市场聚焦美联储决议，沃什首秀立场将决定市场方向 | ATFX Malaysia

要点

* 昨日美伊协议部分细节公开，市场担忧核心部分的议题仍有待磋商解决，同时市场观望美联储决议，美股部分回落，黄金延续上涨，原油则创三个月最低。

* 今日关注重点：数据聚焦英国通胀数据，预计CPI年率加速至3%（前值2.8%），数据结果可能影响周四英国央行决议的立场。美国5月零售销售月率预计放缓至0.5%（前值0.9%）。周四凌晨，美联储将公布6月利率决议，这也是新任主席沃什上任后的首场政策会议。市场普遍预期将维持联邦基金利率不变，市场聚焦最新中东和平协议达成后，美联储如何定位当下经济和通胀局势以及是否保留年内加息的选项等。本次美联储还将更新季度点阵图、通胀和经济预测都是推动市场方向的关键。

全球市场回顾：

昨日美国股市走势分化，在科技股拖累下，美国股市纳斯达克指数和标普500指数周二收低，而道琼斯指数则连续第二日创下收盘历史新高。道指收涨0.6%，标普500指数跌0.57%，纳指跌1.15%。美国公债收益率和美元延续下跌，受美伊达成初步和平协议的持续乐观情绪影响。金价上涨，市场对美联储今年加息的预期有所减弱，现货金收高0.6%，报每盎司4330美元。报道称美伊协议允许伊朗立即对外出售原油，市场预计霍尔木兹海峡将恢复开放，油价连续第二日下挫，创三个月低点。

重要财经日历

14:00 英国5月CPI和PPI ***
17:00 欧元区5月CPI终值 ***
20:30 美国5月零售销售 ***
22:00 美国5月成屋销售 **
22:30 EIA原油库存变化 **

6月18日

02:00 美联储利率决议 ***
02:30 美联储新闻发布会 ***
14:00 英国失业率 **
15:30 瑞士央行利率决议 ***
19:00 英国央行利率决议及会议纪要 ***
20:30 美国初请失业金人数 ***
22:00 美国5月咨商会领先指标 **

【20260617 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1637/1.1658阻力
1.1571/1.1543支持

欧元兑美元昨日延续反弹，收于逾一周新高，周三亚洲时段早盘，欧元/美元汇率在1.1610附近保持稳定，市场观望美联储决议以及欧元区CPI终值。

分析师观点：汇价昨日尝试突破20日均线的关键阻力，日内如果可以守稳该位上方，则聚焦进一步上涨空间打开，有望继续指向1.1637/1.1658阻力。

方向：温和看涨

英镑兑美元

1.3457/1.3483阻力
1.3395/1.3374支持

周二，英镑兑美元价格仍徘徊在1.3400上方窄幅区间内。中东局势持续主导市场情绪，投资者在评估最新地缘政治发展，日内聚焦英国最新CPI报告和美联储决议。

分析师观点：英镑兑美元延续温和上涨，不过技术上突破了20日均线阻力，有望继续试探1.3450附近阻力，但是多头动能依然偏弱。

方向：温和看涨

美元兑日元

160.59/160.72阻力
160.19/160.07支持

尽管日本央行将利率上调至自1995年以来的最高水平，但美元兑日元仍维持在相对高位范围，日本央行对债券市场的谨慎态度削弱了日元，支撑了汇价。

分析师观点：美元兑日元连续温和上涨，维持在10日均线上方，昨日虽然日央行决议立场没有带来打压，但是市场在干预区间内依然保持谨慎，日内继续聚焦美联储决议的指引。

方向：窄幅观望

美国原油期货（7月）

78.20/79.34阻力
74.33/73.42支持

周二原油价格进一步下跌，因美国与伊朗协议的首批细节开始浮出水面，同时人们对霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的希望增强，国际原油创3月初以来新低。

分析师观点：原油价格今早继续维持承压，经过连续大跌后市场可能进入观望，聚焦美伊协议更多细节，但技术上原油价格下行空间进一步打开至74.33/73.42美元范围。

方向：短线看跌

现货黄金

4403/4443阻力
4274/4234支持

现货白银

71.87/72.84阻力
69.05/67.93支持

昨日现货黄金连续第四个交易日走高，美伊临时和平协议持续压制美元，不过市场对于美联储决议的观望也暂时限制金价的反弹，昨日黄金涨势温和。

分析师观点：黄金价格连续温和反弹，继续守在10日均线上方，美联储决议的公布或将决定金价能否测试20日均线在4395美元处的关键阻力，如果美联储淡化加息可能，则金价有望突破均线范围寻求进一步上涨指向4400美元上方。

方向：温和看涨

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

52335/52533阻力
51865/51663支持

美股三大指数周二收盘涨跌不一，资金从科技股流出的情况下，道指依然继续创下新高，触及52000的高位，市场继续聚焦美联储决议。

分析师观点：道指连续创新出高位后将进入美联储决议前的观望，如果美联储措辞发生变化，点阵图上调，则留意道指在记录高位的走势是否被打乱。

方向：高位谨慎

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

30377/30756阻力
29779/29477支持

昨日随着资金从科技股流出，昨日芯片股普跌，费城半导体指数跌5.71%，大型科技股涨跌互现，纳指未能延续上涨，而是回调超过1%，等待美联储决议登场。

分析师观点：纳指重回30000点关口下方，支撑方面聚焦10、20日均线集合在29650至29800范围内，如果美联储淡化加息可能性，则纳指有望重返高位范围。

方向：弱势观望

香港恒生指数HK50

24787/24916阻力
24250/24125支持

隔夜反映中国概念股表现的金龙指数跌2.5%，港股昨日下挫348点后，今早轻微高开1点。HK50指数昨日录得两日连跌后今早变化不大。

分析师观点：HK50指数今早在三日低位处维持承压，昨日下破10日均线后短线看跌压力增强，看是否会重新向上周低位范围靠近。

方向：短线看跌

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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