Market Highlight 03/12/2025
US equities closed higher on Tuesday in thin trading, marking gains in six of the past seven sessions. Tech stocks lifted overall sentiment, and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week remain strong. The Dow rose 0.39%, the S&P 500 gained 0.25%, and the Nasdaq added 0.59%. The US Dollar Index softened into the close, slipping 0.06% to 99.34, while EUR/USD edged up 0.1% to 1.1624.
Gold retreated overnight as investors took profits after Monday’s six-week high and turned cautious ahead of key US data and next week’s Fed policy meeting. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,207.2 per ounce. Oil prices dropped more than 1%, with markets weighing fluctuating hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace talks against ongoing concerns of oversupply.
Key Outlook 03/12/2025
Today, market attention is centered on US data. The November ADP employment change is expected to show a modest increase of 10,000 jobs, down from the previous forecast of 42,000, underscoring the negative impact of the government shutdown on the labor market. The November ISM non-manufacturing PMI is projected to stay in expansionary territory but ease slightly to 52.1 from 52.4.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 16:55 EU GERMANY Services PMI Final NOV **
- 17:00 EU Services PMI Final NOV **
- 17:30 GB Services PMI Final NOV **
- 18:00 EU PPI OCT **
- 21:15 US ADP Employment Change NOV ***
- 22:45 US Services PMI Final NOV **
- 23:00 US ISM Services PMI NOV **
- 23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **
Tomorrow:
- 16:00 EU Retail Sales OCT **
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
Markets Analysis 03/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1656/1.1676
- Support: 1.1612/1.1592
EUR/USD hovered near 1.1615 as Eurozone inflation edged up to 2.2%, with ECB officials stressing that price growth is essentially at target. With markets awaiting U.S. PCE data, policy expectations stay muted, keeping the pair confined in a tight range above 1.1612 support.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3248/1.3276
- Support: 1.3185/1.3157
GBP/USD edged down to 1.3202 after the BOE lowered bank capital requirements for the first time in ten years to boost lending. With few UK-specific catalysts, the pair remained driven mainly by USD flows ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. A hold above 1.3185 keeps the short-term bias steady.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 156.26/156.89
- Support: 155.25/154.74
USD/JPY bounced to 155.91 as traders reassessed Ueda’s hawkish signals after Monday’s sharp yen surge. Despite markets still pricing nearly an 80% chance of a December BoJ hike, the dollar found support from a steady U.S. outlook and firm yields. The pair faces resistance near 156.26–156.89.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 59.29/59.64
- Support: 57.85/57.51
WTI slid to $58.64, pressured by optimism over potential progress in Russia–Ukraine peace talks and ongoing oversupply concerns. Hopes that restrictions on Russian energy could ease added further downside risk, though geopolitical tensions remain a key wild card. Price consolidates within a tightening wedge.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4245/4274
- Support: 4180/4151
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 60.13/60.79
- Support: 57.25/56.60
Gold retreated to around $4,186, sliding over 1% from six-week highs as profit-taking kicked in after a strong rally. Analysts view the pullback as temporary, with expectations of an 89% chance of a December Fed cut keeping the broader bullish trend intact. Market attention now shifts to the upcoming U.S. data.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 47721/48033
- Support: 47086/46769
The Dow futures rose 0.39%, lifted by Boeing’s 10% surge and strong Fed-cut expectations (89%). Technically, price is holding above 47,086 support, with buyers defending the demand zone. A rebound toward 47,721 resistance remains likely if the support floor continues to hold.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25837/26182
- Support: 25292/25018
The NAS100 rose 0.59% as tech stocks outperformed ahead of Friday’s PCE data. Technically, price has broken above the descending trendline and is stabilising above 25,292 support. As long as this level holds, a push toward 25,837 resistance remains in the near-term bullish scenario.
BTC
- Resistance: 93065/94517
- Support: 88283/86806
Bitcoin recovered to around $88,500, but market sentiment remains fragile after whale inflows, algo selling, and thin liquidity prompted Monday’s sharp decline. Markets price in nearly a 90% chance of a December Fed cut, though weak ETF flows limit the upside. Technically, BTC faces resistance at $93.065–94,517, with the risk of another pullback if it fails to move higher.
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