今晚美国PCE物价出炉，英伟达财报定调美股 | ATFX

要点

* 伊朗表示，已恢复与邻国阿曼的谈判，以协商如何管理霍尔木兹海峡。昨日市场风险偏好有所回升，但整体在今日美国公布PCE物价数据之前仍保持相对谨慎。

* 今日关注：美国集中公布GDP修正值、PCE物价指数，将共同验证美国经济降温与通胀放缓的真实进程。PCE通胀指标，将直接影响市场对美联储后续利率路径的定价，预计核心PCE物价指数年率维持在3.3%；GDP年化季率修正值预计维持在1.5%。美股市场还将重点关注美股盘后英伟达公布业绩，将指引科技股乃至整个美股的走向。

全球市场回顾：

美国华尔街主要股指周二收高，科技股在英伟达公布财报前从跌势中反弹。道指收涨0.3%，标普500指数涨0.32%，纳指涨0.66%。美元指数微跌，金价继续刷新逾三个月高点后持稳，尾盘变化不大。原油延续跌势，市场对美国最新一轮针对伊朗的制裁行动反应平淡，认为经济施压对石油供应构成的风险低于军事冲突升级。

重要财经日历

英伟达公布业绩 ***

09:30 澳大利亚7月CPI **
20:30 美国第二季度GDP修正值 ***
20:30 美国7月核心PCE物价指数 ***
20:30 美国7月耐用品订单 **
22:30 EIA原油库存变动 **

8月27日（GMT+8）

杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 ***

14:00 德国9月GfK消费者信心指数 **
20:30 美国初请失业金人数 ***
22:00 美国8月堪萨斯联储制造业指数 **

【20260826 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1693/1.1737阻力
1.1657/1.1623支持

昨日在美元走弱带动下，欧元兑美元自四日低位回升并小幅收高后，周三早盘交投在1.1670附近，等待美国PCE物价指数指引。

分析师观点：汇价昨日反弹继续守在近期高位区间内，日内美国通胀数据或将决定会否打破区间模式，如果向下则留意打开1.1650下方空间，但如果延续反弹则有望向1.1700关口上方发起测试。

方向：区间观望

英镑兑美元

1.3668/1.3701阻力
1.3626/1.3591支持

昨日英镑兑美元扩大反弹，连续五日上涨，并继续维持在近期的高位区间内。由于本周英国数据指引有限，因此聚焦今晚美国关键数据带来的间接指引。

分析师观点：汇价继续维持偏多动能，不过1.3655连续两日充当阻力，暂时阻碍反弹，如果美国PCE物价降温，将间接利好英镑扩大上涨。

方向：区间观望

美元兑日元

159.32/159.52阻力
158.91/158.70支持

美元兑日元昨日向着四日高位反弹，但尾盘回吐大部分涨幅，仍维持在159关口上方，继续呈现观望的势头。

分析师观点：汇价昨日尾盘仍回到了日图主要均线处盘整，显示多头动能温和，日内需要聚焦美国关键数据指引，看能否推动有效突破关键均线。

方向：区间观望

美国原油期货（10月）

82.10/83.00阻力
78.30/77.17支持

投资者认为美国对伊朗采取制裁措施而非加剧敌对行动释放了积极信号，且伊朗和阿曼推动就霍尔木兹海峡“临时”重新开放进行谈判，原油加大回落，但尾盘勉强守住80美元关口，

分析师观点：原油价格昨日加大回撤至两周低位，下破日图主要均线后，短线空头动能占优，但如果能继续守在80美元关口之上，则有望缓和下行压力。

方向：承压

现货黄金

4707/4758阻力
4603/4553支持

现货白银

69.43/69.93阻力
67.80/67.29支持

得益于美元走弱以及油债和国债收益率下降，昨日黄金一度逼近4700美元大关，但未能突破。市场在美国公布关键通胀数据后选择观望。

分析师观点：黄金在关键数据公布前，多头动能稍缓；今晚美国数据将决定金价是继续扩大反弹，还是触发阶段性调整。

方向：多头暂缓

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

53996/54379阻力
53155/52779支持

昨日三大股指普涨，美债收益率延续前一日跌势，油价回落也为市场带来一定喘息空间，道指上涨逾160点。

分析师观点：道指连续扩大反弹后来到一周高位处，正好停留在上周相对高位的53700上方，如果PCE物价指数放缓则有望带动道指尝试突破，但如果数据超预期，道指可能在阻力位掉头。

方向：温和看涨

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

29288/29418阻力
28857/28689支持

昨日纳指反弹，受益于科技股的反弹以及油价和国债收益率的下跌，在关键通胀数据和英伟达业绩公布前，市场走势偏谨慎。

分析师观点：纳指昨日高开后尾盘守住了部分涨幅，但仍回到20日均线下方。日内美国数据将决定是否突破该关键阻力，还是回到本周低位。

方向：反弹较弱

香港恒生指数HK50

25795/25912阻力
25436/25289支持

昨日港股表现反复，最终尾盘收低6点后，今早高开逾百点，科网股普遍高开。HK50指数昨日自四日低位反弹，收于高位。

分析师观点：HK50指数今早延续昨日的反弹势头，只要维持在主要均线上方，短线走势偏向积极，但需要留意上周高位范围的阻力。

方向：温和看涨

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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