美国关键数据支持加息前景，科技股继续受累于估值忧虑 | ATFX Malaysia

要点

* 美国第一季度GDP大幅上修至2.1%，5月PCE同比涨幅突破4%，PCE通胀数据公布后，市场仍预计美联储将在7月按兵不动并可能最快在9月加息。

* 今日关注重点：关注美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值，在高通胀与高利率的双重挤压下，美国消费者信心持续承压，但市场预期本次数据有望反弹重回50上方。但若进一步下修，将确认消费支出动能减弱的趋势。

全球市场回顾：

昨天美国股市涨跌互现，估值担忧继续打压科技板块。道指收涨0.14%，标普500指数跌0.01%，纳指跌0.46%。美国公债收益率下跌，美元结束连续三个交易日的涨势。金价扭转跌势转而上涨，因美元回落且美国PCE物价缓解了市场对美联很快加息的预期。国际油价上涨约2%，因一艘货轮在阿曼附近遭不明弹体击中。

重要财经日历

22:00 美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值 ***

未来一周重要数据和事件（GMT+8）

周一：欧元区经济景气指数，美国达拉斯联储制造业指数
周二：欧洲央行行长拉加德讲话，中国制造业和非制造业PMI，英国GDP，德国CPI和失业率，加拿大GDP，美国咨商会消费者信心指数
周三：澳大利亚/日本/欧元区/英国/美国制造业PMI，欧元区CPI，美国ADP就业人数变动和ISM制造业PMI，EIA原油库存变化
周四：欧元区失业率，美国非农就业人数和初请失业金人数，美国工厂订单
周五：美国假期，澳大利亚/日本/欧元区/英国服务业PMI和综合PMI

【20260626 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1408/1.1422阻力
1.1328/1.1314支持

昨日受符合预期的美国通胀数据影响，欧元兑美元汇率在13个月低点附近企稳。尾盘轻微反弹，止步此前的三连跌。

分析师观点：欧元兑美元维持低位区间的徘徊，在日内清淡的指引下，预计可能维持低位整理模式，如果延续反弹不排除测试1.1400关口上方。

方向：低位整理

英镑兑美元

1.3246/1.3269阻力
1.3150/1.3132支持

尽管美国核心个人消费支出强劲，但美元多头势头减弱，英镑昨日跟随反弹，一度突破1.3200，今日亚市早段延续了上行。

分析师观点：汇价经过反弹暂时守住了近期下行通道底部，但是上行方面仍需要突破10日均线在1.3260附近的阻力来摆脱低位区间。

方向：低位整理

美元兑日元

162.06/162.18阻力
161.65/161.49支持

美元/日元汇率在接近四十年高位附近继续震荡，美日利率差距持续扩大，令收益率较低的日元承压，昨日美元兑日元轻微走高，跟随美元回落而升势放缓。

分析师观点：美元兑日元继续维持高位的盘整格局，留意动能放缓的情况下，日内不排除有部分仓位调整，若市场结利则留意短线调整。

方向：谨慎看涨

美国原油期货（8月）

73.68/74.29阻力
69.66/69.04支持

由于霍尔木兹海峡再现船只遇袭事件，国际原油反弹。WTI原油一度站上73美元，但随着更多船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，供应增加依然让油价承压。

分析师观点：原油昨日止步三日连跌，当前可能寻求低位区间的整固，即便反弹或偏向温和，尤其关注10日均线在75美元上方的阻力。

方向：低位区间整固

现货黄金

4024/4078阻力
3983/3939支持

现货白银

60.33/61.49阻力
55.30/54.12支持

尽管美国核心PCE物价指数高企，昨日借助美元的回落，黄金先跌后涨，从2025年11月以来最低水平反弹，重回4000美元关口上方。

分析师观点：黄金昨日录得反弹，得益于3960美元附近连续两日充当支撑，所以关注能否成为当前底部的情况下，让金价寻求更多反弹空间指向4100美元。

方向：温和反弹

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

52537/52744阻力
51663/51404支持

昨日道指在美国数据的指引下震荡，盘中一度刷新记录高位，虽然PCE物价和GDP双双高于预期，但是没有提升美联储急迫加息的可能性。

分析师观点：道指昨日高开后一度冲高至52660，时隔近一周再次刷新盘中高位，不过未能守住，所以该位继续充当目前阻力。

方向：高位整固

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

30084/30381阻力
28801/28493支持

周三受科技股走弱拖累，同时市场持续担忧高估值风险，纳斯达克指数继续承压，但是跌势有所改善。

分析师观点：纳指昨日盘中一度反弹测试10、20日均线交汇在29800附近的关键阻力但是折返，所以反弹动能依然温和，目前关注在均线和本周低位范围内的交投。

方向：区间整理

香港恒生指数HK50

23047/23172阻力
22632/22470支持

港股未摆脱弱势，今早再低开124点，失守两万三关口，科网股个别发展。HK50指数昨日加速下行，录得6月初以来的最大跌幅后今早跌势继续扩大。

分析师观点：HK50指数下行空间进一步打开，刷新去年6月初以来低位，所以聚焦前期低位在22600附近的关键支撑能否止住跌势。

方向：低位承压

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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