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Weak NFP Softens Rate Hike Bets; Focus Shifts to Global Services PMIs

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls came in far below expectations, slowing sharply to 57,000. The previous two months’ figures were revised lower, further weakening market expectations for Fed rate hikes this year.

  • Focus today: With U.S. markets closed for the holiday, attention shifts to Eurozone and U.K. June Services and Composite PMI finals. As services remain the primary growth driver in Europe, any revisions could have a short-term impact on the euro and sterling.

 

Global Market Review 03/07/2026

Equities: Tesla and semiconductor weakness offset the softer NFP report. U.S. indices were mixed: Dow +1.1% to a fresh record close ahead of the holiday, S&P 500 flat (+0.01), Nasdaq ‑0.8%.

Fixed Income & FX: Treasury yields fell; the dollar index slipped 0.56% to 100.83.

Commodities: Gold surged over 2% to $4,124/oz. Oil rebounded 0.5% but remained near pre‑conflict lows.

 

Key Events Today:

U.S. Holiday

  • 07:00 AU Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **
  • 08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **
  • 15:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **
  • 16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **
  • 16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **
  • 23:00 BoE Gov Bailey Speech ***

 

Key Data and Events Coming Week (GMT+8)

  • Monday: GERMANY Factory Orders. EU Retail Sales & PPI, US ISM Services PMI
  • Tuesday: GERMANY Industrial Production, US Balance of Trade
  • Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • Thursday: FOMC Minutes, ECB Minutes, CN CPI &PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims & Existing Home Sales
  • Friday: GERMANY CPI, CA Unemployment Rate

 

Markets Analysis 03/07/2026

20260703 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1474 / 1.1509
  • Support: 1.1396 / 1.1360

Weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls indirectly boosted EUR/USD, ending its two-day pullback on Thursday and briefly lifting it above 1.1470 to a near two-week high.

Analyst View: EUR/USD briefly touched the 20-day moving average at 1.1470 before retreating, keeping that level as key resistance for another test today.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260703 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3414 / 1.3461
  • Support: 1.3339 / 1.3302

Weaker-than-expected U.S. June nonfarm payrolls renewed pressure on the dollar, helping sterling surge to its highest level in over two weeks and post its largest gain since late May.

Analyst View: Breaking above the 20-day MA at 1.3300 turned that level into support, with momentum now pointing above 1.3400.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260703 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 161.58 / 162.07
  • Support: 160.81 / 160.42

USD/JPY suffered a sharp decline from its 40-year high yesterday, amid reports that Japanese authorities may no longer provide advance signals.

Analyst View: USD/JPY posted its steepest drop since May 6, breaking below the 10-day MA and hovering near the 20-day MA. Holding this level will determine whether a correction or a rebound follows.

Bias: Correction

20260703 US Crude Oil Futures (AUG) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 69.56 / 70.19
  • Support: 67.54 / 66.93

On Thursday, oil prices showed little change, pausing near pre-conflict levels. Improved tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and easing supply disruptions continued to weigh on prices.

Analyst View: Oil hovered near $68 as improved tanker traffic and easing supply concerns kept prices down. Bears are in control, but bargain buying could appear soon.

Bias: Bearish consolidation

20260703 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4215/4267
  • Support: 4111/4046

20260703 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 65.43/67.31
  • Support: 59.32/57.40

After U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, reducing prospects for Fed rate hikes this year, precious metals extended their rally. Gold rebounded above $4,100 yesterday, while silver closed near $61.

Analyst View: Gold extended gains after breaking above the 10-day MA and is now testing the 20-day MA near $4,200. A close above would confirm a break from the lower range and strengthen bullish momentum.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260703 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 52,950 / 53,151
  • Support: 52,536 / 52,337

The Dow hit fresh record highs, up 2% for the week and marking its longest winning streak since October 2024.

Analyst View: Momentum remains strong, with upside targets above 53,000.

Bias: Bullish at highs

20260703 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 29,732 / 30,087
  • Support: 29,158 / 28,871

Nasdaq fell as semiconductor stocks slumped, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 5.44%.

Analyst View: Price action now consolidates between support above 29,000 and resistance at the 10/20-day MA confluence.

Bias: Short‑term bearish

20260703 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 62,572/63,497
  • Support: 59,580/58,640

Bitcoin gained on Thursday and briefly topped $62,000 as softer-than-expected U.S. payrolls data eased expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Analyst View: Bitcoin rebounded for a second day, breaking above the 10-day MA and approaching the 20-day MA. A breakout would confirm a move out of the recent low-range consolidation.

Bias: Moderate rebound

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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