(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Key TakeawaysUS President Donald Trump said on Monday that a planned strike against Iran has been suspended after Tehran submitted a new peace proposal to Washington. The pause allows further negotiations, prompting markets to reassess the likelihood of a US-Iran deal and to watch for short-term progress. Today’s Focus: During the European and US sessions, market attention will centre on the UK’s April unemployment rate, expected to hold steady around 4.9%. Investors are closely watching the job market’s reaction to the recent hike in the employer National Insurance contribution rate, as well as whether real wage growth can continue to outpace inflation. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate could provide a short-term boost to the British Pound and fuel expectations of a Bank of England rate hike. |
Global Market Review 19/05/2026
On Monday, US stock indexes closed mixed as investors took profits in tech stocks. Rising Treasury yields and oil prices continued to fuel concerns about inflation and borrowing costs. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.07%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. After surging overnight, long-term US Treasury yields retreated, while the US dollar weakened against most major currencies.
Optimism about a potential US-Iran peace deal temporarily eased inflation fears. Gold prices edged higher, supported by a weaker dollar, though gains were capped by rising bond yields and underlying inflation concerns. Crude prices rose about 3% to a two-week high. Market anxieties about potential supply disruptions from a conflict with Iran overshadowed the positive news that the US had agreed to waive sanctions on Iranian crude during the negotiations.
Key Events Today:
- 07:50 JP GDP Prel Q1 ***
- 09:30 AU RBA Meeting Minutes ***
- 14:00 GB Unemployment Rate MAR **
- 20:30 CA CPI APR **
- 22:00 US Pending Home Sales APR **
May 20th
NVIDIA Earnings Report ***
- 04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
- 09:15 CN Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y MAY **
- 14:00 EU GERMANY PPI MoM APR **
- 14:00 GB CPI & PPI APR ***
- 17:00 EU CPI YoY Final APR ***
- 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **
Markets Analysis 19/05/2026
- Resistance: 1.1676/1.1692
- Support: 1.1622/1.1601
Trump’s decision to pause the planned strike on Iran indirectly helped the Euro halt its multi-day losing streak yesterday. However, the geopolitical situation remains fragile, and inflation concerns appear to be intensifying, likely capping the rebound in a cautious market backdrop.
Analyst View: After recently bottoming near 1.1610—its lowest since April 8—the EUR/USD rebounded to close higher but faced renewed selling this morning. To ease downward pressure, the pair would need to close above the resistance near 1.1680, a key technical level from previous sessions, signaling improved bullish momentum.
Bias: Moderate Rebound
- Resistance: 1.3467/1.3540
- Support: 1.3350/1.3291
On Monday, the British Pound rebounded from the 1.3300 handle, recovering some of last week’s losses. The UK Prime Minister said they will not resign, while Bank of England officials remain divided, though the hawkish camp has strengthened. Today’s UK employment report and tomorrow’s CPI data will be critical in shaping the interest rate outlook.
Analyst View: The GBP/USD rebounded from its lowest level since April 8, ending a multi-day slide and recording its strongest daily gain since late April. The pair must break above 1.3460 to build on its recent momentum.
Bias: Moderate Rebound
- Resistance: 159.39/159.73
- Support:158.62/158.28
The Japanese Finance Minister said the government is ready to act at any time to counter excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market, as speculative behavior continues to affect financial markets. Japan’s first-quarter GDP data, released this morning, beat expectations, further cementing market anticipation that the Bank of Japan will continue to press ahead with monetary policy normalisation gradually.
Analyst View: Despite a slight dollar retracement, USD/JPY advanced for the sixth session, though the rally slowed. Recent comments on the Japanese exchange rate suggest upside potential is capped. Watch for selling pressure around the 159 mark.
Bias: Cautious at Highs
- Resistance: 104.68/107.46
- Support: 98.06/95.84
Crude oil jumped more than 3% yesterday before giving back some of those gains. This followed Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announcing that negotiations between the two sides are ongoing and hinting at the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. With the US also pausing its plan to strike Iran, the crude market remains in a wait-and-see stance amid ongoing volatility.
Analyst View: Crude traded erratically yesterday, reaching a two-week high before briefly testing support beneath key moving averages. Traders should focus on the $98–$105 range today while awaiting fresh market direction from news.
Bias: Range-Bound
- Resistance: 4637/4669
- Support: 4540/4500
- Resistance: 80.10/82.28
- Support: 73.58/70.84
Supported by a weaker US dollar, gold prices edged higher late in yesterday’s session. However, as the conflict with Iran intensifies and inflation concerns fuel expectations of tighter monetary policy, the potential upside for gold may remain limited.
Analyst View: Spot gold fell to its lowest level since late March during yesterday’s trading, before finding support near $4,480 and recovering its losses. However, the subsequent gains were modest. As long as prices remain below key moving averages on the daily chart, the bias remains under pressure.
Bias: Volatile with a Downward Bias
- Resistance: 49853/50033
- Support: 49458/49281
On Monday, the three major US stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow bounced back from an early decline to edge slightly higher late in the session, as the market closely monitored further developments in the Middle East conflict, with the latest progress appearing to lean towards the optimistic side.
Analyst View: Dow rebounded after hitting its lowest level since May 5 and now trades above its 20-day moving average. However, it faces resistance at the 10-day moving average, a commonly watched technical level, and its ability to close above this level can signal a broader rebound or a stall.
Bias: Capped Rebound
- Resistance: 29499/29886
- Support: 28619/28225
Large-cap tech stocks closed mixed on Monday, with Netflix up more than 3%, Tesla down nearly 3%, and Nvidia down more than 1%. The Nasdaq weakened for the second consecutive session, moving further from its record highs.
Analyst View: After two consecutive days of correction, Nasdaq broke below the psychological 29,000 level yesterday but closed above its 10-day moving average. If the index holds its ground and rebounds from this level today, it could aim to reclaim its recent highs. Conversely, a break below this support could trigger a deeper correction towards last week’s lows.
Bias: Volatile with a Downward Bias
- Resistance: 78873/79808
- Support: 76084/74912
Bitcoin inched lower on Monday, extending weekend losses as surging global bond yields and rising oil prices, linked to escalating tensions in Iran, weakened appetite for riskier assets.
Analyst View: BTC/USD recorded its fourth consecutive day of losses, marking the lowest level since late April. With price approaching the previous low near 74,900—an area of past buyer interest—traders are watching to see whether this support level holds and establishes a base for recovery, or whether a break signals further downside.
Bias: Short-Term Bearish
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