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U.S.–Iran Conflict Rekindles Concerns, Fed Minutes Reinforce Hawkish Tone?

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

According to Reuters, three oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. military to launch new airstrikes against Iran on Tuesday and revoke Iran’s oil export waivers. The latest developments have shaken confidence in the fragile ceasefire agreement.

Today’s focus: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25 bps to 2.5%, its first hike in more than three years, while signaling the possibility of further increases. Early Thursday (GMT+8), attention turns to the Fed’s June meeting minutes for guidance on monetary policy outlook and whether they reinforce a hawkish stance.

 

Global Market Review 08/07/2026

U.S. equities fell Tuesday, led by weakness in semiconductor stocks. Micron and other chipmakers dropped, deepening doubts about the sustainability of Wall Street’s AI‑driven rally. The Dow fell 0.25%, S&P 500 lost 0.45%, and Nasdaq dropped 1.16%.

U.S. Treasury yields rose, while the dollar firmed slightly after several days of declines, supported by Middle East tensions. Gold fell 1.4% as investors focused on escalating hostilities in the region. Oil surged more than 5% on renewed supply concerns.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision ***
  • 11:00 RBNZ Press Conference ***
  • 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

July 9（GMT+8）

  • 02:00 FOMC Minutes ***
  • 09:30 CN CPI & PPI JUN **
  • 19:30 ECB Minutes ***
  • 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
  • 22:00 US Existing Home Sales JUN **

 

Markets Analysis 08/07/2026

20260708 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1438 / 1.1456
  • Support: 1.1382 / 1.1364

EUR/USD weakened Tuesday, retreating to 1.1410 as Middle East tensions lifted dollar demand.

Analyst View: Testing below the 10‑day MA this morning; a close lower would confirm short‑term correction toward sub‑1.1400 levels. Watch 1.1382/1.1364 support and Fed minutes guidance.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 1.3414 / 1.3461
  • Support: 1.3302 / 1.3264

Sterling ended its eight‑day rally Tuesday, slipping below 1.3370 after briefly testing 1.3400.

Analyst View: Retreat from mid‑June highs; 10‑ and 20‑day MAs near 1.3300 act as key support. Focus on U.S.–Iran tensions and Fed minutes.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 162.84 / 163.11
  • Support: 161.94 / 161.66

USD/JPY held near 162.00 Tuesday, with yen still at 40‑year lows. Traders remain alert to possible Japanese intervention.

Analyst View: Dollar demand lifted the pair higher this morning, targeting last week’s highs. Momentum remains cautious at elevated levels.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260708 US Crude Oil Futures (AUG) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 73.92 / 75.23
  • Support: 69.68 / 68.34

Oil surged Tuesday after U.S. strikes on Iran and the revocation of oil waivers reignited concerns over the ceasefire.

Analyst View: Prices broke above the 10‑day MA, improving short‑term signals. Without fresh escalation, upside momentum may be capped near the 20‑day MA.

Bias: Short‑term rebound

  • Resistance: 4148 / 4180
  • Support: 4049 / 4008

  • Resistance: 61.35 / 62.72
  • Support: 58.30 / 56.91

Gold fell for a second day Tuesday, pressured by rising yields and a stronger dollar. Silver dropped below $60.

Analyst View: Gold is under pressure from geopolitics and technicals, testing support near $4,080. Less hawkish Fed minutes could help stabilize prices.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 53,410 / 53,612
  • Support: 52,536 / 52,337

U.S. equities fell Tuesday as oil‑driven inflation fears weighed. The Dow retreated after briefly hitting new highs, ending its five‑day rally.

Analyst View: Back below 53,000 but still elevated. Fed minutes will be key; a less hawkish tone could cushion downside.

Bias: High‑level consolidation

  • Resistance: 29,597 / 29,770
  • Support: 29,082 / 28,866

Semiconductor and storage stocks slumped Tuesday; SpaceX fell over 6%, Tesla dropped 4%, while Meta gained 2.55%.

Analyst View: Nasdaq broke below key moving averages, approaching late‑June lows. Watch support near 28,890 and Fed minutes guidance.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260708 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 64,407 / 65,564
  • Support: 62,578 / 61,655

Cryptos fell Tuesday after U.S. strikes on Iran and oil waiver revocation. ETF outflows add pressure to cryptocurrencies.

Analyst View: BTC/USD ended its rally, extending losses this morning. Key support lies at the 10‑ and 20‑day MA cluster around $61,800–62,000.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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