美国称或重启对伊军事行动，美股遭遇大跌后市场以避险开局 | ATFX Malaysia

要点

* 据报导，特朗普预计周二将与国家安全高级顾问会面，商讨针对伊朗的军事行动方案。周末伊朗表示已制定一项机制，将通过一条指定航线管理霍尔木兹海峡的船舶通行，该机制将于近期公布。

* 美联储周五表示，已任命鲍威尔担任临时主席，直至沃什宣誓就任为止。

* 今日关注重点：今日数据较为清淡，但本周全球金融市场将迎来一系列关键经济数据的集中发布，从日本GDP到英国CPI，从欧元区PMI到美联储纪要和英伟达业绩。这些数据不仅将验证各国经济韧性，更可能为当前波动的外汇、美股与商品市场指明短期方向。

全球市场回顾：

上周五美国股市从纪录高位回落，三大股指均大幅下跌，跌幅超过1%。道指收跌1.07%，标普500指数收跌1.24%，纳指收跌1.54%。不过，标普500指数仍录得连续第七周上涨，为自2023年12月以来最长的周线升势。在美联储加息预期推动下，美国公债收益率升至一年高位，美元连续第五个交易日走强，并创下两个月来最大单周涨幅。上周五金价跌至逾一周低点，受美国公债收益率和美元走强影响，周线下挫3.7%。油价上涨逾3%，因美伊达成协议的希望削弱，对全球供应的持续担忧继续支撑着油价。

重要财经日历

10:00 中国4月社会消费品零售总额及工业增加值 **

5月19日

07:50 日本第一季度GDP平减指数年率初值 ***
09:30 澳储行会议纪要 ***
14:00 英国3月失业率 **
20:30 加拿大4月CPI **
22:00 美国4月成屋销售 **

【20260518 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1639/1.1655阻力
1.1584/1.1568支持

市场对美联储鹰派立场的预期不断升温，在美元整体强势和美国收益率上升的背景下，上周五欧元连续四日收跌并触及五周低点。

分析师观点：经过连续下跌后，欧元兑美元打开了进一步下行空间至接近1.1600，如果跌破将进入3月主要交投区间，下一目标或指向1.1584/1.1568区间。

方向：短线看跌

英镑兑美元

1.3350/1.3408阻力
1.3291/1.3233支持

英镑兑美元连续第四个交易日下跌，上周五跌破1.3400关口，创下新的月度低点，英镑仍受强劲的美元压力以及英国财政和政治对首相斯塔默任期的持续担忧所压。

分析师观点：英镑兑美元当前逼近1.3300关口，空头继续主导的情况下，当前可能继续向3月底低位靠近，暂时关注1.3291/1.3233范围内支撑。

方向：短线看跌

美元兑日元

159.39/159.73阻力
158.28/157.94支持

美元兑日元上周五突破158.80，创逾两周高点，受美日收益率差距扩大的提振，美伊紧张局势再度升级带来的经济风险，暂时抵消了市场对日本当局干预日元的担忧。

分析师观点：美元兑日元上周五录得五日连涨，今早延续反弹逼近159关口，如果继续突破该位，部分仓位会在挑战160关口前保持谨慎，或限制汇价大幅走高。

方向：高位谨慎

美国原油期货（7月）

104.68/107.46阻力
100.28/98.06支持

上周五原油价格延续涨势，霍尔木兹原油供应风险依然存在，此前中美会谈并未制定任何重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的具体计划，不过市场留意周末伊朗表示已制定一项机制，将通过一条指定航线管理霍尔木兹海峡的船舶通行。

分析师观点：今早原油价格进一步走高逼近测试上周的高位，目前留意能否突破104美元关口，意味着有望挑战近期上行通道顶部的阻力。

方向：短线偏多

现货黄金

4572/4604阻力
4468/4435支持

现货白银

77.91/80.10阻力
70.84/68.69支持

市场对美联储鹰派立场的预期支撑着美国国债收益率和美元的强势，此外，由于特朗普再次警告伊朗，加剧了中东紧张局势升级的风险，上周五黄金价格在月度低点附近徘徊后今早扩大下行。

分析师观点：黄金价格在今早创下3月底以来最低位，4500美元下方备受考验，如果测试前期低位区间，则关注来自4468/4435美元范围内支撑，届时可能会吸引部分低位买盘。

方向：弱势徘徊

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

49853/50033阻力
49458/49281支持

上周五美股市场由人工智能驱动的行情暂缓，高通胀持续增强美联储加息信号，导致资金从股市撤离，道指跌逾500点，录得3月底以来最大跌幅。

分析师观点：当前市场继续聚焦美伊局势和加息前景，道指上周五跌破日图主要均线后脱离高位，短线预计仍可能向下，需要关注49458/49281范围内的支撑。

方向：短线承压

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

29499/29886阻力
29006/28619支持

面对美债收益率上扬，上周五大型科技股普跌，其中美光科技跌6.62%，英特尔跌6.18%，英伟达跌4.42%，特斯拉跌4.75%，纳指在三大指数中领跌。

分析师观点：纳指上周五自纪录范围调整，但是价格没有大幅脱离高位，在守住10日均线的情况下，多头可能再试反弹，但是留意当前市场的谨慎情绪或限制反弹，尤其在本周英伟达业绩公布前。

方向：高位受限

香港恒生指数HK50

25848/25996阻力
25511/25358支持

恒指上周累跌430点后，今早继续受压，低开逾百点，科网股普遍低开，大市整体氛围受挫。HK50指数上周五连跌两日，累计跌逾4%，今早进一步测试4月底最低位。

分析师观点：经过大幅调整后，HK50正在考验前期低位在25600下方的关键支撑，如果跌破将打开更低区间指向25511/25358范围。

方向：短线偏空

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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