict stoked fears of supply disruptions.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 07:00 AU Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 08:30 JP Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 09:45 CN Manufacturing PMI AUG **
  • 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 17:00 EU CPI Flash AUG ***
  • 17:00 EU Unemployment Rate JUL **
  • 21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **
  • 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI AUG ***
  • 22:00 US JOLTs Job Openings JUL ***
  • 22:00 US Construction Spending JUL **

Sep 2 (GMT+8)

  • 04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
  • 09:30 AU GDP Q2 ***
  • 10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision ***
  • 11:00 RBNZ Press Conference ***
  • 20:15 US ADP Employment Change AUG ***
  • 21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***
  • 22:00 US Factory Orders JUL **
  • 22:30 BoC Press Conference ***
  • 22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

 

Markets Analysis 01/09/2026

 

  • Resistance: 1.1670 / 1.1712
  • Support: 1.1575 / 1.1533

EUR/USD rebounded slightly as the dollar softened, with focus on Eurozone CPI. Germany’s CPI came in below expectations, but expectations for the ECB’s September hike remain intact.

Analyst View: Price regained the 20‑day MA. If CPI strengthens bets on a September hike, EUR/USD could accelerate toward initial resistance at the 10‑day MA near 1.1650.

Bias: Mild rebound

 

  • Resistance: 1.3599 / 1.3628
  • Support: 1.3504 / 1.3475

Despite rising inflation concerns from U.S.–Iran tensions, sterling ended a three‑day decline, rebounding near 1.3550.

Analyst View: Attempting to reclaim the 20‑day MA. A successful break could ease downside pressure and target the 10‑day MA near 1.3600.

Bias: Mild rebound

 

  • Resistance: 160.19 / 160.46
  • Support: 159.32 / 159.11

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Japan’s government and BoJ are expected to act to strengthen the yen, hinting at a possible September hike.

Analyst View: USDJPY retreated from late‑July highs, now testing support near 159.30–159.10.

Bias: Pullback

 

  • Resistance: 87.69 / 88.63
  • Support: 84.62 / 83.67

Renewed U.S.–Iran clashes raised supply concerns. Crude opened higher on Monday, closing above $86.

Analyst View: Closed at one‑week highs above 10‑day MA. Short‑term upside momentum intact, but resistance at $87.69 (August high) is key.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

 

  • Resistance: 4511 / 4555
  • Support: 4380 / 4324

 

  • Resistance: 67.87 / 69.13
  • Support: 64.82 / 63.82

Gold remained weak on Monday amid Middle East tensions, inflation worries, and digestion of Warsh’s hawkish remarks.

Analyst View: After hitting lows since August 19, gold recovered late, back near the 20‑day MA. Bulls may attempt a rebound; holding above $4500 would signal escape from lows.

Bias: Attempted rebound

 

  • Resistance: 53,529 / 53,998
  • Support: 52,773 / 52,394

Dow fell on Monday amid risk aversion due to U.S.–Iran tensions and higher oil and yields, though the monthly gain extended to five.

Analyst View: Broke below 10‑day MA. Sustained pressure could see bears push below 53,000, eyes on US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

 

  • Resistance: 29,653 / 29,756
  • Support: 29,313 / 29,209

Tech stocks mixed on Monday; Nasdaq Index dipped intraday to three‑day lows before recovering.

Analyst View: Holding near 10‑day MA around 29,400. The 20‑day MA above acts as resistance, reinforcing the consolidation bias.

Bias: Range consolidation

 

  • Resistance: 80,071 / 80,775
  • Support: 77,138 / 76,458

Bitcoin traded below recent highs, rising slightly on Monday as markets digested the Fed’s hawkishness, rate-hike expectations, and geopolitical tensions.

Analyst View: Attempting to reclaim 10‑day MA. Breakout could retest last week’s highs, but resistance above $80,000 remains critical.

Bias: Mild rebound

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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