美联储暗示年内可能加息，今日英央行决议是否同样偏鹰？ | ATFX Malaysia

要点

* 美联储维持基准利率不变，但声明和点阵图显示，鉴于对通胀的担忧日益加剧，政策制定者预计将在今年晚些时候加息。美国短期利率期货目前反映美联储在9月份加息的可能性。

* 今日关注重点：英国央行利率决议，预期维持利率不变，真正的看点在于前瞻指引，若声明暗示年内可能加息，英镑将获支撑，若淡化加息预期，或强调经济下行风险，英镑将跟随走低。美国初请失业金人数预计略降至22.5万（前值22.9万）。

全球市场回顾：

美联储维持利率不变但是发出鹰调，点阵图显示预计2026年底将加息，以应对更高的通胀，昨日美股三大指数全线向下，道指收跌0.97%，标普500指数跌1.2%，纳指跌1.3%。美联储的鹰派立场带动美国国债收益率大幅攀升，美元指数反弹站上100关口，受美联储预期加息影响，黄金价格跌1.7%，现货白银失守68美元。WTI原油价格先涨后跌，最终收于3月4日以来最低位。

重要财经日历

14:00 英国失业率 **
15:30 瑞士央行利率决议 ***
19:00 英国央行利率决议及会议纪要 ***
20:30 美国初请失业金人数 ***
22:00 美国5月咨商会领先指标 **

6月19日

美国、中国、中国香港假期

07:30 日本5月CPI **
14:00 德国5月PPI **
14:00 英国5月零售销售 **

【20260618 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1546/1.1561阻力
1.1471/1.1452支持

美联储的鹰派立场在昨日带动美元反弹，欧元兑美元跌至3月底以来最低，周四亚洲早盘交易时段，欧元/美元在1.1510附近收复部分失地。

分析师观点：欧元兑美元昨日录得1月以来最大跌幅，一度下破1.1500关口后当前收复，昨日大跌后尝试守住上周低位，所以短线多头仍可能反弹，只是关注10日均线在1.1550附近转为了阻力。

方向：短线偏弱

英镑兑美元

1.3347/1.3365阻力
1.3246/1.3228支持

昨日的英镑/美元汇率受疲软的CPI和美联储鹰派立场双重打击，跌破1.3300关口，最新英国CPI数据抑制了市场对英国央行加息的预期，日内市场聚焦英国央行决议的立场。

分析师观点：昨日汇价录得年内来最大跌幅至4月7日以来最低位，今早尝试收复1.3300关口，当前可能徘徊在该位附近等待英国央行决议，如果英国央行暗示年内加息可能，则有望提振英镑反弹，届时关注10日均线在1.3370初步阻力。

方向：1.3300附近观望

美元兑日元

161.00/161.12阻力
160.31/160.19支持

美联储决议立场鹰派，美元兑日元昨日在高位进一步反弹，盘中突破4月底的高位至160.80，但基于投资者担忧日本可能干预外汇市场，汇价进一步大幅上行或者受限。

分析师观点：美元兑日元进一步刷新高位作为多头突破近一周交投区间顶部的尝试，技术上具备看涨的动能，但是干预的担忧可能进一步显现，初步阻力落在161关口。

方向：高位交投

美国原油期货（7月）

78.25/79.39阻力
73.49/72.58支持

国际原油延续跌势，WTI原油昨日低开后跌2%，尽管盘中一度走高，投资者正在权衡即将达成的美伊和平协议的影响，而霍尔木兹海峡航运能否全面恢复仍存在不确定性，留意明日美伊正式签署临时和平协议。

分析师观点：原油价格昨日先涨后回落，收于75美元，显示当前空头占主导的情况下，技术面仍具备进一步下行空间，下一个目标或指向70美元关口，目前先关注73.49/72.58美元支撑。

方向：低位承压

现货黄金

4364/4403阻力
4234/4194支持

现货白银

70.84/71.97阻力
67.93/67.05支持

美联储暗示今年晚些时候将加息，贵金属面临抛售压力，昨日收跌逾1%后，周四早盘，黄金价格收复部分失地，反弹回到4300美元上方。

分析师观点：黄金今早收复10日均线后买盘得到跟进，当前需要关注20日均线在4380美元附近，也是本周的主要阻力所在，在消化美联储决议的同时，市场等待明日美伊正式签署协议，但留意明日美国假期前部分仓位调整。

方向：温和反弹

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

52074/52335阻力
51204/50998支持

美联储更新后的点阵图偏鹰派，年底前加息的可能性打压美股三大指数集体回落，跌势在尾盘阶段持续扩大，道指自记录高位掉头收跌1%。

分析师观点：道指昨日止步连涨并录得一周以来最大跌幅，盘中曾一度刷新记录高位至52200上方，但最终回到51500附近，当前随着市场继续消化美联储鹰派，关注道指会否继续下试10日均线在51100附近支撑。

方向：短线调整

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

30081/30377阻力
29477/29175支持

美联储点阵图显示年内加息预期骤增，虽然半导体指数逆市收涨，但多数大型科技股收低，SpaceX首度收跌，纳指最终跌逾1%。

分析师观点：纳指连续两日回撤后，当前进入日图主要均线交汇处，日内是否跌破还是获得支撑将决定纳指是否能重新向记录高位靠近，抑或进一步指向29000关口，目前暂时关注29477/29175支撑。

方向：短线调整

香港恒生指数HK50

24377/24503阻力
23966/23841支持

昨日恒指录得两连跌，累跌530点或2.14%后今早继续承压，港股低开166点，大型科网股普遍受压。HK50指数昨日连跌三日后停留在上周的最低位处。

分析师观点：HK50指数今早维持一周低位在24000关口附近徘徊，日内收盘是否跌破该位将决定短线走势，如果跌破将打开更大下行空间指向23966/23841，但如果守住该关口则需要关注上方10日均线在24400附近阻力。

方向：低位承压

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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