(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Key TakeawaysU.S. tech stocks faced pressure, leading to mixed results for major indices. Weak sentiment in the tech sector overshadowed a slight easing in rate-hike expectations. The U.S. dollar hit a 13-month high, gold fell to a seven-month low, and crude oil prices weakened as detained vessels near Hormuz resumed passage. Today’s focus: The U.S. May Core PCE Price Index and Q1 GDP final reading will be released tonight. Core PCE—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—is expected to rise to 3.4% YoY (previously 3.3%), reinforcing a hawkish stance. Markets will also watch if Q1 real GDP remains at 1.6%. |
Global Market Review 25/06/2026
U.S. equities were mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow rising 0.35%, the S&P 500 slipping 0.09%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.4% amid pressure on tech stocks. The dollar strengthened to a 13-month high, while gold dropped to a seven-month low, briefly falling below USD 4,000/oz. With traffic through the Strait of Hormuz normalizing, crude oil retreated to pre‑conflict levels.
Key Events Today:
- 09:30 AU Unemployment Rate MAY **
- 14:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence JUL **
- 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index MoM MAY ***
- 20:30 US GDP QoQ Final Q1 ***
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
June 26 (GMT+8)
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final JUN ***
Markets Analysis 25/06/2026
- Resistance: 1.1394 / 1.1404
- Support: 1.1325 / 1.1318
The euro fell to its lowest level since early June 2025 as the dollar strengthened. During Thursday’s Asian session, EUR/USD remained under pressure near 1.1360.
Analyst view: After touching 1.1325 yesterday, the pair staged a mild rebound. This level now serves as near‑term support. Today’s U.S. PCE data will be key in determining whether EUR/USD can stabilize after three consecutive days of decline.
Bias: Under pressure at lower levels.
- Resistance: 1.3210 / 1.3228
- Support: 1.3132 / 1.3114
A strong dollar and ongoing U.K. political uncertainty continued to weigh on the pound, pushing GBP/USD to its lowest level since last November, breaking below 1.3200.
Analyst view: The pair has broken below its March lows and continues to form lower lows, suggesting that bears may target 1.3100. Watch U.S. PCE data for direction; near‑term support lies at 1.3132 / 1.3114.
Bias: Under pressure at lower levels.
- Resistance: 161.91 / 162.07
- Support: 161.50 / 161.38
The Fed’s hawkish stance outweighed easing geopolitical tensions and moderating inflation, boosting USD/JPY. However, rising risks of Japanese government intervention may limit upside momentum.
Analyst view: USD/JPY advanced yesterday, nearing Monday’s highs. A breakout could test the 162 level, but caution over potential intervention may lead to profit-taking.
Bias: Cautiously bullish.
- Resistance: 71.67 / 72.30
- Support: 69.04 / 68.43
U.S.–Iran peace talks have led to more commercial tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices dropped sharply yesterday, nearing USD 70, reaching a three-month low.
Analyst view: The technical downtrend is worsening, with $68 likely to be the next key support as markets adjust to the supply recovery.
Bias: Under pressure at lower levels.
- Resistance: 4024 / 4078
- Support: 3939 / 3885
- Resistance: 59.12 / 60.33
- Support: 55.28 / 54.10
A stronger dollar and expectations of Fed rate hikes led to a decline in precious metals, with gold falling below USD 4,000 for the first time since last November and silver dropping below USD 60 for the first time since last December.
Analyst view: Gold’s next move hinges on tonight’s PCE data after breaking a key level. If it can’t reclaim $4,000, it may drop to $3,939 or $3,885.
Bias: Wait‑and‑see.
- Resistance: 52076 / 52338
- Support: 51404 / 51202
Dow rebounded as geopolitical tensions eased and markets anticipated PCE data, prompting a rotation of funds from tech to other sectors.
Analyst view: Dow futures tested levels above 52,000, nearing last week’s record highs. Today’s PCE data will decide if it can retest resistance.
Bias: Watching from higher levels.
- Resistance: 29710 / 30067
- Support: 28846 / 28563
Wall Street struggled to recover from Tuesday’s sell-off in memory and chip stocks, with cautious tech sentiment pushing the Nasdaq lower ahead of Micron’s earnings. However, Micron’s positive profit forecast boosted its shares by over 15% after hours, likely to support tech stocks today.
Analyst view: Watch for signs of easing downward momentum after three days of declines. A recovery needs support from PCE data and a break above the 10- and 20-day moving averages in the 29,700–29,900 range.
Bias: Downtrend may moderate.
- Resistance: 62213/63175
- Support: 59100/58155
Bitcoin slid on Wednesday, extending losses due to ongoing concerns about high U.S. interest rates and declining investor interest in the cryptocurrency market.
Analyst View: BTC briefly hit its lowest level since November 2024 before recovering to around $60,000. Staying above the June 5 low may help ease downside pressure.
Bias: Bearish tilt.
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