全球债券突遭抛售，聚焦两大央行决议及美国小非农 | ATFX

要点

* 美国对伊朗目标发动新一轮空袭，美伊冲突升级加剧石油供应忧虑。昨日全球债券遭抛售，美股和黄金延续下行，原油价格加速反弹。

* 今日关注：新西兰联储与加拿大央行接连公布利率决议，今早新西兰联储如预期加息25个基点；加拿大央行继续在国内经济放缓与通胀压力之间的权衡，预计维持利率不变。美国方面，ADP就业数据（预计4.8万，前值4.4万），将提前为周五的官方非农数据预热。次日凌晨关注美联储褐皮书，最新通胀形势、就业及薪资增长、消费弹性状况，是评估美联储后续利率路径的重要参考。

全球市场回顾：

美国股市周二延续跌势，道指收跌0.79%，标普500指数跌0.7%，纳指跌1.03%。
美国国债收益率全线上涨，美元走强，美伊冲突再度升级推高油价，加剧通胀担忧并引发全球债券抛售。
黄金下跌近3%，触及两周低位，受累于美国公债收益率高企和美元走强。
美伊之间再次爆发冲突，原油价格大幅上涨逾4%。

重要财经日历

09:30 澳大利亚第二季度GDP ***
10:00 新西兰储备银行利率决议 ***
11:00 新西兰储备银行新闻发布会 ***
20:15 美国8月ADP就业人数变化 ***
21:45 加拿大央行利率决议 ***
22:00 美国7月工厂订单 **
22:30 加拿大央行新闻发布会 ***
22:30 EIA原油库存变化 **

Sep 3 (GMT+8)

02:00 美联储褐皮书 ***
07:00 澳大利亚8月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
08:30 日本8月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
09:45 中国8月服务业及综合PMI **
15:55 德国8月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
16:00 欧元区8月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
16:30 英国8月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
17:00 欧元区7月PPI环比 **
20:30 美国7月贸易帐 **
20:30 美国首次申请失业救济人数 ***
21:45 美国8月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
22:00 美国8月ISM服务业PMI ***

【20260902 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1626/1.1669阻力
1.1532/1.1490支持

受地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及美伊冲突升级的影响，欧元兑美元昨日走低，回吐前一日的涨幅，今早仍维持在两周低位区间，尽管欧元区8月CPI升至三年新高。

分析师观点：汇价昨日收于低于20日均线所在的1.1600关口，意味着打开更低的下行空间，进入8月上旬的盘整区间。

方向：承压

英镑兑美元

1.3552/1.3575阻力
1.3475/1.3451支持

受债券收益率上升和油价飙升的推动，人们再次对持续通胀和潜在加息的担忧，美元走强施压英镑/美元跌至8月中旬以来最低。

分析师观点：汇价下破20日均线，意味着对1.3500关口下方的区间构成威胁，留意是否会指向1.3475/1.3451。

方向：承压

美元兑日元

160.66/160.86阻力
160.19/159.98支持

日本央行行长拒绝对市场对9月加息可能性的概率置评，但市场依然预期9月行动的可能性。美元/日元今早盘整在7月31日以来最高水平附近。

分析师观点：汇价昨日站上160关口，多头小幅刷新高位。日内若站稳160关口之上，目标将进一步指向160.66/160.86。

方向：温和反弹

美国原油期货（10月）

93.62/94.55阻力
89.59/88.63支持

美伊冲突升级。由于市场对全球供应中断的担忧加剧，原油大涨超4%，触及90美元，为6月以来首次，并于今早继续刷新7月24日以来的高位。

分析师观点：原油价格在扩大连涨后，目前逼近7月高位，因此聚焦其是否会在前期高位附近93.50美元遇阻。

方向：高位谨慎

现货黄金

4380/4423阻力
4236/4180支持

现货白银

65.84/66.86阻力
62.54/61.54支持

中东局势紧张加剧了通胀担忧，并引发了全球债券抛售。受美国国债收益率高企和美元走强的打压，现货黄金震荡下行，昨日刷新近两周低点后，今早录得8月7日以来最低。

分析师观点：金价昨日正式跌破20日均线，为7月底以来首次，今早顺势打开测试4300美元关口的空间，短线跌势可能跟进，需要看美国ADP就业人数的指引。

方向：承压

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

53151/53529阻力
52394/52022支持

美国再次打击伊朗，油价大涨和国债收益率上升，拖累周二美股市场在9月的开局表现，三大指数集体下跌。

分析师观点：道指录得连跌后，当前交投在8月20日的低位附近。日内是否跌破该位将决定短线跌势是否加深，并指向7月底低位区间，聚焦美国ADP就业数据指引。

方向：关注前低

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

29209/29313阻力
28870/28768支持

昨日受到市场恐慌情绪拖累，纳指在三大指数中领跌，大型科技股多数下跌，半导体、存储板块也集体向下。

分析师观点：纳指昨日低开低走，下破日图主要均线，同样向8月低位靠近，因此聚焦28870附近，看前期低位能否为跌势提供一定缓和，并关注美国就业数据。

方向：关注前低

香港恒生指数HK50

25317/25436阻力
24933/24812支持

港股在昨日9月开局跌237点后，今早再低开48点，科网股表现不一，资源股及黄金股跟随黄金价格走弱。

分析师观点：HK50指数昨日录得两连跌后，今早跌势延续，测试8月中旬低位所在的25000关口。该位作为关键支撑，若跌破，将助长空头动能，开启更低区间。

方向：承压

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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