Market Highlight 11/02/2026
US December retail sales, released yesterday, unexpectedly came in flat, signaling weaker consumer momentum. US equities closed mixed: the Dow inched higher and notched a third consecutive record close, while investors digested the disappointing retail sales print and waited for the key labor-market report. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.33%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.59%. US Treasury yields declined, and the US Dollar Index edged down 0.15% to 96.805. A run of recent data has hinted at a slowing economy, giving the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates.
Gold ended its streak of gains overnight as markets turned into a wait-and-see mode ahead of US jobs and inflation data. Spot gold settled down 0.82% at $5,022.98/oz. Oil prices fell, with markets watching progress in US–Iran diplomacy, efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, and directional cues from US economic data.
Key Outlook 11/02/2026
Today’s main focus is the US January Nonfarm Payrolls report due tonight, which is likely to set the tone for markets this week. The market expects payrolls to rise to 70K (previous 50K), the unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%, and average hourly earnings (m/m) to remain modest at 0.3%. While headline job growth is forecast to pick up, recent indicators suggest the US labour market remains largely stagnant at the start of 2026. If tonight’s data undershoots expectations, volatility could re-accelerate — with particular attention on swings in gold and US equities.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 09:30 CN CPI & PPI JAN **
- 21:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls JAN ***
- 23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **
Tomorrow:
- 07:50 JP PPI YoY JAN **
- 15:00 GB GDP Prel QoQ Q4 ***
- 15:00 GB Industrial and Manufacturing Production MoM DEC **
- 17:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report **
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 23:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM JAN **
Markets Analysis 11/02/2026
- Resistance: 1.1962/1.1999
- Support: 1.1841/1.1803
EURUSD edged lower after the prior rebound, with dollar softness still underpinning downside pressure. Technically, price stalled near the 1.1962–1.1999 resistance zone while holding above 1.1803–1.1841 support, keeping the pair range-bound ahead of key U.S. data.
- Resistance: 1.3746/1.3809
- Support: 1.3544/1.3482
GBPUSD steadied as the dollar softened, though concerns about UK growth and easing expectations cap the upside. Technically, price remains capped below the 1.3746–1.3809 resistance zone, while 1.3482–1.3544 provides key support. With no major UK data, near-term moves remain range-bound and USD-led.
- Resistance: 154.89/155.55
- Support: 153.57/152.92
USDJPY extended losses as post-election fiscal expectations in Japan supported the yen, while broader USD weakness and intervention speculation added pressure. Technically, rebounds are capped by the 154.89–155.55 resistance zone, keeping price within a descending channel. Immediate support is at 153.57, with a deeper pullback toward 152.92 if that level is broken.
- Resistance: 65.01/65.52
- Support: 63.31/62.79
WTI edged lower as markets awaited progress in U.S.–Iran talks and developments in Ukraine, keeping near-term sentiment cautious. Technically, prices remain capped below the $65.01–65.52 resistance zone, while $63.31–62.79 continues to provide key support, with Middle East risk premiums capping downside.
- Resistance: 5149/5202
- Support: 4929/4877
- Resistance: 88.06/92.18
- Support: 74.94/70.86
Gold hovered near the $5,000 mark as investors took profits ahead of key U.S. jobs and CPI data. Technically, the upside is capped at $5,149–5,202, while $4,929–4,877 remains a key support zone. A softer dollar and geopolitical risks continue to underpin the broader bullish bias.
- Resistance: 50510/50752
- Support: 49715/49469
Dow Futures held at record highs for a third session as investors favored defensive names ahead of U.S. payrolls. Technically, the upside faces resistance at 50,510–50,752, while pullbacks are supported near 49,715–49,469, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite softer retail data.
- Resistance: 25404/25584
- Support: 24867/24641
NAS100 pulled back as tech stocks came under pressure from weak retail data and AI capex concerns. Technically, rebounds are capped at 25,404–25,584, while downside support lies at 24,867–24,641. Valuation sensitivity is keeping upside momentum constrained ahead of key U.S. data.
- Resistance: 74453/78937
- Support: 64344/59935
Bitcoin slipped below $70,000 and remained rangebound ahead of U.S. jobs and CPI data. Technically, rebounds face resistance between $74,453 and $78,937, while key support lies between $64,344 and $59,935. Despite cautious sentiment, steady spot ETF inflows signal resilient institutional demand.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.
