面对人工智能风险警告，美联储决议前美股加剧滑落 | ATFX

要点

大型AI公司负责人就AI潜在风险发出的警告打击整体风险情绪，加上中东冲突持续推高油价，昨日美股震荡回落，黄金也因为市场为美联储本周加息的可能性做准备而跌至逾一个月低位，美元则全线上涨。

今日关注：关注英国7月ILO三个月失业率（预测4.9%，前值5%）英国劳动力市场韧性将直接影响次日CPI的市场定价，也将影响本周晚些时候的英国央行决议。欧元区ZEW指数若持续下滑，将加剧对欧洲经济复苏乏力的担忧。

全球市场回顾

道指收跌0.29%，标普500指数跌0.48%，纳指跌0.56%。
美元跟随美债收益率上涨，金价下跌1.1%至逾一个月最低。
油价上涨，也门亲伊朗的胡塞武装周一再次袭击沙特阿拉伯，海湾阿拉伯国家则推迟原定与伊朗举行的会谈，加剧了外界对中东冲突进一步蔓延并威胁全球石油供应的担忧。

重要财经日历

时间 (GMT+8)	事件	重要性
10:00	中国8月规模以上工业增加值及社会消费品零售年率	**
14:00	英国7月失业率	**
17:00	欧元区9月ZEW经济景气指数	**
20:30	美国9月纽约联储制造业指数	**

9月16日（GMT+8）重要事件

时间 (GMT+8)	事件	重要性
04:30	美国API原油库存变动	***
14:00	英国8月CPI及PPI	***
17:00	欧元区7月工业产出	**
20:30	美国8月零售销售	***
22:30	美国EIA原油库存变动	**

【20260915 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1567/1.1580阻力
1.1523/1.1513支持

由于交易员加大对本周美联储鹰派立场押注，美元全线走高，欧元/美元走弱至一个月低点，尽管市场对欧央行10月继续加息的预期也在上升。

分析师观点：欧元兑美元昨日录得三日连跌，也是两周来最大跌幅。当前交投在1.1550下方，进入8月上旬区间，面临测试并继续指向1.1500关口的压力。

方向：承压

英镑兑美元

1.3528/1.3551阻力
1.3451/1.3427支持

周一随着美元走高，英镑兑美元收盘略低于1.3500，此前一度触及8月上旬以来的最低点，继续等待本周美联储和英国央行的决议。

分析师观点：汇价昨日下破10日均线，自上周高位以来的下行通道进一步扩大，加剧短线下行压力，关注下方1.3451/1.3427支撑。

方向：承压

美元兑日元

155.28/155.73阻力
154.36/153.80支持

昨日美元兑日元跟随美元走强，盘中触及一周高位后，周二亚洲早盘延续走强，等待美联储和日央行本周可能宣布加息的决定。

分析师观点：虽然昨日反弹，但汇价昨日盘中高位停留在155关口，且该位也是10日均线所在附近，所以可能对进一步反弹构成初步限制，未能突破的情况下，将继续维持在低位区间。

方向：低位区间整理

美国原油期货（10月）

105.43/107.71阻力
100.95/98.06支持

因沙特阿拉伯能源基础设施再次遭袭以及中东地区船只遇袭事件，令市场对能源供应的担忧加剧，昨日WTI原油再度突破100美元。

分析师观点：原油价格昨日尾盘缩减涨幅，多头尝试刷新高位，但未能守住，显示动能有所缓和，预计将继续维持高位区间交投。

方向：高位运行

现货黄金

4316/4343阻力
4256/4229支持

现货白银

64.61/65.20阻力
62.09/61.33支持

受美元升至接近两周高点和油价高企的拖累，昨日现货黄金低开低走，失守4300美元关口，并跌至8月上旬以来最低。

分析师观点：当前金价处于4300美元附近盘整，在美联储可能加息前的谨慎情绪中，可能继续将金价困在近期下行通道内，但需关注通道底部趋势线能否提供支撑。

方向：承压

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

52704/52871阻力
52269/52140支持

昨日美股三大指数走低，工业、基础材料和公用事业板块的下跌拖累道指走势，道指低开后尝试反弹，但未能守住升幅。

分析师观点：在美联储决议公布前夕，预计道指将继续维持在10日均线及上周低位区间内交投，目前先关注52269/52140支撑。

方向：偏空

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

29307/29408阻力
29005/28878支持

美国股市周一受累于芯片制造商的下跌，此前美国多家AI公司高管对安全问题表示担忧，并呼吁放缓AI发展步伐，纳指一度跌至8月以来低位后收复部分失地。

分析师观点：纳指昨日下破上周低点，下行通道扩张意味着下行压力增加，但市场转入对美联储决议公布前夕的谨慎观望，可能部分缓和压力。

方向：偏空

香港恒生指数HK50

25053/25202阻力
24662/24546支持

港股延续昨日反弹111点的势头，今早高开16点。但外围AI警告也触发AI相关股份抛售，科网股今早开盘表现不一。

分析师观点：HK50指数昨日震荡反弹，但今早未能延续涨幅。只要价格仍维持在10日均线下方，就难以脱离近期低位区间。

方向：反弹遇阻

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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