特朗普称停火“岌岌可危”，市场聚焦今晚美国CPI是否升温 | ATFX Malaysia

要点

* 美国总统特朗普周一表示，与伊朗的停火已“岌岌可危”，此前他拒绝了德黑兰对美国和平提议的回应，这加剧了外界对冲突可能再度升级的担忧。

* 今日关注重点：美国将于今晚公布4月CPI，这是中东冲突升级以来第二份完整的月度通胀数据，市场关注度极高。市场普遍关注4月数据是否会显示通胀进一步升温，重点关注能源分项，油价滞后影响可能在4月数据中进一步体现，市场预期CPI年率将升至3.7%（前值3.3%），预计月率将大幅上涨0.6%，如果超预期则表明通胀形势严峻并进一步淡化美联储降息预期。

全球市场回顾：美国股市周一小幅收高，市场审视美伊和平谈判陷入僵局，不过AI板块继续提供动力。尾盘道指收涨0.19%，标普500指数涨0.19%，纳指涨0.1%。美国公债收益率上涨，美元微升。昨日黄金先跌后反弹，尾盘轻微收高等待今日的美国通胀报告，整体氛围保持谨慎。油价昨日高开后收高，WTI原油收高3.77%，因为市场担忧美伊局势再度紧张。

重要财经日历

14:00 德国4月CPI终值 **
17:00 欧元区5月ZEW经济景气指数 **
20:30 美国4月CPI ***

5月13日

04:30 API原油库存变化***
09:30 澳大利亚第一季度薪资价格指数 **
17:00 欧元区第一季度GDP修正值 ***
17:00 欧元区3月工业产出 **
20:30 美国4月PPI ***
22:30 EIA原油库存变化**

【20260512 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1798/1.1820阻力
1.1729/1.1701支持

欧元兑美元昨日录得两日连涨后，周二亚洲早盘，欧元兑美元小幅回吐接近1.1770附近，市场在4月美国通胀报告发布前以及中东持续的地缘政治紧张局势下保持谨慎。

分析师观点：欧元兑美元昨日保持温和的上涨，但是涨势受阻，1.1788连续充当阻力，除非日内可以在数据的带动下迎来突破，否则可能在盘整中转为偏弱，关键聚焦美国CPI的指引。

方向：区间内谨慎

英镑兑美元

1.3634/1.3658阻力
1.3556/1.3532支持

英镑周一小幅下跌，盘中多空经历了较为明显的较量，工党选举失利导致英国首相斯塔默面临新一轮政治压力，与此同时，市场等待美国CPI报告。

分析师观点：昨日汇价盘中经历波动后最终尾盘变化不大，一度刷新月初来的高位，也曾下探日图主要均线的支撑，所以日内美国CPI可能是决定突破方向的关键。

方向：区间内谨慎

美元兑日元

157.94/158.28阻力
156.83/156.49支持

今早日本央行意见摘要显示委员们认为可能需要应对价格波动上升的风险，此前日本3月份家庭支出数据令人失望，抑制了市场对日本央行立即加息的预期。然而，对日元可能被干预的担忧，使得多头犹豫不决。

分析师观点：美元兑日元昨日反弹收高于157关口后今早升势继续跟进，当前正在测试10日均线的阻力，如果突破则意味着上周高位成为目标，有望接近158关口，聚焦美国CPI指引。

方向：温和看涨

美国原油期货（6月）

103.44/107.29阻力
94.98/91.19支持

由于市场对美国和伊朗近期达成永久停火协议的预期减弱，昨日WTI原油一度重回100美元上方，当前特朗普对于协议的最新回应也为原油提供支撑。

分析师观点：原油价格昨日高开后盘中一度扩大升势但未能守住，盘中高低位落在了10、20日均线范围内，当前暂时维持该区间内交投等待今晚美国CPI间接指引和美伊最新回应都可能重新制造波动。

方向：区间整理

现货黄金

4789/4835阻力
4650/4593支持

现货白银

87.73/89.12阻力
84.44/83.03支持

昨日金价经历先跌后回升，周二早盘亚洲盘，黄金价格微升至接近4750美元，市场等待美国4月CPI通胀数据，美国任何通胀升温的迹象都可能导致人们预期美国美联储可能会更长时间维持较高利率，则会利空金价。

分析师观点：黄金昨日录得三日低位后拉升，收复20日均线，今早顺势加大反弹测试4月21日以来的高位，所以表明多头尝试突破，今晚美国CPI或决定金价能否向4800美元发起测试。

方向：谨慎看涨

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

50366/50936阻力
49112/48562支持

周一美股三大指数集体收涨，尽管一季度财报季进入尾声，由业绩驱动的上涨动能有所放缓，但大市继续受人工智能热潮持续推动，不过银行股延续走低，美伊和平谈判陷入僵局令道指涨势温和。

分析师观点：道指连续两日温和上涨，显示市场的观望情绪，日内美国通胀公布也将决定道指会否突破近日的窄幅交投区间，如果向上将以上周高位为目标，向下则关注日图主要均线支撑。

方向：区间观望

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

29484/29868阻力
28992/28607支持

昨日尽管科技巨头多数走低，但半导体板块明显跑赢其他行业，AI相关交易热度持续高涨，纳指继续创下新高，不过涨势同样温和，因为市场聚焦美伊局势和今日美国CPI公布。

分析师观点：纳指昨日继续刷新高位但是涨势明显放缓，动能有所减弱，而今晚的美国通胀报告将决定其连续刷新高位的势头会否中断还是进一步扩大。

方向：高位审慎

香港恒生指数HK50

26650/26775阻力
26240/26113支持

昨日港股先跌后反弹，一度跌逾百点后，在A股造好带动下，大市逐步收复失地并轻微收高，市场聚焦本周腾讯、阿里巴巴、京东等巨头陆续公布财报。

分析师观点：HK50指数昨日低开但造好，维持在上周相对高位范围，不过留意上周高位以及短线下行趋势线共同带来阻力是否影响反弹，除非财报乐观带来突破。

方向：温和看涨

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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