中东紧张局势持续升级，日内部分聚焦欧央行决议 | ATFX

要点

* 美国与伊朗敌对行动持续升级，特朗普威胁打击伊朗基础设施，而伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装威胁航运，供应担忧进一步推升油价，黄金则在技术买盘的提振下延续反弹，美元小幅回落提供支撑；美股在观望关键科技巨头业绩前小幅向下。

* 今晚欧央行决议预计将维持利率不变，欧元区通胀已回落，但最新美伊局势再次推高当前的能源价格，看欧央行是否会强调通胀的不确定性。拉加德的新闻发布会表态——尤其是对9月会议的暗示，将是市场解读的关键。

全球市场回顾：

美国股市周三收低，交易员在关键巨头公布业绩前谨慎观望，与此同时，在中东冲突可能加剧的情况下，油价持续上涨带来通胀忧虑。道指收跌0.01%，标普500指数跌0.14%，纳指跌0.57%。金价触及两周高位，收盘上涨1.3%，受美元小幅走软和技术性买盘提振，尽管美国国债收益率徘徊在数月高点；美国与伊朗敌对行动持续升级，油价收于6月11日以来最高水平。

重要财经日历

09:30 澳大利亚6月失业率 **
20:15 欧洲央行利率决议 ***
20:30 美国首次申请失业救济人数 ***
20:45 欧洲央行新闻发布会 ***

7月24日（GMT+8）

07:00 澳大利亚 7月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 **
07:30 日本6月核心CPI **
08:30 日本7月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 **
14:00 英国6月零售销售 **
15:55 德国7月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 **
16:00 欧元区7月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 **
16:30 英国7月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 **
20:00 美国6月营建许可 **
21:45 美国7月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 ***
22:00 美国6月新屋销售 **

【20260723 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1437/1.1454阻力
1.1394/1.1380支持

欧元兑美元昨日主要在1.1400上方盘整，止步四日连跌，但中东地缘政治紧张局势升级限制了该货币对的上涨空间，并等待日内欧央行决议。

分析师观点：汇价今早测试日图主要均线在1.1420附近的阻力，如果欧央行暗示9月仍有加息空间，则汇价有望突破关键阻力，但如果欧央行强调观望，则汇价可能维持低位区间徘徊。

方向：在温和反弹中观望

英镑兑美元

1.3460/1.3510阻力
1.3349/1.3300支持

昨日英镑兑美元维持在1.3400下方交投，英国6月CPI低于市场预期，与此同时，投资者密切关注中东局势的发展。

分析师观点：汇价昨日下试20日均线创逾一周低位但是暂时守住该均线支撑，看能否配合关键支撑反弹重返1.3400上方，否则将指向1.3350下方。

方向：短线偏空

美元兑日元

163.39/163.75阻力
162.84/162.49支持

周三日元从近40年来低点反弹，交易员正在权衡东京方面干预汇市以及日本央行加快加息的可能性，不过美元兑日元仍维持在163关口上方。

分析师观点：昨日美元兑日元一度回落至162.66后拉升收复大部分失地，所以多头仍会继续在高位区间进行试探。

方向：区间盘整

美国原油期货（9月）

89.22/90.50阻力
86.29/84.99支持

随着中东冲突威胁石油运输路线，供应担忧加剧，原油价格延续上涨，昨日盘中一度突破89美元，收稳在6月11日以来的最高点。

分析师观点：今早油价高开在昨日最高点附近，当前徘徊在88美元，如果日内局势冲突升级消息继续带动油价升势，则90美元关口可能成为目标。

方向：短线看涨

现货黄金

4167/4203阻力
4110/4080支持

现货白银

60.73/61.43阻力
58.44/57.74支持

交易员权衡中东风险和美联储前景，黄金连续第四个交易日上涨，稳守4100美元上方，随着持续的地缘政治不确定性持续支撑避险需求带动技术性买盘，贵金属持续回升。

分析师观点：黄金连涨后进一步向7月6日的高位范围靠近，4200美元附近将成为关键阻力所在，所以需要留意多头动能是否放缓。

方向：温和看涨

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

52831/53070阻力
52068/51833支持

昨日受美伊地缘政治冲突升级及全球经济下行风险担忧影响，美股三大指数微跌，市场避险情绪升温，道指自三日高位回落。

分析师观点：道指昨日上测日图主要均线上方但是未能突破，在继续受困的情况下可能回到低位区间徘徊。

方向：低位区间盘整

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

29236/29429阻力
28848/28608支持

科技股表现分化，英伟达与博通领涨，但SpaceX因做空头寸激增股价重挫，投资者等待关键财报出炉。盘后Alphabet公布财报，2026年资本支出计划拖累盘后股价下跌。

分析师观点：纳指昨日未能延续上涨，继续被拒在10日均线下方，上行动能不足的情况下日内继续关注英特尔业绩指引。

方向：反弹遇阻

香港恒生指数HK50

25330/25634阻力
24662/24369支持

港股昨日收跌239点、失守两万五关口后，今早有所回稳，高开73点，科网股个别发展，HK50指数昨日整体波动减缓的同时尾盘变化不大。

分析师观点：技术上价格显示高位盘整，如果日内重新收高，即便升势温和也足以维持多头在相对高位区间内再续动能。

方向：温和看涨

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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