特朗普宣布和平协议达成，超级央行周前市场迎来真正转折？ | ATFX Malaysia

要点

* 特朗普与巴基斯坦总理表示，美伊已达成和平协议，预定在周五进行签署。受美伊和平协议消息的影响，美元和原油期货周一盘初应声下跌，美国股指期货和黄金跳涨。

* 今日关注重点：本周全球金融市场将迎来超级央行周——美联储、日本央行、英国央行、瑞士央行四大央行将公布利率决议，叠加多国通胀与零售数据密集出炉。今日数据方面关注欧元区工业产出，市场预期4月可能小幅改善但仍处于负值区间。美国5月工业产出及制造业产出预计将延续正增长，但环比增速可能回落。

全球市场回顾：

美国股市上周五收高，投资者乐观寄望于伊朗与美国达成和平协议，SpaceX上市首日股价飙升，也带动了市场乐观的情绪，三大指数周线均上涨约7%。美元指数持平于99.75，上周五金价小幅上涨，但周线下跌2.54%，为连续第二周下跌。上周五美国原油期货下跌2.83美元或3.23%，收报每桶84.88美元，为4月17日以来低位，今早跟随美伊达成协议的消息而大幅低开。

重要财经日历

15:15 欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话 ***
17:00 欧元区4月工业产出 **
21:15 美国5月制造业及工业产出 **

6月16日（GMT+8）

11:00 日本央行利率决议 ***
12:30 澳大利亚储备银行利率决议 ***
13:30 澳大利亚储备银行新闻发布会 ***
14:00 日本央行新闻发布会 ***
17:00 德国6月ZEW经济景气指数 **
20:30 美国5月营建许可 **
20:30 美国5月新屋开工 **

【20260615 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1658/1.1686阻力
1.1543/1.1521支持

欧元兑美元在前一日小幅下跌后，随着美国宣布与伊朗达成和平协议，重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的消息传出，美元走弱，欧元兑美元今早高开后进一步上涨。

分析师观点：欧元兑美元今早直接跟随地缘局势的利好而录得逾一周高位，当前测试20日均线1.1600，如果确认突破则意味着汇价短线迎来进一步看涨动能，有望继续挑战1.1658/1.1686阻力。

方向：短线看涨

英镑兑美元

1.3509/1.3533阻力
1.3384/1.3354支持

上周五英镑兑美元维持在1.3400关口附近的交投，投资者等待有关美伊战争的进一步明朗，今早汇价跟随美伊达成协议的消息走高。

分析师观点：英镑兑美元今早跟随消息走高后同样录得6月5日以来的高位，相继突破日图主要均线后如果可以守稳，则有望指向本月高位在1.3480上方的初步阻力甚至测试1.3500关口。

方向：短线看涨

美元兑日元

160.31/160.44阻力
159.79/159.66支持

美国总统特朗普宣布美伊谈判取得突破，上周五震荡反弹的美元兑日元今日亚市早段一度走低重新跌破160关口后反弹。

分析师观点：美元兑日元汇率上周五重返160关口上方后今早一度回吐，但在测试了20日均线后随即收复失地，当前测试10日均线阻力，是否突破将决定汇价能否维持近期高位范围内的交投。

方向：区间模式

美国原油期货（7月）

83.84/85.12阻力
78.54/77.30支持

上周五原油价格刷新4月17日以来盘中低点后，今早继续跟随美国与伊朗宣布达成和平协议的消息而大幅低开逾3%，继续刷新低位。

分析师观点：今早原油价格直接向80美元关口逼近，留意该位以及4月低位在79美元附近的关键支撑，如果跌破将启动新一轮下行指向78.54/77.30美元范围。

方向：低位承压

现货黄金

4377/4445阻力
4243/4159支持

现货白银

74.27/76.29阻力
68.12/65.58支持

上周五现货黄金在4200美元关口上方震荡，周一随着美国宣布和伊朗达成协议结束冲突，缓解了市场对通胀和利率上升的担忧，金价今早直接高开创四日最高位。

分析师观点：黄金今早高开直接测试着10日均线的关键阻力，如果宣告突破，则有望摆脱此前一周的低位交投模式，并进一步指向20日均线所在的4410美元上方阻力。

方向：短线看涨

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

51663/51865阻力
50998/50780支持

上周五美股连续两日反弹，因为市场对于美伊和平协议签署保持期待，而周末最新利好传来，今早美股期货跟随上涨，道指日内势将延续上周五的反弹。

分析师观点：日内跟随市场利好情绪反弹，意味着道指有望再度测试月初创下的记录高位至51000上方，届时关注前期高位在51663的初步阻力。

方向：高位看涨

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

30377/30756阻力
29174/28800支持

上周五随着市场乐观期待美伊协议进展，以及SpaceX上市首日收涨19%，均带动了科技股人气，纳指连续两日收高重返29600上方，日内将继续跟随美伊达成协议落地而上涨。

分析师观点：日内纳指跟随市场风险偏好上扬，有望继续向日图主要均线上方突破，意味着重新进入前期纪录高位范围的可能，当前先关注30377/30756阻力。

方向：短线看涨

香港恒生指数HK50

25272/25519阻力
24777/24470支持

外围美伊和平协议达成的利好带动亚洲股市今早走高，港股今早延续上周五反弹逾400点势头，恒指高开近300点，重返两万五关口。

分析师观点：HK50指数上周五连续两日收高后，今早进一步高开录得逾一周高位，当前交投在10日均线上方，进一步关注20日均线在2500上方的阻力，看是否限制反弹。

方向：短线看涨

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

Tagged 最近的新闻

© ATFX.COM. All rights reserved.

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a group of entities including:

AT Global Markets (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom with registration number 760555. The Registered Office: Tower 42, Leaf 35C, 25 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HQ, United Kingdom.

AT Global Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission with AFSL number 418036. The registered office: Tower 2 Darling Park, Level 16, 201 Sussex Street, Sydney NSW 2000.

AT Global Markets SA (Pty) Ltd is licensed in South Africa by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority with FSP license number 44816 and a licensed OTC Derivatives Provider. The registered office: Office 1801B, 18th Floor Portside Tower, 4 Bree Street, Cape Town, Western Cape 8001. ATFX SA and ATFX Connect are trading names of AT Global Markets SA (Pty) Ltd.

ATFX Global Markets (CY) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under the license no. 285/15. The Registered Office: 159 Leontiou A’ Street, Maryvonne Building Office 204, 3022, Limassol, Cyprus.

AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission with license number C118023331. The Registered Office: G08, Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius.

AT Global Markets (SC) Limited is licensed by the Seychelles Financial Services Authority as a Securities Dealer with License No. SD093. The Registered Office: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles.

AT Global Financial Services (HK) Limited is authorized and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in the Hong Kong with license number BUM667. The Registered Office: 17/F, 80 Gloucester Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

ATFX MENA Financial Services LLC is regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA) in the United Arab Emirates with Category 5 license number 20200000078.

EMERGING MARKETS is regulated by the Jordan Securities Commission authority as an Introducing Broker license number 643 and is the regulated entity in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

ATFX is a trade mark of AT Global Markets INTL LTD a company registered in Mauritius under FSC and all services in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is offered through its Introducing Broker.

AT Global Markets LLC is a Limited Liability Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with company number 333 LLC 2020. The Registered Office: Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

ATFX (Cambodia) Company Limited in Cambodia is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia with the license number 040.

HIGH RISK INVESTMENT WARNING: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts for Differences (CFDs) is highly speculative, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may sustain a loss of some or all of your invested capital, therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Please read the full Terms of Business.

Restricted Regions: AT Global Markets LLC does not provide services to residents of certain countries, including but not limited to Canada, Japan, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Iran and United States of America (USA), or any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.