美债息和油价齐升施压美股，市场聚焦中美元首会晤 | ATFX

要点

美国股市周三收低，受累于美国公债收益率和油价攀升以及美联储加息预期继续上升。
美国商业活动在九月连续第四个月加速，衡量企业投入成本的指标跃升至近四年来最高，表明通胀压力不断加剧，市场押注美联储将在10月底连续第二次收紧政策。

今日关注：今日关注中美元首预计将进行会晤，据报道，美国财长表示，中美将贸易休战期延长至1月10日。若领导人会晤释放稳定信号，将利好股市风险偏好，缓解经济以及企业关税的不确定性。瑞士央行利率决议：市场预期维持利率不变，关注最新政策指引。

全球市场回顾

隔夜美股三大指数集体走低，道指收跌0.68%，标普500指数跌0.75%，纳指跌1.1%。
美元升至近两个月最高水平，投资者对美联储近期加息的预期增强，美国国债收益率攀升。
金价下挫逾1%，跌至近一周低点；
WTI原油反弹3%，因伊朗官员称伊美和平谈判分歧仍大。

重要财经日历

时间 (GMT+8)	事件	重要性
	中美元首会晤	***
08:30	日本9月制造业PMI初值	**
09:30	澳大利亚8月失业率	**
15:30	瑞士央行利率决议	***
16:00	德国9月Ifo商业景气指数	**
20:30	美国初请失业金人数	***
20:30	美国8月营建许可	**
22:00	美国8月新屋销售	**

9月25日（GMT+8）重要事件

时间 (GMT+8)	事件	重要性
14:00	德国10月GfK消费者信心指数	**
20:30	美国8月耐用品订单	**
22:00	美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值	***

【20260924 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1412/1.1435阻力
1.1342/1.1312支持

受美联储加息预期增强的影响，欧元兑美元走低，跌破1.1400关口，尽管欧元区最新PMI整体表现积极，其中综合PMI触及三年高位。

分析师观点：欧元兑美元昨日加速下跌，录得一周来的最大跌幅，继续刷新7月下旬以来的最低，1.1400关口转为阻力，当前留意7月低点在1.1350附近是否能提供关键支撑。

方向：承压

英镑兑美元

1.3274/1.3333阻力
1.3179/1.3119支持

昨日相比于美国PMI的表现，英国部分PMI数据稍显逊色，美联储加息预期间接施压英镑，汇价跌至七月初以来的最低点。

分析师观点：汇价昨日录得三个月以来的最大跌幅，当前在低位继续承压，面临向更低水平的1.3200关口下方发起测试的压力。

方向：承压

美元兑日元

158.42/159.29阻力
157.53/156.65支持

随着美联储加息预期升温，美元兑日元昨日录得四日连涨，创月初以来的高位，正式突破158关口。

分析师观点：汇价突破上周高位，显示多头在稍作休整后重新发力，但今早部分回吐，表明多空短线可能在158关口附近交战。整体仍处于上行通道内，因此保持温和看涨。

方向：温和看涨

美国原油期货（10月）

93.54/95.66阻力
88.78/86.69支持

国际油价昨日止步五连跌，伊朗表示只要针对伊朗的制裁措施依然存在，霍尔木兹海峡将继续保持关闭状态。

分析师观点：原油价格昨日自9月初以来首次反弹，当前面临20日均线的阻力。若能突破，则有望回到93美元上方；若遇阻，则留意在低位区间整理。

方向：反弹或受限

现货黄金

4317/4337阻力
4278/4259支持

现货白银

64.92/65.54阻力
63.67/63.07支持

美国经济数据积极，加上美联储政策制定者的鹰派言论，推高了加息预期；随着美元、美债收益率及油价上涨，黄金隔夜跌超1%。

分析师观点：黄金隔夜震荡回吐，连续录得更低的高点，显示下行压力仍稍占主导，昨日测试20日均线无果而加大下行并跌破10日均线，所以视线再次聚焦上周低位，目前先关注4278/4259美元的支撑，并聚焦中美会晤的指引。

方向：承压

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

52037/52407阻力
51194/50811支持

美国最新PMI重燃10月加息预期至近70%，加上美债收益率和原油价格上涨，美股三大股指周三集体下跌，道指录得两日连跌。

分析师观点：道指昨日继续上试10日均线阻力，但未能突破，加剧了短线调整压力。当前继续关注上周低点在51200下方的支撑。

方向：承压

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

30565/30803阻力
30319/30020支持

油价上涨与强劲经济数据的双重夹击，令市场对美联储将维持更长时间紧缩立场的押注升温，纳指隔夜止步连涨，自纪录高位回落。

分析师观点：纳指回落，但未大幅脱离历史高位；若果日内中美会晤营造积极的氛围，则有望重启向高位的反弹。

方向：短线调整

香港恒生指数HK50

24877/25051阻力
24485/24314支持

港股昨日回吐253点失守两万五关口后，今早仍面临压力，恒指低开逾百点。HK50指数昨日止步连涨，从两周高位回落。

分析师观点：HK50指数昨日在20日均线上方遇阻后掉头调整，当前下破10日均线，因此短线转为承压，重新关注上周低点在24314附近的关键支撑。

方向：短线调整

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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