Gold rose above $4,100 an ounce in early Asian trading on Friday after a weaker than expected U.S. jobs report cooled expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. Spot gold (XAU/USD) traded near $4,125 after the data showed June payrolls grew by 57,000, roughly half the market forecast.
XAU/USD – 5 Days Chart
Market Snapshot
The move extended a rebound in bullion after a volatile second quarter, when gold retreated from record highs as traders priced in stickier inflation and a more cautious Federal Reserve.
The dollar weakened and Treasury yields slipped after the payrolls release, improving the appeal of non-yielding gold. Front-month Comex gold had settled 1.1% higher on Wednesday at $4,068.30 an ounce before the latest leg higher.
Jobs Data
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June. Economists had expected about 110,000 to 115,000 new jobs.
April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.2% from 4.3%, but the labour force participation rate fell to 61.5%, pointing to softer underlying labour supply.
Fed Implications
The data landed two weeks after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% and said inflation remained elevated relative to its 2% goal. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for July 28-29.
“The lower-than-expected jobs number portends to less likelihood of potential rate hikes later this year,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, in D-day commentary. Gold tends to perform better when rate expectations fall, he added.
Broader Context
Gold’s latest rally comes after a sharp pullback from January’s peak above $5,000, driven by shifting rate expectations, dollar strength and profit-taking after a strong 2025 advance.
Geopolitical risk has also stayed in focus. The United States and Iran concluded indirect talks on Wednesday without clear progress towards a lasting settlement, keeping attention on Middle East energy risks and inflation pressure.
Outlook
Traders will watch whether gold can hold above $4,100 and challenge resistance near $4,150. The next catalysts are U.S. inflation data, Fed commentary before the July meeting, and any renewed signs of stress in Middle East diplomacy.
