纳指创新高，美元逼近18个月高位；油金小幅回落 | ATFX

要点：

美国股市延续涨势，投资者继续消化上周五疲弱的就业数据，纳斯达克指数收于纪录高位。
美元走强，欧元跌至17个月低点；
与此同时，有报道称尽管中东地区冲突持续，但区域原油出口仍在增加，推动油价下跌。
黄金小幅回落，但仍守在关键支撑位上方。

今日关注：今日经济日历依然相对清淡。亚洲时段尾盘，日元交易者将重点关注日本央行行长植田和男的讲话；整体市场走势预计仍将主要受到最新地缘政治消息影响。欧元区零售销售数据将左右欧元区的需求前景，紧随其后的是对美元走势较为敏感的美国贸易帐数据。隔夜公布的API和EIA原油库存报告可能推动WTI原油价格的走势，而将于10月8日发布的美联储会议纪要，或将进一步明确决策者是倾向于控制通胀，还是侧重于应对增长风险。

全球市场回顾

美股收高，道琼斯指数上涨0.18%至51,267点，标普500指数上涨0.66%至7,773点，纳斯达克指数上涨1.05%至27,477点。
美元指数上涨0.20%至102.13；
美国2年期国债收益率下降1.3个基点至4.812%，10年期国债收益率上升3.0个基点至5.303%。
布伦特原油下跌2.07%至100.12美元，WTI原油下跌2.14%至89.16美元；
黄金小幅下跌0.05%至4,140.11美元。

财经日历

10月6日（GMT+8）重要事件

中国假期

时间 (GMT+8)	事件	重要性
14:35	日本央行行长植田和男发表讲话	**
17:00	欧元区8月零售销售月率	**
20:30	美国8月贸易帐	**

10月7日（GMT+8）重要事件

中国假期

时间 (GMT+8)	事件	重要性
04:30	美国API原油库存变化	**
14:00	德国8月工业产出月率	**
22:30	美国EIA原油库存变化	***
23:00	美国纽约联储9月一年期消费者通胀预期	**

【20261006 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

阻力：1.1271/1.1313

支撑：1.1176/1.1134

分析师观点：法国财政问题引发市场担忧，推动欧元跌至近17个月低点后，EUR/USD目前在1.1176上方企稳，但4小时级别整体结构仍偏空。若反弹突破1.1271/1.1313，则有望形成更明显的修复；若跌破1.1176，则可能进一步下探1.1134。

方向：偏空，关注关键支撑能否守稳

英镑兑美元

阻力：1.3274/1.3334

支撑：1.3179/1.3118

分析师观点：在美元需求走强的背景下，GBP/USD仍处于下降结构中，但市场对英国央行偏鹰派政策的预期一定程度上限制了英镑跌幅。若跌破1.3179，则可能进一步下探1.3118；若重新站上1.3274，则短线下行压力有望缓解。

方向：谨慎偏空，阻力位仍是反弹关键

美元兑日元

阻力：158.34/158.65

支撑：157.40/157.01

分析师观点：美日收益率差持续为美元提供支撑，USD/JPY目前在158附近震荡整理。若突破158.34/158.65，则涨势有望进一步延续；若无法守住157.40，则市场焦点将转向157.01。

方向：温和偏多，关注能否突破阻力区

美国原油期货（10月）

阻力：90.82/91.78

支撑：87.75/86.78

分析师观点：有报道称中东地区原油出口增加，推动WTI下跌约2.1%至89.16美元，目前整体仍处于下行趋势。若重新站上91.78，则短线压力有望缓解；若跌破87.75，则跌势可能进一步延续。

方向：偏空，关注87.75能否守稳

现货黄金

阻力：4189/4214

支撑：4135/4111

现货白银

阻力：61.75/62.39

支撑：60.31/59.68

分析师观点：美国国债收益率维持高位，加上美元走强，抵消了市场对美联储加息预期降温带来的利好，黄金小幅回落至4,140美元附近，但仍守在关键支撑上方。若跌破4,135，则可能进一步下探4,111。白银则继续在阻力位下方维持弱势，若跌破60.31，则可能进一步下探59.68。

方向：黄金中性至谨慎偏空；白银谨慎偏空

美国道琼斯工业指数 US30

阻力：51657/51915

支撑：51080/50818

分析师观点：道指目前在51,080上方企稳，但仍位于下降阻力线之下。若突破51,657/51,915，则反弹动能有望增强；若跌破51,080，则50,818将重新成为市场关注的支撑位置。

方向：温和反弹，关注能否重新突破阻力区

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

阻力：31251/31337

支撑：30974/30887

分析师观点：科技股继续领涨，纳斯达克综合指数收于纪录高位，推动NAS100在30,974/30,887上方维持偏强结构。若突破31,251，则有望进一步测试31,337；若跌破支撑区，则可能出现短线回调。

方向：偏多，关注能否突破上方阻力

香港恒生指数HK50

阻力：24510/24694

支撑：24098/23911

分析师观点：HK50自23,730附近展开技术性反弹，但目前仍位于下降阻力结构下方。指数正在测试24,000点上方区域，其中24,510/24,694构成下一主要阻力区。若能守住24,098，则反弹走势有望延续；若跌破23,911，则当前修复动能可能减弱。

方向：短线反弹，但整体结构仍保持谨慎

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。

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