(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Summary
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Global Market Review 31/03/2026
Yesterday, U.S. stock markets ended mixed. New warnings from President Trump directed at Tehran and the expanding conflict in the Middle East offset market optimism in response to his comments on potential U.S.-Iran negotiations. The Dow Jones closed up 0.11%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.39% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.73%. U.S. Treasury yields declined, and the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.22%. The Yen found support as Japanese officials intensified warnings regarding currency market intervention.
As safe-haven demand rebounded, gold prices rose for the second consecutive session, with spot gold closing up 0.4% at $4,510.24 per ounce. Following the Houthi rebels’ first attack on Israel and the broadening Iran conflict—including reports that a fully loaded oil tanker was hit in Dubai’s port area—U.S. crude oil futures closed higher, breaking the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since 2022.
Key Events Today:
- 07:30 JP Unemployment Rate FEB **
- 08:30 RBA Meeting Minutes ***
- 09:30 CN NBS Manufacturing & Composite PMI MAR **
- 14:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales MoM FEB **
- 14:00 GB GDP Final QoQ Q4 **
- 15:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate FEB **
- 17:00 EU CPI YoY Flash MAR **
- 20:30 CA GDP MoM JAN **
- 22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence MAR **
Tomorrow
- 04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock ***
- 06:00 AU Manufacturing PMI Final MAR **
- 08:30 JP Manufacturing PMI Final MAR **
- 09:45 CN Manufacturing PMI MAR**
- 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final MAR **
- 16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final MAR **
- 16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final MAR **
- 17:00 EU Unemployment Rate FEB **
- 20:15 US ADP Employment Change MAR ***
- 21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final MAR ***
- 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI MAR ***
- 22:30 EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock **
Markets Analysis 31/03/2026
- Resistance: 1.1526/1.1553
- Support: 1.1411/1.1385
EURUSD fell to 1.1457 as surging energy costs shifted focus to Eurozone growth fears. Powell’s neutral stance and the dismissal of 2026 rate cuts further strengthened the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal against the Euro.
Analyst View: The pair is currently “suffocating” within a descending channel, failing to gain traction above the 0.5 Fibonacci pivot. Sellers are aggressively weaponizing the stagflation narrative, keeping price action pinned. Without a dovish pivot, the structural path of least resistance points toward a cold retest of the 1.1385 deep support.
Bias: Bearish below 1.1500. Watch for support near 1.1410.
- Resistance: 1.3257/1.3287
- Support: 1.3157/1.3117
Sterling fell to 1.3181, its fifth losing session. Trump’s conflicting signals on Iran and the removal of Fed rate-cut bets bolstered the USD, leaving risk-sensitive Sterling trapped by a fragile UK growth outlook.
Analyst View: The pair is currently in a “downward spiral” within a steep descending channel, with bears effectively turning previous floors into ceilings. Momentum is aggressively targeting the 1.3157 (1.236 Fib) extension. Unless a shock risk-on event occurs, Sterling is likely to continue its “death by a thousand cuts” toward the 1.3117 base.
Bias: Under pressure below 1.3200.
- Resistance: 160.18/160.47
- Support: 159.55/159.27
USDJPY closed at 159.63 after a brief spike above 160.00 triggered severe intervention warnings. BoJ Governor Ueda’s hint that Yen weakness could justify future hikes provided a temporary lifeline for the currency.
Analyst View: USDJPY is currently squeezed between the 160.00 intervention firewall and the 159.27 floor. While the yield spread favors the Dollar, BoJ’s potential “invisible hand” creates a tactical ceiling near 160.47, keeping buyers on edge.
Bias: Consolidation at high levels.
- Resistance: 108.33/113.28
- Support: 98.26/93.22
WTI settled at $102.88, its first close above $100 since 2022. Houthi strikes on Israel, and Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit tax have sent supply chain anxieties and risk premiums into overdrive.
Analyst View: WTI has shifted into “war-premium” overdrive, weaponizing the $100 floor. Surpassing the 98.26 pivot suggests bulls are hunting 108.33. Unless diplomacy cools the Red Sea, the technical path points toward a retest of 113.28.
Bias: Bullish above $100.
- Resistance: 4646/4741
- Support: 4420/4344
- Resistance: 72.09/75.51
- Support: 67.86/64.39
Gold rose to $4,518.57 on mandatory safe-haven demand. Despite fading hopes of rate cuts and a stronger USD, the escalating Middle East conflict provides a significant tailwind against Gold’s worst monthly performance since 2008.
Analyst View: Gold has pivoted out of its steep decline. Price is currently consolidating above the 4,495 (0.618 Fib) level. A sustained break above 4,646 is required to confirm a structural trend reversal and target the 4,741 resistance.
Bias: Short-term Bullish if it breaks $4,550.
- Resistance: 46211/46797
- Support: 44273/43516
The Dow rose slightly to 45,216.14, aided by financial stocks following 401(k) policy updates. While Powell’s calm on inflation provided relief, the index remains under intense pressure for a correction due to rising energy costs.
Analyst View: The Dow is clinging to a fragile “oversold” bounce within a descending channel. While the 45,000 psychological floor held, the index remains pinned below the 46,211 pivot. Without a volume-backed breakout, this rally appears to be a technical breather before a retest of 44,273.
Bias: Under pressure below 45,500.
- Resistance: 23308/23586
- Support: 22698/22425
The NAS100 shed 0.73% to 20,794.64 as high yields and low consumer confidence suffocated tech. Plunging memory prices were viewed as a sign of suppressed demand rather than a cost-saving benefit.
Analyst View: The index is currently trapped in a “valuation vice” within a steep descending channel. Having sliced through the 23,854 psychological floor, price is now targeting the 22,698 (1.386 Fib) extension. Without stabilisation in the long end of the curve, tech remains vulnerable to further re-rating.
Bias: Under pressure below 23,300.
- Resistance: 68374/69595
- Support: 64439/63197
Bitcoin edged up to $66,734.8 as investors navigated conflicting U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals. Despite Houthi missile strikes and Trump’s threats against Iranian infrastructure, the market found a tentative floor, even as MicroStrategy potentially paused its 13-week buying streak.
Analyst View: BTC is currently attempting to “decouple” from the geopolitical discount within a downtrend channel. While the $65,640 level provided a tactical bounce, the structural bias remains fragile. Bulls must decisively reclaim the $68,374 (0.736 Fib) pivot to shift sentiment toward a sustainable recovery.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish below $68,000.
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